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re: Herd immunity is gaining fast traction, peaking now...
Posted on 7/11/20 at 5:41 pm to chillmonster
Posted on 7/11/20 at 5:41 pm to chillmonster
quote:
Considering all of the information collected in the past 6 months the death rate is supposed to land between 0.5-1%.
0.25% is the max. It's likely well under 0.2%.
Also, you can't just apply that rate to the entire population really. It'll put you in the ball park, but to get a truly accurate number you need to take the other factors such as age, pre-existing conditions, etc into account. Then look at the number of people who fall into that category and count from there.
For example, the rate for people under 18 is nearly 0. That is 75 million out of a population of 331 million. Take them out of the equation pretty much completely and now you are down to 256 million to draw from.
In the next age bracket you have the 18-44 crowd. That makes up 113 million people. I don't know the latest numbers, feel free to look them up, but I know it's also extremely low. Down in the less than 0.2% area.
After that you start to get the increases with the remaining 143 million. At the top end you'll get rates above the average. But still pretty low.
So you've already gotten a number way lower than what you say, and we haven't even filtered out the ones with existing conditions that make up the biggest deaths of the age groups.
TLDR: Your numbers are grossly overstated.
2
Posted on 7/11/20 at 5:50 pm to Tidemeister
You seriously believe this baw? 
If you do, I'll have what you're having
If you do, I'll have what you're having
Posted on 7/11/20 at 6:02 pm to 3down10
quote:
TLDR: Your numbers are grossly overstated.
Wishful thinking masquerading as policy is what has gotten us here. I remember when 100k dead was an impossible overstatement.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 6:17 pm to chillmonster
quote:
Wishful thinking masquerading as policy is what has gotten us here. I remember when 100k dead was an impossible overstatement.
I'm not sure what this has to do with you grossly overstating the truth.
But.
Knowing what we know now, there was no reason to shut the country down to start with. The goal was never to prevent every case, it use to be about making sure the hospitals didn't get overloaded. And that has not happened.
Now suddenly you expect every death to be prevented?
This post was edited on 7/11/20 at 7:34 pm
Posted on 7/11/20 at 6:30 pm to 3down10
A vaccine is the only thing that ends this nightmare. If we can get one....
Posted on 7/11/20 at 6:35 pm to Evolved Simian
That same study showed that those living outside of New York City came in positive at a MUCH lower rate
Posted on 7/11/20 at 6:40 pm to Capstone2017
Sweden has a death rate 10x higher than its neighbors, I am sure you would feel much different about “not being affected” if that was one of your family members
Posted on 7/11/20 at 6:44 pm to 3down10
“nO eViDeNcE oF aN iNcReAsE aFteR rEoPenInG”
You nailed it!
You nailed it!
Posted on 7/11/20 at 6:44 pm to 3down10
That’s how most viruses work, they prey on the old and weaker of society. I know you really feel like you stumbled upon some great scientific fact to distinguish Covid from other viruses.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 7:34 pm to Tidemeister
How many countries have achieved herd immunity so far?
Is the immunity gaining fast traction? Or is the idea herd immunity can work gaining fast traction?
There is an important distinction between the two. I would love it, but hope by itself is not a strategy.
Is the immunity gaining fast traction? Or is the idea herd immunity can work gaining fast traction?
There is an important distinction between the two. I would love it, but hope by itself is not a strategy.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 7:34 pm to 3down10
quote:
I'm not sure what this has to do with you grossly overstating the truth.
But.
Knowing what we know now, there was no reason to shut the country down to start with. The goal was never to prevent every case, it use to be about making such the hospitals didn't get overloaded. And that has not happened.
Now suddenly you expect every death to be prevented?
That's not an overstatement. It's just math.
You guys are fricking unbelievable, dude. Is that the narrative now? The point of the quarantine, social distancing, and mask mandates were to stem the increase in cases with the aim of falling a certain level of new cases. Once that happened we were to utilize contact tracing to isolate, control, and eventually eliminate the virus. It is a plan that has worked perfectly in countries run by adults.
We in the US are seeing an increase in cases and deaths again because some politicians saw the positive effect of the half-measures in half this country and decided to declare a glorious victory.
fricking.
Morons.
I'm so over this shite. All I want is some damned football so I can happily sit at home and pretend I live in a universe where ours is not the worst government in the developed world.
This post was edited on 7/11/20 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 7/11/20 at 7:36 pm to Rip Torn
quote:
That’s how most viruses work, they prey on the old and weaker of society. I know you really feel like you stumbled upon some great scientific fact to distinguish Covid from other viruses.
I was talking about how to generate accurate stats.
Go work on your reading comp.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 7:38 pm to chillmonster
quote:
That's not an overstatement. It's just math.
You guys are fricking unbelievable, dude. Is that the narrative now? The point of the quarantine, social distancing, and mask mandates were to stem the increase in cases with the aim of falling a certain level of number cases. Once that happened we were to utilize contact tracing to isolate, control, and eventually eliminate the virus. It is a plan that has worked perfectly in countries run by adults.
We in the US are seeing an increase in cases and deaths again because some politicians saw the positive effect of the half-measures in half this country and decided to declare a glorious victory.
fricking.
Morons.
