Started By
Message
Is there any rational explanation for Auburn's inability to sustain success?
Posted on 10/15/18 at 11:35 pm
Posted on 10/15/18 at 11:35 pm
All trolling aside, it's exceptionally bizarre to be incapable of having back to back elite seasons.
When a team has a great year and gets to 10+ wins, it's normally because they are a very good team. The odds of you having a team the following year are extremely high. Pick any season and look at the teams that finish with 10+ wins. A huge chunk of them will have also done so the prior year.
Programs are normally good, bad, or mediocre in chunks of seasons, which clearly makes the most sense.
A 10 win season isn't even nearly as difficult as it used to be, considering teams now play 2-3 more games a year on average than they used to.
So what gives? How can a program clearly capable of having great seasons be so incapable of having two of them consecutively? Has to be something with the program or culture in some way? The odds of it just being random variance seems pretty low at this point.
When a team has a great year and gets to 10+ wins, it's normally because they are a very good team. The odds of you having a team the following year are extremely high. Pick any season and look at the teams that finish with 10+ wins. A huge chunk of them will have also done so the prior year.
Programs are normally good, bad, or mediocre in chunks of seasons, which clearly makes the most sense.
A 10 win season isn't even nearly as difficult as it used to be, considering teams now play 2-3 more games a year on average than they used to.
So what gives? How can a program clearly capable of having great seasons be so incapable of having two of them consecutively? Has to be something with the program or culture in some way? The odds of it just being random variance seems pretty low at this point.
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 11:35 pm
28
Posted on 10/15/18 at 11:44 pm to PEPE
Good take. Not real sure. I think that's most fans gripe with Gus. The talent is obviously there but the program has been wildly inconsistent under him. National title appearance to 8-4,6-6, back to 8-4, then last years 10-2 run and look destined for 7-5 at best. 7-5 this year is inexcusable
Posted on 10/15/18 at 11:44 pm to PEPE
Gus is so fricking stubborn that he runs the same few plays over and over expecting a different result. He cannot fathom that his bush league high school whirly bird veer bone has been figured out, so he keeps refusing to adjust out of sheer arrogance.
ETA: But he keeps having GREAT weeks at practice.
ETA: But he keeps having GREAT weeks at practice.
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 11:46 pm
Posted on 10/15/18 at 11:50 pm to PEPE
Like any other program It all starts at the top
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 11:51 pm
Posted on 10/15/18 at 11:53 pm to PEPE
His insistence on playing slow white QBs in his system is baffling. They are awful without the threat of a running qb
Posted on 10/15/18 at 11:54 pm to PEPE
It's simple:
This season Auburn was hyped, so naturally they disappoint like they always do when preseason polls have then ranked high.
It's the years when they "have questions" and preseason projections range from 4-8 to 8-4 that they go on a legit run and are legit contenders and have those seasons when they win at least two of Bama, UGA and LSU.
This season Auburn was hyped, so naturally they disappoint like they always do when preseason polls have then ranked high.
It's the years when they "have questions" and preseason projections range from 4-8 to 8-4 that they go on a legit run and are legit contenders and have those seasons when they win at least two of Bama, UGA and LSU.
Posted on 10/15/18 at 11:57 pm to sand mountainDvalues
quote:
His insistence on playing slow white QBs in his system is baffling. They are awful without the threat of a running qb
Yeah, this is one of those instances when the fans really do see exactly what's wrong and legitimately want to know if the coaches are just oblivious or unable to address it.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 12:02 am to PEPE
Check Bama's records prior to Saban. They went up and down the same way. Good about every 3rd year with average years in between. Auburn's problem has been consist coaching on both sides of the ball without HCs that randomly lose and win games they aren't supposed to (mainly Tuberville and Gus) since about Dye was there.
This post was edited on 10/16/18 at 12:05 am
Posted on 10/16/18 at 12:05 am to sawfiddle
The problem sort of predates Gus though. Chizik, Tubberville, Bowden, all of them managed at least 1 great season (Tubbs 2 or so) and yet still weren't able to sustain anything beyond the 1 year. The closest thing to sustained success Auburn ever had was Dye in the 80's but that was 30 years ago.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 12:15 am to PEPE
quote:It's hard to sustain when you have a large instate school that has been consistently cheating since about that same time start with Stallings. They have been on probation constantly for that entire period followed by the giant ponzi scheme that has been the Saban era. That hurts your instate talent and recruiting and your team goes up and down depending on who the other school is paying next and if you need them.
The problem sort of predates Gus though. Chizik, Tubberville, Bowden, all of them managed at least 1 great season (Tubbs 2 or so) and yet still weren't able to sustain anything beyond the 1 year. The closest thing to sustained success Auburn ever had was Dye in the 80's but that was 30 years ago.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 12:23 am to PEPE
Auburn wakes up every morning, looks to the northwest about 130 miles as the crow flies to see what Daddy is doing, and tries to match him. Unfortunately, Daddy had 4 NCs before Auburn won its 1st* (while on probation and barred from post season play).
Bama has had a bedrock-deep championship culture since 1925. You can’t create that out of thin air, $180,000 mercenary QBs and fad of the moment coaches, but Auburn tries.
Bama has had a bedrock-deep championship culture since 1925. You can’t create that out of thin air, $180,000 mercenary QBs and fad of the moment coaches, but Auburn tries.
