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The Mississippi State Scheduling Tutorial
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:40 pm
Since it seems nearly every week some publication fawns over all of Dan Mullen's "success" at Mississippi State, it may be a good time to explain that just because the other Bulldogs reside in the SEC West, it does not mean they are racking up quality wins against stellar competition.
Mississippi State has mastered the ability to play the absolute easiest schedule possible while somehow residing the college football's toughest division. It has created a myth that MSU is very competitive. But when you strip away all of the cupcake wins, you find that there is very little left to Dan Mullen's over-hyped resume.
Here is their scheduling tutorial in a nutshell:
#1- Play an FCS Opponent
Result: 8 wins; 0 losses
Dan Mullen has won some lopsided games against some very bad FCS opponents. They've whooped up on Jackson State (2x), Alcorn State (2x), UT-Martin (2x), Northwestern State, and Samford.
#2- One Horrific FBS Opponent
Result: 8 wins; 0 losses
While the opponent might be FBS, the "easy" FBS opponent slot has been undeniably bad. The opponents who have filled this slot on MSU's schedule during the Mullen era have only averaged 3.8 wins per season. Four of the eight opponents in this slot finished the season with just 2 wins or fewer. Absolutely horrific!
#3- One bad FBS Opponent that hovers around .500
Result: 6 wins; 2 losses
The opponents that have filled this slot are all bad teams. But they aren't THAT bad. They are all mid-majors and the've averaged 6.6 wins. Five of the 8 that have filled this slot finished the year with losing records. Still a very easy win for Mullen in most years.
#4- Very mediocre "top" FBS Opponent
Result: 5 wins; 3 losses
So while most every SEC program at least attempts to play a strong Power Conference opponent annually, MSU under Dan Mullen has opted to fill this schedule slot with a Power Conference opponent just twice in 8 years. They also once played BYU in this slot, who is a bit better than your average mid-major, but still not great. Coincidentally, MSU lost every single time they made a slight upgrade to their schedule... they lost to 2009 Georgia Tech, 2013 Oklahoma State, and 2016 BYU. The five wins they have in this slot were against Houston, Louisiana Tech, MTSU, UAB, and Southern Miss. Scott Stricklin should have stuck to the script in those other seasons.
**The total Result of MSU's regular season OOC scheduling during the Mullen era is a record of 27-5... yet only two of those 32 OOC opponents finished in the Top 25. I'm not sure it is possible to get any easier.
#5- Play Kentucky out of the East annually
Result: 7 wins; 1 loss
Kentucky has been by far the weakest Eastern team during the Mullen era, and it just so happens that they are MSU's annual eastern opponent. Very convenient. The Wildcats have averaged just 4.9 wins per season, and they've never finished a season since 2009 with more than 7 wins. Aside from losing to them last year, this was a reliable SEC win for Mullen each and every year. They are the only SEC West team that has such a luxury.
Conclusion:
All of this combined makes it pretty simple for even Mississippi State to reach a bowl game. Here are MSU's results in each opponent category:
8-0 *FCS Opponent
8-0 *Horrific OOC Opponent
6-2 *Bad OOC Opponent
5-3 *Mediocre OOC Opponent
7-1 *Kentucky
So 34 of Mullen's 56 regular season wins came against an overall bad slate of OOC opponents or Kentucky.
He's also somehow managed to play 6 SEC Eastern opponents on a rotating basis that finished with a losing record. He's of course 6-0 against this group.
So in the regular season, he's 40-6 against OOC teams, Kentucky, or teams from the East with a losing record.
Mullen is 16-34 against everyone else. And it's not like "everyone else" means they are good teams. Five of his 15 SEC West wins have come against SEC West opponents who finished their year 4-8 or worse.
Somehow Mullen has fooled just about everyone. The guy wouldn't be winning games if he were coaching at a school with better resources. He's maxing out at MSU because no other SEC school plays such an easy schedule.
Mississippi State has mastered the ability to play the absolute easiest schedule possible while somehow residing the college football's toughest division. It has created a myth that MSU is very competitive. But when you strip away all of the cupcake wins, you find that there is very little left to Dan Mullen's over-hyped resume.
Here is their scheduling tutorial in a nutshell:
#1- Play an FCS Opponent
Result: 8 wins; 0 losses
Dan Mullen has won some lopsided games against some very bad FCS opponents. They've whooped up on Jackson State (2x), Alcorn State (2x), UT-Martin (2x), Northwestern State, and Samford.
#2- One Horrific FBS Opponent
Result: 8 wins; 0 losses
While the opponent might be FBS, the "easy" FBS opponent slot has been undeniably bad. The opponents who have filled this slot on MSU's schedule during the Mullen era have only averaged 3.8 wins per season. Four of the eight opponents in this slot finished the season with just 2 wins or fewer. Absolutely horrific!
#3- One bad FBS Opponent that hovers around .500
Result: 6 wins; 2 losses
The opponents that have filled this slot are all bad teams. But they aren't THAT bad. They are all mid-majors and the've averaged 6.6 wins. Five of the 8 that have filled this slot finished the year with losing records. Still a very easy win for Mullen in most years.
