Started By
Message
My Official Elite Program Rankings
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:14 pm
I created a system a few years ago to rate the All-Time programs of College Football..... this system credits programs with a long history, however it rewards programs more so for recent accomplishments.
Here's the general formula:
**Based upon the Final AP Poll results of each season
**1st place finish receives 75 points (which is a 3x multiplier for winning the title).... 2nd place is 24 points, 3rd place is 23 points, etc.
**The most recent 10 seasons are all given full credit due to the fact they were recent.
**All seasons 51 years ago or longer receive just half credit.... (take the AP Poll points for those seasons and multiply by .5)
**Seasons 11-50 years back are given partial credit on a sliding scale... with each passing year dropping down in the amount of credit given. So for instance, results from the 2009 season are given 98.75% credit. Results from the 2008 season are given 97.5% credit, and so forth until you hit 51 years ago in which half credit is given.
**This is meant to rate the programs in terms of how Elite they are now. Yes, Clemson is near the top in the modern day, but their subpar history cannot be ignored. The opposite is true of Nebraska. They are horrible now, but you cannot totally discount their history. There has to be a balance of the two, and I think both recent success and historical success should be weighed when deciding which programs are Elite.
Here are the Final 2019 Rankings:
1. Alabama- 1,206 points
2. Ohio State- 962
3. Oklahoma- 960
4. Notre Dame- 829
5. USC- 791
6. Michigan- 720
7. Nebraska- 691
8. LSU- 662 (up from #11)
9. Texas- 643 (down from #8)
10. Florida St.- 592 (down from #9)
11. Miami- 587- down from #10)
12. Florida- 575
13. Penn St.- 560
14. Tennessee- 504
15. Auburn- 492
16. Georgia- 489
17. Clemson- 482
18. Michigan St.- 348
19. UCLA- 339
20. Washington- 299
21. Wisconsin- 288 (up from #22)
22. Texas A&M- 284 (down from #21)
23. Arkansas- 269
24. Oregon- 255 (up from #26)
25. TCU- 248
Here's the general formula:
**Based upon the Final AP Poll results of each season
**1st place finish receives 75 points (which is a 3x multiplier for winning the title).... 2nd place is 24 points, 3rd place is 23 points, etc.
**The most recent 10 seasons are all given full credit due to the fact they were recent.
**All seasons 51 years ago or longer receive just half credit.... (take the AP Poll points for those seasons and multiply by .5)
**Seasons 11-50 years back are given partial credit on a sliding scale... with each passing year dropping down in the amount of credit given. So for instance, results from the 2009 season are given 98.75% credit. Results from the 2008 season are given 97.5% credit, and so forth until you hit 51 years ago in which half credit is given.
**This is meant to rate the programs in terms of how Elite they are now. Yes, Clemson is near the top in the modern day, but their subpar history cannot be ignored. The opposite is true of Nebraska. They are horrible now, but you cannot totally discount their history. There has to be a balance of the two, and I think both recent success and historical success should be weighed when deciding which programs are Elite.
Here are the Final 2019 Rankings:
1. Alabama- 1,206 points
2. Ohio State- 962
3. Oklahoma- 960
4. Notre Dame- 829
5. USC- 791
6. Michigan- 720
7. Nebraska- 691
8. LSU- 662 (up from #11)
9. Texas- 643 (down from #8)
10. Florida St.- 592 (down from #9)
11. Miami- 587- down from #10)
12. Florida- 575
13. Penn St.- 560
14. Tennessee- 504
15. Auburn- 492
16. Georgia- 489
17. Clemson- 482
18. Michigan St.- 348
19. UCLA- 339
20. Washington- 299
21. Wisconsin- 288 (up from #22)
22. Texas A&M- 284 (down from #21)
23. Arkansas- 269
24. Oregon- 255 (up from #26)
25. TCU- 248
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 2:17 pm
28
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:20 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
This is meant to rate the programs in terms of how Elite they are now.
Clearly having Nebraska in the top 10 proves how present minded these rankings are.
ETA. I can't spell.
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:21 pm to BHMKyle
Actually, college football started in the year 2000, so please only include rankings from the last 20 years.
