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LSU is in the SEC Championship as long as Bama wins Saturday
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:58 pm
We all know what happens if LSU wins Friday. However, in the unlikely event that they lose, here is your breakdown. In the event of a 3-way tie, as long as LSU is not blown out Friday, they will be in the SECCG. Even a blowout might not be enough. On November 27th, here are what the BCS will look like:
Computers: LSU will be #1 in all of the computers even with a loss. The computers do not care about margin of victory, so even a blowout will not affect this. Also, although a win would cement Arkansas as the #4 team in the computers, it will not be enough for Arky to pass up either OSU or Bama. That means LSU will have a 1.000 score for this part, Bama will have .9600-.9200, and Arky will have .8800.
Coache's poll/Harris poll: This is where the margin of victory will come into play. First, lets assume it is close, since that is far, far more likely. OSU will not have played OU at this time. Alabama will be easy to slide to #1 on most ballots, but what about people who think the LSU head-to-head win and resume is more impressive? LSU will almost certainly still receive 1st place votes. Further, LSU will almost certainly stay ahead of Stanford and VT on all ballots. So, even if they average being ranked #3 on the ballots, that will give them .9200 for each poll. If Arky averages #2 on ballots, that gives them .9600, and Bama would get 1.000 if they average #1.
Now, the final BCS rankings, given a close game, will look something like this. I have put the score ranges next to each team. I bet my posting priveleges for 3 months on the scores being between these ranges:
1. Bama, (.9866 - .9600)
2. LSU, (.9733 - .9466)
3. Arky, (.9466 - .9200)
***Now, with a close game, the polls would probably all have LSU, Bama, and Arky in a mess. All 3 would likely receive some 1st place votes, and although it would probably shape up with Bama with the most points, Arky second, and LSU third, the relative positions do not matter. The BCS is concerned with the point totals as a percentage of points possible. That is why the uncertainty amongst pollsters will be so important.
Now, lets assume a blowout. LSU would still find themselves no worse than 3rd on most ballots, and for the few people that drop them lower than that, there will be others that put them higher, so it is safe to say that LSU can expect no worse than a .9200 for each poll. Combined with the computer score, that puts LSU with a .9466 BCS score. As for Arkansas, at best, they can hope to move to 3rd in a few computers. I think they will be a solid #4 in all of the computers, but I will give them the benefit of the doubt. If they split #3 and #4, that gives them a .9000 computer score. That means they need to get 1.94 points in the two human polls, or .9700 a peice, or an average of a 1.75 ranking on each ballot. If we assume Arkansas will be no worse than #2 on ballots, that means for every 3 people that rank Arkansas second, 1 needs to rank Arkansas #1. That equates to 15 #1 votes in the Coaches' poll and 29 #1 votes in the Harris poll. If Arkansas finds themselves at #3 on any ballots, they will need even more #1 votes. And even that is only enough to tie LSU's BCS score. They need better than that to pass LSU.
In conclusion, there is a good chance Bama would pass LSU, but there is no chance that Arky passes LSU or Bama, and thus LSU wins the tie breaker and heads to Atlanta.
What do Arky and Bama fans need to happen?
Bama fans, beat Auburn and you are in. LSU beating Arkansas would seal the deal. No chance at the SEC Championship, but almost guaranteed to be in the NC.
Arky fans, beat LSU and Auburn beats Bama, and you are in the SECCG. Win that and you will play OSU if they beat OU or you will rematch with LSU if OSU loses.
-or-
beat LSU and if Bama beats Auburn, you need to pull for UGA over LSU and OU over OSU on December 3rd. If both of those two teams pull the upset, it will be Arky vs. Bama in a rematch for the National Championship. Decent chance at the SEC Championship, but you absolutely need an Auburn upset to get there. Without it, no chance at the SEC Championship. Decent chance at the NC, but you need UGA to upset LSU and OU to upset OSU.
LSU fans, beat Arky, and you are in no matter what happens in Atlanta. Lose to Arky, and you will need Bama to beat Auburn to play in Atlanta. Lose to Arky and Auburn upsets Bama, and you may sneak into the NC. If OU upsets OSU, you are guaranteed to be there.
Computers: LSU will be #1 in all of the computers even with a loss. The computers do not care about margin of victory, so even a blowout will not affect this. Also, although a win would cement Arkansas as the #4 team in the computers, it will not be enough for Arky to pass up either OSU or Bama. That means LSU will have a 1.000 score for this part, Bama will have .9600-.9200, and Arky will have .8800.
Coache's poll/Harris poll: This is where the margin of victory will come into play. First, lets assume it is close, since that is far, far more likely. OSU will not have played OU at this time. Alabama will be easy to slide to #1 on most ballots, but what about people who think the LSU head-to-head win and resume is more impressive? LSU will almost certainly still receive 1st place votes. Further, LSU will almost certainly stay ahead of Stanford and VT on all ballots. So, even if they average being ranked #3 on the ballots, that will give them .9200 for each poll. If Arky averages #2 on ballots, that gives them .9600, and Bama would get 1.000 if they average #1.