#4- Very mediocre "top" FBS Opponent
Result: 5 wins; 3 losses
So while most every SEC program at least attempts to play a strong Power Conference opponent annually, MSU under Dan Mullen has opted to fill this schedule slot with a Power Conference opponent just twice in 8 years. They also once played BYU in this slot, who is a bit better than your average mid-major, but still not great. Coincidentally, MSU lost every single time they made a slight upgrade to their schedule... they lost to 2009 Georgia Tech, 2013 Oklahoma State, and 2016 BYU. The five wins they have in this slot were against Houston, Louisiana Tech, MTSU, UAB, and Southern Miss. Scott Stricklin should have stuck to the script in those other seasons.
**The total Result of MSU's regular season OOC scheduling during the Mullen era is a record of 27-5... yet only two of those 32 OOC opponents finished in the Top 25. I'm not sure it is possible to get any easier.
#5- Play Kentucky out of the East annually
Result: 7 wins; 1 loss
Kentucky has been by far the weakest Eastern team during the Mullen era, and it just so happens that they are MSU's annual eastern opponent. Very convenient. The Wildcats have averaged just 4.9 wins per season, and they've never finished a season since 2009 with more than 7 wins. Aside from losing to them last year, this was a reliable SEC win for Mullen each and every year. They are the only SEC West team that has such a luxury.
Conclusion:
All of this combined makes it pretty simple for even Mississippi State to reach a bowl game. Here are MSU's results in each opponent category:
8-0 *FCS Opponent
8-0 *Horrific OOC Opponent
6-2 *Bad OOC Opponent
5-3 *Mediocre OOC Opponent
7-1 *Kentucky
So 34 of Mullen's 56 regular season wins came against an overall bad slate of OOC opponents or Kentucky.
He's also somehow managed to play 6 SEC Eastern opponents on a rotating basis that finished with a losing record. He's of course 6-0 against this group.
So in the regular season, he's 40-6 against OOC teams, Kentucky, or teams from the East with a losing record.
Mullen is 16-34 against everyone else. And it's not like "everyone else" means they are good teams. Five of his 15 SEC West wins have come against SEC West opponents who finished their year 4-8 or worse.
Somehow Mullen has fooled just about everyone. The guy wouldn't be winning games if he were coaching at a school with better resources. He's maxing out at MSU because no other SEC school plays such an easy schedule.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:45 pm to BHMKyle
Actually read all of that.
You left out a few key points though.
2014 played a game at South Alabama, and if playing a lower tier school from your neighboring state wasn't bad enough:
2015 played a game at Southern Miss
Then 2016 played UMASS in Foxborough, and at BYU on a Friday night.
You left out a few key points though.
2014 played a game at South Alabama, and if playing a lower tier school from your neighboring state wasn't bad enough:
2015 played a game at Southern Miss
Then 2016 played UMASS in Foxborough, and at BYU on a Friday night.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:47 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
The guy wouldn't be winning games if he were coaching at a school with better resources.
What supports that thought? The fact he takes advantage of weak scheduling? I think you have some points but draw too many conclusions from them.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:53 pm to BHMKyle
Are you mad because he is 19th best and Kirby is 65th?
DISCLAIMER: Part of the reason I gave up season tickets is our sucky OOC schedule.
DISCLAIMER: Part of the reason I gave up season tickets is our sucky OOC schedule.
This post was edited on 6/26/17 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:56 pm to Diamondawg
Mullen's best wins are either over a 9-4 Ole Miss team in 2009 or an 8-5 Auburn team in 2014.
This post was edited on 6/26/17 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:58 pm to BHMKyle
State has accepted their role, they do well with it from a marketing aspect. Very smart
This post was edited on 6/27/17 at 9:51 am
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:59 pm to BHMKyle
To have a fan of an SEC East team lecture about cupcakes is ironic. Mullen
Is 1-1 against your school by the way.
Is 1-1 against your school by the way.
This post was edited on 6/26/17 at 5:02 pm
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:59 pm to Quicksilver
quote:We made Auburn quit in 14.
Mullen's best wins are either over a 9-4 Ole Miss team in 2009 or an 8-5 Auburn team in 2014.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 4:59 pm to NYCAuburn
Let's not forget MSU's AD apologized to his fanbase after opening the season in 2013 with Oklahoma State.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:01 pm to Diamondawg
They actually won their next 2 games (One was the Treadwell break) but they absolutely tanked after a heartbreaker to A&M.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:01 pm to Quicksilver
quote:
Quicksilver
Dan Mullen is also 5-3 against Ole Miss
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:02 pm to Quicksilver
quote:Did he apologize for cold cocking Ole Miss 55-20 last year?
Let's not forget MSU's AD apologized to his fanbase after opening the season in 2013 with Oklahoma State.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:02 pm to Jeb Busch Lite
Will be 8-0 very shortly
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:03 pm to Diamondawg
Well no, he was the AD at Florida and therefore uninvolved.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:05 pm to MaroonNation
quote:A loss is still a loss when wins are vacated. We have covered this.
Will be 8-0 very shortly
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:07 pm to BHMKyle
Mullen is also 1-1 against Georgia. Keeping playing in that weak arse east.
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:08 pm to BHMKyle
WHo has two thumbs and loves the hell out of penis *does two thumbs up gesture to no one in particular*
The fricken OP
The fricken OP
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:10 pm to Quicksilver
Let's not forget when Bjork called out a fan on twitter and wanted to "meet face to face" with him after the 2014 LSU loss
This post was edited on 6/26/17 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 6/26/17 at 5:10 pm to MaroonNation
quote:
Will be 8-0 very shortly
You mean 5-0, they don't give you those wins sadly
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