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re: LSU is in the SEC Championship as long as Bama wins Saturday
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:18 pm to OneMoreTime
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:18 pm to OneMoreTime
quote:
All they need is some voters to vote against a rematch.
They need 25% of voters. I don't know why people think it is that far fetched to believe 1 out of very 4 voters might vote for the Big12 champion over a team that already lost to LSU and didn't win their division.
I don't know what will happen if OSU beats OU, but I sure as hell wouldn't be the house that Ok State can't somehow swing 25% of voters.
2
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:25 pm to lsumatt
A lot of voters are going to look for any reason at all to not have a rematch between LSU - Bama. If OSU beat OU most voters in the Big 12 states start putting them ahead of Bama. Bama also needs to win big against a very Auburn team - a close game will also cost them votes.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:35 pm to lsumatt
quote:
I don't know what will happen if OSU beats OU, but I sure as hell wouldn't be the house that Ok State can't somehow swing 25% of voters.
This isn't why most people think it will be so difficult at all!
If you read the thread you'll see the reason brought up again and again.
The main thing people are saying isn't that Ok St can't get 1 in 4 people to vote them #2. Yes. That does seem possible.
The point is that Ok St also has to convince the other 75% of the voters which currently have them below Stanford and Virginia Tech and others (Houston, Boise, Arkansas) to almost ALL at least vote them #3 as well.
These are all the same voters that just sent both them and Oklahoma plummeting more than most expected so you can kind of understand a little bit why some "experts" see it as a stretch that only beating Oklahoma will help them jump right back up to the unanimous #3 on all their "doubters" ballots.
Do the math. If only 1 in 10 voters put them behind Stanford and 1 in 20 voters behind Stanford and VT (or Houston) then they all of the sudden have to have around 50% of the voters put them #2. That's their hurdle and not the "mere" 25% so many people keep mentioning on here.
Again, it's not impossible but it would be unprecedented.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 6:49 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:42 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
Alabama is your 2011 national champions.
c'mon man, you can't claim a national championship unless you actually win it. can you? i mean, no one claims nc's w/o actually winning them on the field. do they? bama wouldn't do that. would they? i guess since y'all do have a history of claiming unearned nc's, y'all probably would.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:42 pm to I Love Bama
ilovebama 
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:43 pm to slackster
:csb:
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:46 pm to wm72
quote:
The point is that Ok St also has to convince the other 75% of the voters which currently have them below Stanford and Virginia Tech and others (Houston, Boise, Arkansas) to almost ALL at least vote them #3 as well.
They won't have trouble getting above Stanford imo. When voters re-evaluate, they'll put OSU above a meh Stanford team that didn't win their division.
It is tech they need to worry about it. But I think Va Tech has a good chance of losing, which will make it easier for OSU.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:53 pm to lsumatt
All this will not matter when Auburn beats Alabama and LSU loses to Arkie and Arkie loses to UGA and OSU loses to OU and Clemson beats Virginia Tech and Samford loses to whoever they have left.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 6:59 pm to slackster
So, now that it has been laid out in 7,565,543,254 ways for Arkansas fans, can everyone just agree that the SEC West order in the BCS will be:
(LSU win)
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Arkansas
OR
(Arky win)
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
(LSU win)
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Arkansas
OR
(Arky win)
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 7:01 pm
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:03 pm to OneMoreTime
Amazing that people are still trying to convince others and themselves that OkSt can be considered deserving fresh off a loss to Iowa State, whereas Arky and Bama are the only teams with their sole loss to a higher ranked opponent.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:10 pm to slackster
Not sure if everyone has seen this video yet or not, but Brad Edwards finally concedes that LSU is going to win the tiebreaker if Arkansas beats LSU...
BCS Minute: What if Arkansas defeats LSU?
BCS Minute: What if Arkansas defeats LSU?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:16 pm to lsumatt
quote:
They won't have trouble getting above Stanford imo. When voters re-evaluate, they'll put OSU above a meh Stanford team that didn't win their division.