Now, the final BCS rankings, given a close game, will look something like this. I have put the score ranges next to each team. I bet my posting priveleges for 3 months on the scores being between these ranges:
1. Bama, (.9866 - .9600)
2. LSU, (.9733 - .9466)
3. Arky, (.9466 - .9200)
***Now, with a close game, the polls would probably all have LSU, Bama, and Arky in a mess. All 3 would likely receive some 1st place votes, and although it would probably shape up with Bama with the most points, Arky second, and LSU third, the relative positions do not matter. The BCS is concerned with the point totals as a percentage of points possible. That is why the uncertainty amongst pollsters will be so important.
Now, lets assume a blowout. LSU would still find themselves no worse than 3rd on most ballots, and for the few people that drop them lower than that, there will be others that put them higher, so it is safe to say that LSU can expect no worse than a .9200 for each poll. Combined with the computer score, that puts LSU with a .9466 BCS score. As for Arkansas, at best, they can hope to move to 3rd in a few computers. I think they will be a solid #4 in all of the computers, but I will give them the benefit of the doubt. If they split #3 and #4, that gives them a .9000 computer score. That means they need to get 1.94 points in the two human polls, or .9700 a peice, or an average of a 1.75 ranking on each ballot. If we assume Arkansas will be no worse than #2 on ballots, that means for every 3 people that rank Arkansas second, 1 needs to rank Arkansas #1. That equates to 15 #1 votes in the Coaches' poll and 29 #1 votes in the Harris poll. If Arkansas finds themselves at #3 on any ballots, they will need even more #1 votes. And even that is only enough to tie LSU's BCS score. They need better than that to pass LSU.
In conclusion, there is a good chance Bama would pass LSU, but there is no chance that Arky passes LSU or Bama, and thus LSU wins the tie breaker and heads to Atlanta.
What do Arky and Bama fans need to happen?
Bama fans, beat Auburn and you are in. LSU beating Arkansas would seal the deal. No chance at the SEC Championship, but almost guaranteed to be in the NC.
Arky fans, beat LSU and Auburn beats Bama, and you are in the SECCG. Win that and you will play OSU if they beat OU or you will rematch with LSU if OSU loses.
-or-
beat LSU and if Bama beats Auburn, you need to pull for UGA over LSU and OU over OSU on December 3rd. If both of those two teams pull the upset, it will be Arky vs. Bama in a rematch for the National Championship. Decent chance at the SEC Championship, but you absolutely need an Auburn upset to get there. Without it, no chance at the SEC Championship. Decent chance at the NC, but you need UGA to upset LSU and OU to upset OSU.
LSU fans, beat Arky, and you are in no matter what happens in Atlanta. Lose to Arky, and you will need Bama to beat Auburn to play in Atlanta. Lose to Arky and Auburn upsets Bama, and you may sneak into the NC. If OU upsets OSU, you are guaranteed to be there.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:10 pm to slackster
Alabama is your 2011 national champions.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:11 pm to slackster
The people who know how the bcs formula works know this, some fan bases refuse to believe it.
Arkansas fans believe with a win over LSU they will get every #1 vote even over Bama.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:12 pm to slackster
I have been thinking the same thing. The BCS is likely to be 1 - Bama, 2- LSU, and 3- Arkansas no matter the outcome of LSU/Arkansas. So, you would have the number 1 team in the BCS not go to its conference championship game.
I sure as hell wasn't going to spend that kind of time writing about it, but nice job.
I sure as hell wasn't going to spend that kind of time writing about it, but nice job.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:13 pm to I Love Bama
While the computers might not take margin of victory into account, they will be hurt for losing to a lower ranked team while Alabama lost to a higher ranked team.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:22 pm to BamaDude06
The computers will reassess the teams every week. They are not static rankings. Bama will get points for beating what will be a highly ranked Arkansas team, but the loss to LSU will now hurt more. Further, LSU will be rewarded more for beating Bama if they finish at 11-1.
In the eyes of the computers, LSU will have the worst loss, followed by Arkansas and then Bama. Inversely, Arkansas will have the best win, followed by LSU, then Bama. That all comes out in the wash. LSU has the considerable advantage when it comes to OOC games, highlighted by the Oregon win, which will end up being the next best win among the teams and will keep LSU with the edge.
In the eyes of the computers, LSU will have the worst loss, followed by Arkansas and then Bama. Inversely, Arkansas will have the best win, followed by LSU, then Bama. That all comes out in the wash. LSU has the considerable advantage when it comes to OOC games, highlighted by the Oregon win, which will end up being the next best win among the teams and will keep LSU with the edge.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:22 pm to BamaDude06
And how far did Bama Fall in the polls? So why should LSU fall very far if they were to loss to a #3 ranked team?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:22 pm to BamaDude06
The advantage of playing the tough schedule just might pay off.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:27 pm to elposter
quote:
I have been thinking the same thing. The BCS is likely to be 1 - Bama, 2- LSU, and 3- Arkansas no matter the outcome of LSU/Arkansas. So, you would have the number 1 team in the BCS not go to its conference championship game.