I'm so over this shite. All I want is some damned football so I can happily sit at home and pretend I live in a universe where ours is not the worst government in the developed world.
It's bad math. If you want to generate some stats to try and convince people of it, then fricking do it right.
Getting pissed off at other people because you don't understand the need to put data into context.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 7:41 pm to Woodreaux
quote:
Herd immunity is gaining fast traction, peaking now...
How many countries have achieved herd immunity so far?
Is the immunity gaining fast traction? Or is the idea herd immunity can work gaining fast traction?
There is an important distinction between the two. I would love it, but hope by itself is not a strategy.
I wouldn't call it a strategy, it's the same pattern for virus over millions of years and is how it's naturally dealt with.
Not sure how long it takes, but I do know the more people try to mitigate it, the longer it takes to reach that point. But you get a sharper spike. It was my understanding that the goal was to keep the spike from going beyond the healthcare. Not this make believe land some have created where everyone must be immune.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 7:43 pm to Woodreaux
quote:
How many countries have achieved herd immunity so far?
None. Other countries that have it under control have done so because they reduced the number of infections enough to contact trace and spot quarantine. That’s not an option in the US.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 7:53 pm to Tidemeister
We aren't damn cows.I'm sick of hearing herd immunity.
This is just more dumb crap that we have to hear.
Use common sense and wait for something that can treat the disease and then maybe a vaccination.
Don't invite this crap on ourselves to spread to others and don't act like a bunch of dumbasses.
It's pretty damn simple,but we have too many simple thinking folks wandering around.
Common sense,get you some.
This is just more dumb crap that we have to hear.
Use common sense and wait for something that can treat the disease and then maybe a vaccination.
Don't invite this crap on ourselves to spread to others and don't act like a bunch of dumbasses.
It's pretty damn simple,but we have too many simple thinking folks wandering around.
Common sense,get you some.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 7:56 pm to 3down10
quote:
It's bad math. If you want to generate some stats to try and convince people of it, then fricking do it right.
Getting pissed off at other people because you don't understand the need to put data into context.
I'm not pissed. I'm exasperated with the resilience of this disease. . .
No, I don't mean COVID-19. I mean the disease of confident stupidity that's rampant in America. It's impervious to evidence and mutates faster than diseases in a wet-market. That, even more than covid, is the pathogen at the root of this mess, and there's no vaccine in sight.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 8:16 pm to chillmonster
People didn’t pay attention to Jaws. And the crazy mayor pushing for tourism. We still don’t know the long term effects of this thing. Just way too many unknowns to be going to covid parties or trying for herd immunity. Now they’re forcing the schools back open so. People can go back to work. They care more about money than people.
Posted on 7/11/20 at 9:04 pm to Tigerman97
quote:
Thoughts as to why?
Clearly, the break throughs with the anti-viral and steroid combo is contributing to this reality. But is it the sole reason? Is it because the age of the infected has gone down considerably? Is it because the virus isn't as strong right now due to heat, humidity, UV light, etc...?
Just a thought but it may be due to decreased immunity overall due to the body simply working harder in cold weather to survive. I can only speak for myself but I am worn out Fishing a few hours in the winter but barely winded in the same amount of time in summer.....the same is true working out doors...at 80 degrees and high humidity I can work in the yard all day but at 40 degrees I’ll be tired after 4 hours of yard work. I ain’t a scientist but it seems like the body just has to work harder in winter than summer and that may have an effect on overall immunity. Couple this with being indoors and especially indoors with crowds during the holidays and I would bet overall immunity is slightly lower. Just a theory
Posted on 7/11/20 at 9:29 pm to Gtmodawg
it's distressing to see all he scared nancies out there gobbling up all the fauci vomit. oh, yeah, it's trump's fault. they want to destroy the middle class, give the government more power over our personal lives, force dangerous vaccines on us, and why? for a flu virus? it's just not that bad. it kills old people, people in bad health and a few unluckies.
if you were operating in a vacuum and the problem was to stop this flu virus, then you could go all out. there are consequences to every decision we make. you guys who act like throwing 40 million people out of work to stop a virus THAT CAN'T BE STOPPED are just insane. Even your experts admit that it cannot be stopped! lock down for 2 months, 3 months, 4 months. as soon as you open up, GUESS WHAT? the virus starts spreading again. this stupid countries that keep shutting down over and over, and the ones that think they've stopped it. what happens when they start commerce with other countries again? Yeah, that's right, covid comes back.
besides there are effective treatments some of these other countries are using, but we're not allowed to mention them because we have to have a solution from big pharma. it's so damn corrupt it's disgusting.
if you were operating in a vacuum and the problem was to stop this flu virus, then you could go all out. there are consequences to every decision we make. you guys who act like throwing 40 million people out of work to stop a virus THAT CAN'T BE STOPPED are just insane. Even your experts admit that it cannot be stopped! lock down for 2 months, 3 months, 4 months. as soon as you open up, GUESS WHAT? the virus starts spreading again. this stupid countries that keep shutting down over and over, and the ones that think they've stopped it. what happens when they start commerce with other countries again? Yeah, that's right, covid comes back.
besides there are effective treatments some of these other countries are using, but we're not allowed to mention them because we have to have a solution from big pharma. it's so damn corrupt it's disgusting.
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