It is tech they need to worry about it. But I think Va Tech has a good chance of losing, which will make it easier for OSU.
Of course, we don't know how humans will react (and probably won't get the chance to see as someone else will lose and Oklahoma St is more likely to do that than any other team in this scenario).
However, I think you're assuming ALMOST ALL voters will put Oklahoma St over Stanford is more wishful thinking than anything else.
It's hard for me to see any support between Oklahoma St, Stanford and Virginia Tech to not being kind of split up. I think Oklahoma St probably gets a majority for reasons you point out but they need unanimous.
However, is it really so improbable that only 1 in 10 voters think Stanford's Oregon loss is much better than losing to Iowa St and that beating a soaring USC is better than beating Oklahoma and keep them #3? Again, they only have to keep Stanford there not move them up. Especially west coast voters that tend to not see the PAC 12 as quite so "meh" . . .
Oklahoma St would need some unprecedented pollster gymnastics if either Virginia Tech OR Stanford win out.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 7:17 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Not sure if everyone has seen this video yet or not, but Brad Edwards finally concedes that LSU is going to win the tiebreaker if Arkansas beats LSU..
Edwards made the comment that he couldn't see Bama falling one spot after beating Auburn. Arkansas fell one spot after beating 10th ranked USC by 16 points.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:14 am to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
quote:
10-1 Ok State would likely be ahead of LSU 11-1 LSU at least in Colley, maybe more.
I don't see it on November 27th. How are you figuring that? Granted, if Bedlam was on the 26th and OSU won, I think they could/would pass up LSU, but not without playing that game.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:15 am to HighBrowCat
quote:
Excellent post slackster! Thanks for the time you put into it and for all the alternate scenarios.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:18 am to allin2010
quote:
All this will not matter when Auburn beats Alabama and LSU loses to Arkie and Arkie loses to UGA and OSU loses to OU and Clemson beats Virginia Tech and Samford loses to whoever they have left.
You would have LSU versus Houston in the National Championship in your scenario.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:21 am to Bwbama
quote:
Amazing that people are still trying to convince others and themselves that OkSt can be considered deserving fresh off a loss to Iowa State, whereas Arky and Bama are the only teams with their sole loss to a higher ranked opponent.
OSU can thank the scheduling gods that the Iowa State game happened when it did.
#1) They loss when lots of other teams did. That helped them break what would have been an absolute free-fall in the polls.
#2) They get to play the Bedlam game on conference championship week, fitting since it will determine the conference champion. Also, Bama will be sitting at home that week. You are not going to pick up votes when you don't play.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:28 am to bigpapamac
quote:
Computers aren't like the human polls where there are percentages taken. In the computers, if you're #2 you're #2 and if you're #3 you're #3. Oklahoma St is already #2, they can't pull away more from Alabama by becoming a "stronger" #2 if they beat OU.
False.
Right now, OSu is 2/2/2/3, and Bama is 3/3/3/2. If that last one is switched, they become a stronger 2 then they currently are.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:32 am to lsumatt
quote:
10-1 Ok State would likely be ahead of LSU 11-1 LSU at least in Colley, maybe more.
+1. I couldn't remember the computer, but OSU is only BARELY behind LSU. They would definitely jump LSU in that computer with a loss to Arky. If they go ahead in one more, then they would have a 1 included in their four keeper scores.
And that would only hurt Bama. It's looking more and more like Bama fans need to buy some P&G for the game on Friday.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 11:48 am to secftw
quote:
The human polls won't be kind to LSU
How unkind could they be? Even if they all ranked us #3 and Arkie #2, we'd still be ahead in the BCS. The only way anyone could rank us lower than #3 would be to just get ridiculous about it to push an agenda, which they generally don't do. They do push an agenda sometimes, but they generally don't get ridiculous about it.
quote:
The computer polls are going to be a bit of a mystery depending on other games as well
Only a small amount of mystery there. The other games' impact will be only slight, and even then only if they go wildly against what we need.
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