This post was edited on 10/16/18 at 12:27 am
Posted on 10/16/18 at 12:45 am to PEPE
First off, you're s fantastic poster here.
But to answer your thread, I'm not sure.
Auburn slays us all at times with the right coach. Saying they can't sustain feels right, yet they're WAY up the list of accomplished team in the country.
Right now if you asked anyone if their last 2 coaches were ideal we'd all say no. Yet that would include a magical 2010 season(I'd argue that that season was underrated for them) and a 2013 season in which they were the most impressive team in the country all things considered(they fudged up against one of the most talented teams CFB has ever seen).
2004 Auburn won't ever be appreciated enough.
And their record against Alabama won't ever be appreciated enough(45-36).
Auburn football is incredible and they wouldn't have the historic success or recent success if they weren't capable of sustained excellence.
But to answer your thread, I'm not sure.
Auburn slays us all at times with the right coach. Saying they can't sustain feels right, yet they're WAY up the list of accomplished team in the country.
Right now if you asked anyone if their last 2 coaches were ideal we'd all say no. Yet that would include a magical 2010 season(I'd argue that that season was underrated for them) and a 2013 season in which they were the most impressive team in the country all things considered(they fudged up against one of the most talented teams CFB has ever seen).
2004 Auburn won't ever be appreciated enough.
And their record against Alabama won't ever be appreciated enough(45-36).
Auburn football is incredible and they wouldn't have the historic success or recent success if they weren't capable of sustained excellence.
This post was edited on 10/16/18 at 12:47 am
Posted on 10/16/18 at 12:53 am to PEPE
quote:
Is there any rational explanation for Auburn's inability to sustain success?
All trolling aside, I think we're all just as clueless as everyone else as to why Auburn cant keep it going..
12
9
9
8
Recruiting classes the past 4 years. Talent it there
Posted on 10/16/18 at 12:53 am to jbritt25
Historically, I think it’s because their two biggest rivals have been UA and UGa. Two strong to elite programs. Back when season’s were 10games, that was 20% of your schedule right there. Good chance you’d drop one, so if you lose your bowl game no chance at 10wins. It’s gotten a little easier since the schedules have grown but still, that’s two big games every year. And in the last quarter century+ of divisional play, they’re guaranteed to play LSU, also. Add in the fact they are recruiting against these schools makes it a yearly grind.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 1:25 am to Rabern57
quote:
It's hard to sustain when you have a large instate school that has been consistently cheating since about that same time start with Stallings. They have been on probation constantly for that entire period followed by the giant ponzi scheme that has been the Saban era. That hurts your instate talent and recruiting and your team goes up and down depending on who the other school is paying next and if you need them.
Now this is a damn fine post...
Posted on 10/16/18 at 2:02 am to SoFla Tideroller
quote:saban is the best recruiter ever, no school has bagmen like him..he knows he can’t win without 8 five stars...and he knows no one will catch him
Add in the fact they are recruiting against these schools makes it a yearly grind.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 2:26 am to sand mountainDvalues
quote:
His insistence on playing slow white QBs in his system is baffling. They are awful without the threat of a running qb
But they won 10+ last year and DRAGGED Alabama.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 2:29 am to stomp
I'm starting to think its internal sabotage
Posted on 10/16/18 at 5:33 am to Rabern57
quote:
Rabern57
quote:As usual you can't make a post without referencing Alabama. What you say was only true during the 10 years affected by the sanctions. Yes, then Bama was similar to Auburn. But very few other times in its history has this been the case. Bama has strung 24 and 25 and 7 year runs and others prior to Saban. AU has ~14 or 15 10 win seasons and only once have you had 2 in a row. Bama has ~40 10 win seasons (many of which were when teams played 10-12 games, not the 13-15 they do now) and has strung together numerous such seasons in a row. Bama has been ranked number one 111 weeks in the AP, Auburn 6. Auburn has won 4 major bowl games, Alabama 25, Bama has 16 NCs, AU 2, Bama 26 SECCs, AU 8, and on and on. And you seriously try to compare the 2 programs. You compared Bama's crippled years to Auburn's norm.
Check Bama's records prior to Saban. They went up and down the same way. Good about every 3rd year with average years in between. Auburn's problem has been consist coaching on both sides of the ball without HCs that randomly lose and win games they aren't supposed to (mainly Tuberville and Gus) since about Dye was there
Again, your envy and bitterness have blinded you to reality and makes you look foolish.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 5:49 am to PEPE
It's not rocket science. They do a tremendous job being the little bro in a relatively small pop state. Great footbll but small. They are the one off school there and the hang around and scramble for the next best in Georgia and fill a niche in Florida. But to compete for glory they have to build and grab transfers. Last year was sort of a destination year. They had a ton of 5th year guys they had redshirted and a ton of 5th year OL they had transferred in. And of course Rodney's purchases on the DL and their typical transfer QB. And Malzahn's offense and Steele's defense were tough. And still lost four but they could beat anyone with everything cooking. And at home where they have the greatest home field advantage in America.They have to point to certain years. Unfortunately the fans (and some media) believe they have truly arrived when those years occur and then when they go back to building then the old fire the coach routine begins. That's why GUS almost left for Arky since they have lower expectations and he knew he would have to begin building again. Good news is nothing has changed and they will hang around and build for another run.
Page 1 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News