Started By
Message

re: My Official Elite Program Rankings

Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:59 pm to
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:59 pm to
quote:

because some programs have great history before 1936 that is being completely wiped out because it is starting at 1936.


I mean I guess. But in some ways, the game played in 1935 and earlier is not even the same game played today.

The forward pass didn't come along until 1906. Do we really want to count championships from the 1800s when the kids playing wore leather helmets and there was no passing?

The 1936 poll... which is counted by the way... has Santa Clara #5... Penn #10... Yale #12... Dartmouth #13... Duquesne #14... Fordham #15... Marquette #20.

None of these programs even have FBS football nowadays. If you go back before 1936, things look even more out of place.

And the #1 reason not to go back to 1936 is simply due to the fact that there was no national poll conducted back them. How do you find the 25 best teams from 1920 when there was no rating system to figure that out?

Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

What about a few bad decades?


It will add up. That's why Minnesota with their 4 National Titles is only ranked #27... up from #30 last season though.

If this were 1960, they'd be a Top 5 or 6 program..... but they've been sliding backwards for the most part ever since. Nebraska is the next generation's Minnesota. Eventually their history will be so far back in time, they'll also drop out of the Top 10 and continue to slide with each passing year.
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 4:15 pm
Posted by Arksulli
Fayetteville
Member since Aug 2014
25195 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

And the #1 reason not to go back to 1936 is simply due to the fact that there was no national poll conducted back them. How do you find the 25 best teams from 1920 when there was no rating system to figure that out?




Arkansas went undefeated in 1909 and beat some very good teams. They were crowned "Champions of the South".

Great. A wonderful season for the Hogs! But where would that fall in an actual ranking?

Like you said, we have to have a cut off point. Otherwise we have Princeton and Yale pissing on Alabama and Notre Dame when it comes to total titles.
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
140397 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:06 pm to
Nerd
Posted by Oklahomey
Bucksnort, TN
Member since Mar 2013
5008 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:11 pm to
I bow to you Kyle. Perfect system and formula you came up with. Kudos sir!
Posted by tigger1
Member since Mar 2005
3476 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:11 pm to
There are polls and many math systems way before 1936.

If you research college football they are easy to find.

Some of the math systems even by 1935 had a post bowl ranking, long before the AP and UP poll would.

I have polls dating to 1903 boxed up, as I research college football all the time.

Never base rankings on eye candy polls, many math systems are better even in the 30s over polls. Not all of them as one was totally based on scoring only.

btw Santa Clara was a great team in the 1930's and may have been one of the top 2-3 teams if not the best team in the nation, I have seen film of those 2 team (36-37) and they were well coached machines. Those 2 teams had talent, coaching and leadership.
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 4:13 pm
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Garbage.

So conference titles aren't counted?


Do you want to count a MAC Championship the same as an SEC Championship?

Do you think it's fair that Florida State would get credit for 11 ACC Titles in a 12-year period from 1992-2003 when they had almost zero in-conference competition?

If you can make the conferences exactly equal in strength, then we can start counting conference titles. But until then, that's a terrible way to compare programs.

quote:

UT hasn't been relevant in 20 years and still ranks ahead of UGA?


Hate to say it, but Tennessee has a National Title 18 year's more recent than our last one. They also have a second major poll title from the 1950s which we do not have (No 1942 was not a major poll title).

They have an extra Title and one of those was more recent than our last. They also have 44 AP Top 25 finishes to our 38..... They have 14 AP Top 5 finishes compared to our 11.

The fact that we've had more recent success than them makes it very close.... in fact, we're probably one year away... two max... from passing the Vols all-time.

But there is a reason they are still slightly ahead and that's because quite frankly they've had more past success. It really is pretty simple.
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 4:23 pm
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:19 pm to
quote:

There are polls and many math systems way before 1936.

If you research college football they are easy to find.


Yes. Based on a computer which didn't exist back in those days. How do we know if those polls are at all accurate? Plus there would be zero consistency. You want to use Helms or some system like that up through one year, but then switch over to some other poll for a different year? No thanks.