Sincerely,
LSU Fans
Sincerely,
LSU Fans
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:26 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
1. Alabama- 1,206 points
2. Ohio State- 962
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:27 pm to BHMKyle
Biggest Gainers this year:
+70 points: #8 LSU... moved up 3 spots
+21 points: #17 Clemson
+19 points: #24 Oregon... moved up 2 spots
+17 points: #16 Georgia
+16 points: #2 Ohio State
+15 points: #27 Minnesota... moved up 3 spots
+14 points: #21 Wisconsin... moved up 1 spot
+14 points: #3 Oklahoma
+13 points: #12 Florida
+10 points: #13 Penn State
Biggest Losers:
-11 points: #7 Nebraska
-9 points: #5 USC
-8 points: #11 Miami (dropped 1 spot)
-7 points: #10 Florida St. (dropped 1 spot)
-6 points: #9 Texas (dropped 1 spot)
-5 points: #14 Tennessee
-4 points: #30 Colorado (dropped 2 spots)
-4 points: #19 UCLA
-4 points: #41 Oklahoma St. (dropped 1 spot)
FYI, for the SEC if not mentioned above:
*Alabama gained 9 points
*Auburn gained 8 points
*Texas A&M LOST 3 points
*Arkansas LOST 3 points
*Ole Miss LOST 1 point
*Missouri stayed even
*South Carolina LOST 1 point
*Mississippi State LOST 1 point
*Kentucky stayed even
*Vanderbilt stayed even
+70 points: #8 LSU... moved up 3 spots
+21 points: #17 Clemson
+19 points: #24 Oregon... moved up 2 spots
+17 points: #16 Georgia
+16 points: #2 Ohio State
+15 points: #27 Minnesota... moved up 3 spots
+14 points: #21 Wisconsin... moved up 1 spot
+14 points: #3 Oklahoma
+13 points: #12 Florida
+10 points: #13 Penn State
Biggest Losers:
-11 points: #7 Nebraska
-9 points: #5 USC
-8 points: #11 Miami (dropped 1 spot)
-7 points: #10 Florida St. (dropped 1 spot)
-6 points: #9 Texas (dropped 1 spot)
-5 points: #14 Tennessee
-4 points: #30 Colorado (dropped 2 spots)
-4 points: #19 UCLA
-4 points: #41 Oklahoma St. (dropped 1 spot)
FYI, for the SEC if not mentioned above:
*Alabama gained 9 points
*Auburn gained 8 points
*Texas A&M LOST 3 points
*Arkansas LOST 3 points
*Ole Miss LOST 1 point
*Missouri stayed even
*South Carolina LOST 1 point
*Mississippi State LOST 1 point
*Kentucky stayed even
*Vanderbilt stayed even
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:29 pm to TheSearch
quote:
Clearly having Nebraska in the top 10 proves how present minded these rankings are.
As I said, part of being Elite is having some historical accomplishments. There are a lot of people who grew up watching Nebraska win several championships, and they were a constant fixture in the Top 5 or Top 10. A few bad seasons doesn't erase history.
However, with each passing season their score is slipping away... which is why they were the biggest point loser of the year..... as they also were the year before.
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:38 pm to BHMKyle
IMO- There are 17 Elite programs nowadays. Up until 4 years ago I would have said 16, but Clemson has obviously joined the Club.
Based on the above rankings, 134 points separate #17 Clemson and #18 Michigan State... meanwhile only 110 total points separate #10 Florida State and #17 Clemson.
Within those 17 Elites, there are obviously several tiers:
TIER 1: Alabama
No one comes close, and in fact the gap between them and #2 is the largest gap there is
TIER 2: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, USC
TIER 3: Michigan, Nebraska, LSU, Texas
TIER 4: Florida State, Miami, Florida, Penn State, Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia, Clemson
Based on the above rankings, 134 points separate #17 Clemson and #18 Michigan State... meanwhile only 110 total points separate #10 Florida State and #17 Clemson.
Within those 17 Elites, there are obviously several tiers:
TIER 1: Alabama
No one comes close, and in fact the gap between them and #2 is the largest gap there is
TIER 2: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, USC
TIER 3: Michigan, Nebraska, LSU, Texas
TIER 4: Florida State, Miami, Florida, Penn State, Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia, Clemson
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:40 pm to BHMKyle
Good work on this Kyle. I truly think your formula here consistently looks like the most reasonable and balanced ranking of teams historically as I've seen.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:45 pm to BHMKyle
quote:there's really no reason to consider anything beyond the Top 16 "elite" in CFB. the line I draw is anything but a coincidence, as well.
Here are the Final 2019 Rankings:
1. Alabama- 1,206 points
2. Ohio State- 962
3. Oklahoma- 960
4. Notre Dame- 829
5. USC- 791
6. Michigan- 720
7. Nebraska- 691
8. LSU- 662 (up from #11)
9. Texas- 643 (down from #8)
10. Florida St.- 592 (down from #9)
11. Miami- 587- down from #10)
12. Florida- 575
13. Penn St.- 560
14. Tennessee- 504
15. Auburn- 492
16. Georgia- 489
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Good work on this Kyle. I truly think your formula here consistently looks like the most reasonable and balanced ranking of teams historically as I've seen.