I don't think you meant to say that. Obviously, if LSU beats Arkansas, it will be
#1 LSU
#2 Alabama
#3 Oklahoma St.
IF Oklahoma St. beats OU and LSU beats Georgia, it will be
#1 LSU
#2 Oklahoma St.
In the BCS National Championship game because of the computer scores. That's what I'm hearing, anyway.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:32 pm to AlaTiger
And if LSU goes to the BCS NCG at 13-0 and lose they are still the national champs. If you cannot rationize this then shut the frick up. Since it is impossible to, shut the frick up. LSU is a must win friday. Don't believe it and nobody cares. You are all delusional if you think LSU stays ahead of Arkansas with a loss. God help you and your family.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:35 pm to pawprints
Depends.
Human polls both dropped Bama by 2. Computers by 1. Was enough to push only to 3rd merely because human polls were split on OK St and Stanford being 2nd/3rd and the computers absolutely HATED Stanford that week.
The human polls won't be kind to LSU. The computer polls are going to be a bit of a mystery depending on other games as well. It will come down to how unanimous of votes there are between the human polls in the top 5, and how it coincides with the corresponding computer rankings for each of those teams.
Human polls both dropped Bama by 2. Computers by 1. Was enough to push only to 3rd merely because human polls were split on OK St and Stanford being 2nd/3rd and the computers absolutely HATED Stanford that week.
The human polls won't be kind to LSU. The computer polls are going to be a bit of a mystery depending on other games as well. It will come down to how unanimous of votes there are between the human polls in the top 5, and how it coincides with the corresponding computer rankings for each of those teams.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:39 pm to AlaTiger
If LSU loses to Arkansas, and Bama wins, they will most likely be #1 in the BCS for November 27th. LSU has a chance to squeeze into #1 as well, but not likely. So yes, the #1 team in the BCS will not be in its conference championship. However, if LSU beats UGA, they will take back the #1 spot in the human polls, and with it, the #1 spot in the BCS. Further, there is a chance Alabama could get backed down to 4th in the computer rankings on December 4th. OSU would cement #2 and Arkansas would get additional leverage since the win over LSU would look even more impressive. If that happens, and Bama falls to #4 in the computers, they are really going to be cutting it close with OSU.
Put it this way, no sane Alabama fan should pull for Arkansas on Friday. Alabama needs to be the consensus #2 or #3 team in the computers to get in, and Arkansas and OSU are their biggest threats.
Put it this way, no sane Alabama fan should pull for Arkansas on Friday. Alabama needs to be the consensus #2 or #3 team in the computers to get in, and Arkansas and OSU are their biggest threats.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:40 pm to AlaTiger
quote:
IF Oklahoma St. beats OU and LSU beats Georgia, it will be
#1 LSU
#2 Oklahoma St.
In the BCS National Championship game because of the computer scores. That's what I'm hearing, anyway.
Uhhh... wha? You should either cut your ears off or stop listening to the people you're talking to then. If Bama and LSU both win - both are playing for the BCS NC.
Not sure if you're trolling or just retarded.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:41 pm to ShreveportHog94
quote:
ShreveportHog94
just stop. you're embarrassing yourself
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:41 pm to AlaTiger
quote:
IF Oklahoma St. beats OU and LSU beats Georgia, it will be
#1 LSU
#2 Oklahoma St.
In the BCS National Championship game because of the computer scores. That's what I'm hearing, anyway.
You just are hearing what you want to hear then. OSU is going to have to get a significant amount of second place votes to catch Bama and they have a lot of ground to catch up to do so (they are 6th right now). If Arkansas, Va Tech, and Clemson lose then OSU MIGHT have an outside shot.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:43 pm to slackster
this conclusion has already been reached by anyone who knows the system and had been paying attention
I don't want LSU to lose, I'd rather they took care of business and played like a team that deserves to win the SEC and a NCG... but for the better or worse LSU could back into a SEC CCG or even BCS NCG at this point
I don't want LSU to lose, I'd rather they took care of business and played like a team that deserves to win the SEC and a NCG... but for the better or worse LSU could back into a SEC CCG or even BCS NCG at this point
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:43 pm to slackster
quote:
LSU is in the SEC Championship as long as Bama wins Saturday
Fine by me. Because if Alabama wins Saturday we'll be playing for the more important championship. The SEC would be nice, but I'll take playing in the BCSNC however it happens.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:43 pm to elposter
if the human polls have OSU at #3 if they beat OU than bama fans should start getting nervous
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:44 pm to slackster
You know that you have almost no credibility regarding the BCS anymore, right?
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