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re: LSU a 16 point favorite.
Posted on 9/13/16 at 8:15 am to MullenBoys
Posted on 9/13/16 at 8:15 am to MullenBoys
quote:
the question is, what does Vegas know that I don't.
Just kidding. I'm going to put $100 on State if I can get it at -16.
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Posted on 9/13/16 at 8:16 am to Fan of Football
quote:
Even Vegas has Etling as being 19-21 points better than Harris
i posted that yesterday in the other thread and got blasted.
Posted on 9/13/16 at 8:21 am to Nado Jenkins83
Well how else are we supposed to take that?
Without fournette:
With Harris we are 5 point underdogs, with Etling we are 2 td favorites.
Without fournette:
With Harris we are 5 point underdogs, with Etling we are 2 td favorites.
Posted on 9/13/16 at 8:31 am to MullenBoys
That line is way too high. No one in Vegas has seen LSU play it seems.
Posted on 9/13/16 at 8:36 am to MullenBoys
Seems about right, State did lose to South Alabama or have State fans erased that from their memory already?
Posted on 9/13/16 at 8:48 am to Froman
Yeah seems like free money too me if the spread is 16 lol no chance we win by that much.......
Posted on 9/13/16 at 8:50 am to Barneyrb
quote:
Bookies keep 10% no matter which way you bet. They are going to keep the "juice" no matter what and that is why they want balanced money on both sides. $1 on both teams and they are happy.
They only keep the juice if you lose or push your bet. If bets on both teams win (which they can if there's a gap because the line moved), they don't get any juice and they pay out bets on both sides. How does that help them?
Posted on 9/13/16 at 9:04 am to Nuts4LSU
It's irrelevant if both bets win because in the end if they've achieved even money then they still win. If they were simply trying to guess who wins and by how much then the money coming in would not effect the line.
Here is a pretty good explanation
LINK
Other things do effect the line, of course, but the ultimate goal is to achieve even money
quote:
Here's how it works: When you place a wager in order to win, say, $100 on a point spread bet, you'll be required to bet slightly more than $100. The amount varies depending on the vig that your sportsbook charges. But in most cases, you'll likely be required to place a $110 bet in order to win $100 back. Sportsbooks do this because, assuming they're able to get people to wager equally on both sides of a bet, it allows them to guarantee that they will make money. So when you lose a $110 bet to a sportsbook, you're usually not giving them that entire amount. Rather, they're using $100 of your money to pay off someone else's winning bet and pocketing $10. Doesn't that make you feel a little bit better about losing? Er, maybe?
Here is a pretty good explanation
LINK
Other things do effect the line, of course, but the ultimate goal is to achieve even money
Posted on 9/13/16 at 9:13 am to Nuts4LSU
quote:
That's what I would hope and assume. If so, how does moving the line help the bookies?
LSU opens at -9, most of the money goes on LSU.
Line moves to 16, then most of the money goes on MSU.
Now, there's equal money on both teams, but most of the money on LSU is at -9 and most of the money on MSU is at +16. What happens if LSU wins by 13? Most of the bets on both sides are winners and the bookies lose money. If that's the case, how does moving the line to even the money guarantee the bookies to come out ahead?
Because as money starts coming in on the other side the line will go back down. I would look for it to be back around 9-10 by kickoff but that is only a guess.
Big spread jumps like this mean a huge pile of cash was going one way.
This is also the same reason marque teams with huge fan bases normally cover, the line is set low enough to attract an even amount of bets to the other side.
Posted on 9/13/16 at 9:30 am to TwoDatBait
If I got a dollar every time I heard "LSU has a capable QB now" I would take those large proceeds and put it all on MSU this weekend
Posted on 9/13/16 at 9:47 am to MsState of mind
Have any of you seen MSU play? They are so devoid of talent and riddled with injuries that they have linemen playing TE & CB.
Posted on 9/13/16 at 10:04 am to MsState of mind
quote:
f I got a dollar every time I heard "LSU has a capable QB now" I would take those large proceeds and put it all on MSU this weekend
better worry more about shining up that cowbell. Its gonna get dusty sat night from lack of use
Posted on 9/13/16 at 10:07 am to MullenBoys
quote:
what does Vegas know that I don't.
That Etling is starting. The LF7 is healthy and will play. And finally, that LSU, while not the powerhouse that many expected, is not as bad as you think from watching their first two games.
Posted on 9/13/16 at 10:18 am to rmnldr
I laughed
Posted on 9/13/16 at 10:32 am to msuboss71
Vegas found out Les is breaking out the secret playbook.
Posted on 9/13/16 at 10:50 am to JesusQuintana
quote:
It's irrelevant if both bets win because in the end if they've achieved even money then they still win.
If both bets win, they cannot make money. .
If I have LSU -9 and you have MSU +16 and LSU wins by 13, how does the bookie make any money off of either of us?
quote:
Here's how it works:
I know about the vig and how it works. If I go to the bookie and pay him $110 to bet $100 on LSU -9 and LSU wins by 13, I can collect $210 back from him (the amount I paid plus the $100 I bet). If you go to the same bookie and pay him $110 to bet $100 on MSU +16 and LSU wins by 13, you can collect $210 back from him, too. How does he make money off of either of us?
quote:
ultimate goal is to achieve even money
But that only works if all the money on both sides is bet on the same line. That way, either 1) half of the money bet is lost by the bettors on one side and the bookie uses that money to pay the winners on the other side while pocketing the vig from the losing side, or 2) the bet pushes and he gets the vig from both sides. If the lines on the two sides are different (the LSU money is only giving 9 while the MSU money is getting 16), he has no guarantee that either side will lose and he risks getting no vig and paying out both sides.
This post was edited on 9/13/16 at 10:51 am
Posted on 9/13/16 at 10:56 am to MullenBoys
Vegas doesn't know anything.
The line opened and most bets went to LSU because we lost to USA and well it's a night game at LSU.
Vegas moved the line drastically to ensure an equal number of bets on each side. It's how Vegas ensures they don't lose money
The line opened and most bets went to LSU because we lost to USA and well it's a night game at LSU.
Vegas moved the line drastically to ensure an equal number of bets on each side. It's how Vegas ensures they don't lose money
Posted on 9/13/16 at 10:58 am to cave canem
quote:
marque teams with huge fan bases normally cover, the line is set low enough to attract an even amount of bets to the other side.
This doesn't make sense. It should cause them to cover less often because the line is artificially inflated due to their fans betting on them.
Example:
A marquee team opens at -3. A lot of money is bet on the marquee team, so the line has to move higher, say to -4. Now, that team must win by more to cover because so many people bet on them it drove the line up. If this happens consistently, the team should cover less frequently than other teams because the line is more difficult to cover than it would normally be if people weren't always betting on them.
Posted on 9/13/16 at 10:59 am to Nuts4LSU
What you are missing here is economics of scale and the fact that the line is a "living thing".
Posted on 9/13/16 at 11:01 am to MullenBoys
It was chosen as a night game in Death Valley. Historically, even experienced Mississippi State teams tend to be in awe of Tiger Stadium at its drunkest.
I wouldn't be surprised to see LSU win by 16+, even with the shitty offense. State doesn't have a power running game, and its QB's aren't a terror in the read option game. State needs its receivers to make plays in the short passing game, but LSU has a superior secondary. This is not a good matchup for Mullen.
I wouldn't be surprised to see LSU win by 16+, even with the shitty offense. State doesn't have a power running game, and its QB's aren't a terror in the read option game. State needs its receivers to make plays in the short passing game, but LSU has a superior secondary. This is not a good matchup for Mullen.
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