Thank you
I wish I had the time to go back and get an annual ranking for each past season. I'd love to know when Alabama took the #1 position. They solidified it under Saban, but they may have been #1 even prior to him arriving.... I just don't know. They were certainly in that Top 2 or Top 3 at the time of his hiring.
I'd also love to know how high Nebraska was at their peak. If giving full credit for recent success, they were probably pretty close to #1 at the end of the 2001 season when they played for that Title..... its been a complete free fall since. At their current pace, they are probably only 15 years or so away from being #17 unless they somehow turn their program around.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 2:57 pm to BHMKyle
About right
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:00 pm to BHMKyle
So how many points did Yale have because they have more national championships than anybody including Alabama at 18? Princeton has 15 national championships. Just curious what did their point total add up to?
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:01 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
I wish I had the time to go back and get an annual ranking for each past season. I'd love to know when Alabama took the #1 position. They solidified it under Saban, but they may have been #1 even prior to him arriving.... I just don't know. They were certainly in that Top 2 or Top 3 at the time of his hiring.
I'd also love to know how high Nebraska was at their peak. If giving full credit for recent success, they were probably pretty close to #1 at the end of the 2001 season when they played for that Title..... its been a complete free fall since. At their current pace, they are probably only 15 years or so away from being #17 unless they somehow turn their program around.
Yea - a "point in time" ranking and a "over a certain number of years" ranking would definitely be interesting
As in - "Rankings from 1950-2019", "Rankings through 2007" or "Rankings over last 25 years".
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
As in - "Rankings from 1950-2019", "Rankings through 2007" or "Rankings over last 25 years".
I actually did this 2 hours ago
Decade Rankings (2019-2019)
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:04 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
I actually did this 2 hours ago
Yea, and I appreciated that work. I meant specifically using Kyle's rating system that he put together and over the entire country, not just the SEC.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Ohhh I didn’t read the whole thread
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:06 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
14. Tennessee- 504
15. Auburn- 492
16. Georgia- 489
17. Clemson- 482
Tennessee's real free fall could come next year.
After 2017, these four teams looked like this:
14. Tennessee- 514
15. Auburn- 489
16. Georgia- 458
17. Clemson- 389
They led Clemson by 125 points.
Now they lead Auburn by just 12 points.... Georgia by just 15 points.... and Clemson by just 22 points.
It's not impossible that Tennessee drops all the way down to #17 this time next year.... and they were easily #8 or #9 or so going into the year 2000.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:13 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
1. Alabama- 1,206 points
2. Ohio State- 962
3. Oklahoma- 960
4. Notre Dame- 829
5. USC- 791
6. Michigan- 720
7. Nebraska- 691
8. LSU- 662 (up from #11)
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:13 pm to Rawanduncut
quote:
So how many points did Yale have because they have more national championships than anybody including Alabama at 18? Princeton has 15 national championships. Just curious what did their point total add up to?
This starts with 1936 because that's when the AP Poll originated. I have only tabulated the points for about 50 programs, so I don't know where they would rank... but my guess is they'd be pretty low. And the fact they are no longer FBS means they'd continue to drop with each passing year.
Yale only has 4 AP Top 25 finishes, and the most recent was 1960..... so based off this formula, they only have 27 points. To put that into perspective, Kentucky has 66 points and Vanderbilt has 12 points. So their history would still rank them ahead of Vandy but not by much..... probably in the Top 80 or so all-time.
And for the record, I don't think any results should count prior to 1936. I mean at one point in the 1800s, there were just two programs. So just because Princeton beat Rutgers in one single game doens't mean that should count as a National Title..... and it would count the same amount in this formula as Texas' 1970 title.... which doesn't seem right.
IMO, anything prior to WW2 is ancient history. I'll start with 1936 because we have an established poll in that year, but prior to that there's hardly anyone alive that remembers anything.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:15 pm to BHMKyle
Im not saying your system is bad, but if your objective is to "rate a program in terms of how elite they are now" then you cant end up with Nebraska above Clemson.
I recommend a more severe drop off. remember, Nebraska last won a nat'l championship in 1997. current college players were not ALIVE then.
I recommend a more severe drop off. remember, Nebraska last won a nat'l championship in 1997. current college players were not ALIVE then.
Page 1 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News