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Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:23 pm to BHMKyle
Rule 1
Never base an all time list of college football programs based on a poll.
Example look at espn final poll this year with:
1. Ohio St
2. Clemson
3. LSU
You have these same problems with the AP poll many years.
Never base an all time list of college football programs based on a poll.
Example look at espn final poll this year with:
1. Ohio St
2. Clemson
3. LSU
You have these same problems with the AP poll many years.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:24 pm to BHMKyle
Good work, but how many hours did you spend on this?
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:24 pm to BHMKyle
Is there no SoS factor? Some teams have had easier schedules and divisions as we know
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:26 pm to BHMKyle
How do you handle 2003? I assume LSU only gets 24 points instead of 75?
ETA: Plus the multiplier, whatever it may be.
ETA: Plus the multiplier, whatever it may be.
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:28 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
**All seasons 51 years ago or longer receive just half credit.... (take the AP Poll points for those seasons and multiply by .5) **Seasons 11-50 years back are given partial credit on a sliding scale... with each passing year dropping down in the amount of credit given. So for instance, results from the 2009 season are given 98.75% credit. Results from the 2008 season are given 97.5% credit, and so forth until you hit 51 years ago in which half credit is given.
I like the idea, but think 10 years is too short for full credit. 10 years is a blip. 15-20 would be more appropriate, IMO, then start the sliding scale at that point.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:33 pm to BearBait09
quote:
Im not saying your system is bad, but if your objective is to "rate a program in terms of how elite they are now" then you cant end up with Nebraska above Clemson.
You absolutely can.
Again, being "Elite" takes some history. If I came up with the "Strongest Programs This Year" list then yes, Clemson would be far ahead of Nebraska.... and pretty much everyone else for that matter.
Nebraska has 48 AP Top 25 finishes
Clemson has 33 AP Top 25 finishes
Nebraska has 32 AP Top 10 finishes
Clemson has 11 AP Top 10 finishes
Nebraska has 5 National Championships to Clemson's 3.... and while yes, Clemson has two that are very recent, Nebraska has three from the 1990s which were in the grand scheme of things not THAT long ago.
Any ranking of elite programs that has Clemson ahead of Nebraska would be far too skewed towards the present day. You can't just ignore 80 years of history because one program has had a great past four seasons. There has to be a balance.
Clemson has come a very long way in a quick period of time.... but they have a long way to go to reach that Top 7 or 8.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:34 pm to Bonkers119
quote:
Does this mean we are a blue blood, now that we're top 10?
It's debatable. But prior to a few years ago, it wouldn't have been debatable, so I'll allow it.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:35 pm to BHMKyle
You have done great work and i respect the amount of time and effort it takes to do this. The only problem is if you take away certain years of history that happened that wouldn't be very accurate to say "all time programs" because some programs have great history before 1936 that is being completely wiped out because it is starting at 1936.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:40 pm to tigger1
quote:
Rule 1
Never base an all time list of college football programs based on a poll.
So 65 media members who watch the games and pay attention weekly, submitting their thoughts is not a good barometer? So what would you base it on? Just one person's opinion?
quote:
Example look at espn final poll this year with:
1. Ohio St
2. Clemson
3. LSU
Well I don't use the ESPN Poll, I juse the AP Poll... and LSU #1, Clemson #2, and Ohio State #3 as the AP Poll ranks them seems logical to me.
Furthermore, its not entirely based on the poll. As I explained, the National Champion each season gets a 3x multiplier, which is worth 75 points. So it accounts for Championships as well... not entirely just the poll results.
And FYI, I do give credit for historical split titles... equal credit for the Coaches' Poll Champ if it was different than the AP.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:40 pm to BHMKyle
Am i missing something. U said LSU was the biggest mover with 70 points, but I thought the champion get 75. And Clemson would get 24 but u have em getting 21 points
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:41 pm to EasterEgg
quote:
Good work, but how many hours did you spend on this?
It took me a couple of hours two years ago. Now I have it set up that after a Final AP Poll is released, it takes only 5 minutes to update at the end of each season.
Like I said, wish I could go backwards and get more historical data but it would take far too much time.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:44 pm to Old Money
quote:
Is there no SoS factor? Some teams have had easier schedules and divisions as we know
Good question. That's why I use the AP Poll. The AP Poll basically has a built-in SOS factor.
For instance, this season 9-4 Auburn finished #14 because they played six opponents in the Final Top 10. Meanwhile Boise State, who had a much better record at 12-2, finished just #23. Voters in the AP tend to reward teams for playing a difficult SOS. So a 9-4 record when you play Auburn's schedule might get you a Top 15 finish yet a 9-4 record for a MAC team would not get you a Top 25 finish.
So yes, indirectly SOS is factored in.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:48 pm to BHMKyle
Always interesting to talk about. Glad you posted (below) how the rankings were affected by this years results. Gives added insight.
#1980
#1980
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:49 pm to Midurban
quote:
Am i missing something. U said LSU was the biggest mover with 70 points, but I thought the champion get 75. And Clemson would get 24 but u have em getting 21 points
Yes, but remember, results from 11-50 years ago diminish in points with each passing year.
So yes, LSU picked up 75 points for winning the Title.... but all your final AP Poll points from 1970-2009 lost just a bit of their value since they slipped further back in time.
Looking just at National Titles for LSU...
Your 2019 title is worth 75 points.... and will be for the next ten years since it is "recent history"
Meanwhile your 2007 title is now worth 72.19 points. Your 2003 title is now worth 68.44 points. And your 1958 title is now worth just 37.5 points because it was so long ago. Any title won more than 50 years ago is worth just half credit, so once it gets down to 37.5 points, it stays at that value all-time.
Those 2003 and 2007 titles will continue to lose value with each passing year until they reach 51 years old, then they'll hold steady.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:50 pm to slackster
quote:
How do you handle 2003? I assume LSU only gets 24 points instead of 75?
No. Split titles if awarded by one of the two major polls count full credit. So both LSU and USC get the same credit for '03.... Michigan and Nebraska the same credit for '97, etc.
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:50 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
A few bad seasons doesn't erase history.
What about a few bad decades?
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:52 pm to slackster
quote:
I like the idea, but think 10 years is too short for full credit. 10 years is a blip. 15-20 would be more appropriate, IMO, then start the sliding scale at that point.
I could see that. Auburn's 2010 title is furthest back National Title getting full credit now. Next season their 2010 point value will drop from 75 points to 74.06.... and continue to drop that much until it hits 37.5 points 41 years from now.
Meanwhile Alabama's 2009 Title was discounted this year for the first time.
I think ten years is a good benchmark. I mean in some ways that 2009 season seems like ages ago.
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 4:05 pm
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:54 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
14. Tennessee- 504
17. Clemson- 482
List is shite
This post was edited on 1/14/20 at 3:56 pm
Posted on 1/14/20 at 3:55 pm to BHMKyle
Garbage.
So conference titles aren't counted?
UT hasn't been relevant in 20 years and still ranks ahead of UGA?
Not with UT and Nebraska in there.
So conference titles aren't counted?
UT hasn't been relevant in 20 years and still ranks ahead of UGA?
quote:
This is meant to rate the programs in terms of how Elite they are now
Not with UT and Nebraska in there.
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