Secondly, it's not fair to count a title won by a team in 1869 when there were only 2 or 3 programs in existence. How unfair is that?

Princeton counts 26 National Titles..... all prior to 1936. Again, just because they beat Rutgers in 1869, that gets to count as a National Title the same way Texas' 1970 title counts?

No thanks. That sounds like garbage.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:21 pm to
quote:

Never base rankings on eye candy polls, many math systems are better even in the 30s over polls. Not all of them as one was totally based on scoring only.


Okay. So like SP+, which many people swear by.

That system has Ohio State and Alabama as the two best teams of 2019. Should I just take away LSU's title they just won this season because SP+ says Ohio State and Alabama were the two best teams?

Again, no thanks. The Final AP Poll makes far more sense than that.

Posted by robstuckinbama
guntersville, al
Member since Dec 2019
124 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:22 pm to
I would like to hear what the rant thinks about Nebraska

why cant they win now?/


Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

why cant they win now?/


Demographics and distance from where most of the elite high school talent is located. An elite high school kid from Miami, Florida does not want to trek up to the frozen tundra to play their college football.

And sadly for the Huskers, I don't see that ever changing.
Posted by Cubssfan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Sep 2003
1110 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:34 pm to
Awesome work Kyle.

I assume you could utilize your formula to create a rating from say 1998 - present, which would only include the BCS era and the CFP era?

I believe that would give a clearer picture of “current” elite program status.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

I assume you could utilize your formula to create a rating from say 1998 - present, which would only include the BCS era and the CFP era?


Yeah. I mean I think you have to go back and count past history because it has a large part in what makes programs elite. However, if you want to know the points accumulated with this formula just since 1998, it would look like this:

1. Alabama- 562
2. Ohio State- 456
3. LSU- 412
4. Oklahoma- 367
5. Florida- 328
6. USC- 320
7. Florida St.- 302
8. Clemson- 292
9. Texas- 263
10. Georgia- 247
11. Oregon- 228
12. Auburn- 211
13. Wisconsin- 195
14. Miami- 191
15. Michigan- 184
16. Virginia Tech- 164
17. TCU- 159
18. Boise State- 151
19. Penn State- 150
20. Tennessee- 142
21. Notre Dame- 138
22. Stanford- 127
23. Michigan St.- 120
24. Kansas St.- 107
25. Iowa- 103

FYI, Nebraska is #27 just ahead of #28 South Carolina and #29 Missouri.
Posted by PeeJayScammedGT
Kennesaw, GA
Member since Oct 2019
2148 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 5:17 pm to
Use your system for 1950 and later

Many players that played as late as the 1960s would get their azzes handed to them playing AAAAAAA HS FB in the Metro Atl Area, my point is that the game and the players have changed so much it's likely better to use 1950 as a starting point for any fair analysis of CFB
Posted by Old Money
Member since Sep 2012
36363 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 5:20 pm to
quote:

So yes, indirectly SOS is factored in.


Good point, just making you you gave it thought is all
Posted by Dude88
Member since Sep 2019
744 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 5:22 pm to
Nebraska was really bad in the 1941-1961 period. It’s not just the present day.

And their good days before the 40s mostly don’t count in this, since the polls started in 1936.
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 5:50 pm
Posted by texashorn
Member since May 2008
13122 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 5:28 pm to
quote:

All-Time programs



quote:

Seasons 11-50 years back are given partial credit on a sliding scale



quote:

All seasons 51 years ago or longer receive just half credit

Posted by Cubssfan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Sep 2003
1110 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 5:53 pm to
Thanks Kyle. I think that list looks much more representative of what most people would consider “elite” programs in the modern era of college football. I see it puts Michigan and Notre Dame more in their proper place on the list.
Posted by Cfrobel
Member since Nov 2019
272 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 5:57 pm to
Nebraska had 4 four star recruits from Florida in their 2020 class...
Posted by Gary Busey
Member since Dec 2014
33277 posts
Posted on 1/14/20 at 6:10 pm to
Holy balls, this is some solid work.
first pageprev pagePage 3 of 4Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow SECRant for SEC Football News
Follow us on Twitter and Facebook to get the latest updates on SEC Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitter