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Bama’s issues didn’t start with DeBoer
Posted on 1/2/26 at 10:40 am
Posted on 1/2/26 at 10:40 am
We’re five years removed from the last time Bama played for a national title… Saban was coach for 3 of the last 5 seasons.
Here is Bama’s average point margin per game against Power 4/5 Opponents going back to 2007, ranked best to worst:
+29.1 Bama 2020
+27.1 Bama 2011
+24.7 Bama 2012
+24.0 Bama 2018
+23.6 Bama 2016
+22.5 Bama 2017
+21.5 Bama 2019
+19.9 Bama 2013
+17.0 Bama 2010
+15.7 Bama 2015
+15.3 Bama 2022 (Saban’s 2nd to last season)
+15.3 Bama 2009
+14.3 Bama 2008
+13.1 Bama 2014
+13.1 Bama 2021 (Saban’s 3rd to last season)
+8.3 Bama 2023 (Saban’ last season)
+7.9 Bama 2024 (DeBoar Year 1)
+2.1 Bama 2007 (Saban Year 1)
+2.0 Bama 2025 (DeBoar Year 2)
Bama beat Power Conference Opponents by 14+ points or more on average beginning with Saban’s second season in 2008 all the way through 2020.
Saban fell short of that mark in 2021… barely got above it in 2022… and then fell well short of it in 2023 before he cut and ran.
Sure, DeBoar has probably faired worse, but he inherited a program that had peaked three years earlier and already begun to fall off.
Being +2 per game in point differential against 13 power conference opponents is not bad. DeBoar needs several more years to get it going.
Here is Bama’s average point margin per game against Power 4/5 Opponents going back to 2007, ranked best to worst:
+29.1 Bama 2020
+27.1 Bama 2011
+24.7 Bama 2012
+24.0 Bama 2018
+23.6 Bama 2016
+22.5 Bama 2017
+21.5 Bama 2019
+19.9 Bama 2013
+17.0 Bama 2010
+15.7 Bama 2015
+15.3 Bama 2022 (Saban’s 2nd to last season)
+15.3 Bama 2009
+14.3 Bama 2008
+13.1 Bama 2014
+13.1 Bama 2021 (Saban’s 3rd to last season)
+8.3 Bama 2023 (Saban’ last season)
+7.9 Bama 2024 (DeBoar Year 1)
+2.1 Bama 2007 (Saban Year 1)
+2.0 Bama 2025 (DeBoar Year 2)
Bama beat Power Conference Opponents by 14+ points or more on average beginning with Saban’s second season in 2008 all the way through 2020.
Saban fell short of that mark in 2021… barely got above it in 2022… and then fell well short of it in 2023 before he cut and ran.
Sure, DeBoar has probably faired worse, but he inherited a program that had peaked three years earlier and already begun to fall off.
Being +2 per game in point differential against 13 power conference opponents is not bad. DeBoar needs several more years to get it going.
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Posted on 1/2/26 at 10:48 am to AUTiger789
It all started with Kirby leaving and poaching a lot of the defensive talent that alabama used to get. They had a monopoly and then suddenly had to split it with Kirby.
Clemson spanking them in the 2018 Natty was the beginning of the decline. It then became a slow gradually decline with other warning signs like missing the playoffs in 2019 and losing to UGA in the 2021 Natty. That 2021 loss to UGA in the natty was the tipping point and they never really had the same aura since. The decline began to pickup speed and they missed the playoffs again in 2022. Then in 2023 they got blown out by Texas at home and Michigan beat them in the Rose Bowl.
Saban retiring accelerated the decline and now it has picked up a more rapid pace with back to back 4 loss seasons and the culmination of it all with a humiliating 28-7 loss to UGA in the SEC Championship and then the demoralizing 38-3 loss to Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
Things are balancing out now and the decline has reached the point that whatever "aura" was left after the 2021 loss to UGA in the Natty is now gone.
Clemson spanking them in the 2018 Natty was the beginning of the decline. It then became a slow gradually decline with other warning signs like missing the playoffs in 2019 and losing to UGA in the 2021 Natty. That 2021 loss to UGA in the natty was the tipping point and they never really had the same aura since. The decline began to pickup speed and they missed the playoffs again in 2022. Then in 2023 they got blown out by Texas at home and Michigan beat them in the Rose Bowl.
Saban retiring accelerated the decline and now it has picked up a more rapid pace with back to back 4 loss seasons and the culmination of it all with a humiliating 28-7 loss to UGA in the SEC Championship and then the demoralizing 38-3 loss to Indiana in the Rose Bowl.
Things are balancing out now and the decline has reached the point that whatever "aura" was left after the 2021 loss to UGA in the Natty is now gone.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 10:59 am to Stidham8
I’ll add that it’s also not even possible to rebuild to that level they were at prior to Kirby leaving after 2015. The transfer portal and NIL have made CFB a different world.
You can’t hoard talent for 4-5 years by paying the most for recruits like Saban did.
alabama will wonder through the wilderness for the next few decades firing and hiring coaches trying to chase a reality that doesn’t exist anymore. One day they will accept that they are a “has been” once enough time passes.
You can’t hoard talent for 4-5 years by paying the most for recruits like Saban did.
alabama will wonder through the wilderness for the next few decades firing and hiring coaches trying to chase a reality that doesn’t exist anymore. One day they will accept that they are a “has been” once enough time passes.
This post was edited on 1/2/26 at 11:00 am
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:06 am to AUTiger789
Alabama's issues started when Saban hired David Ballou and Matt Rhea as the strength and conditioning coordinators.
Rhea left after a season or two to join the New Orleans Saints and Ballou stayed on at Alabama.
Alabama went science based instead of old school and it has backfired bigly.
Rhea left after a season or two to join the New Orleans Saints and Ballou stayed on at Alabama.
Alabama went science based instead of old school and it has backfired bigly.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:07 am to Stidham8
quote:
One day they will accept that they are a “has been” once enough time passes.
When will Auburn accept their status as a "never was"?
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:14 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Bama’s issues didn’t start with DeBoer
Looks like you guys are finally starting to get it.
Parity has affected every single program (esp. in the SEC).
You could do the same with just about any team actually.
Even Georgia has not looked as good as they have though they are still probably the best in the conference right now.
Bama, LSU, Florida, Arkansas, USCe, Kentucky and Auburn have even down-trended.
Only a small amount of teams have up-trended: A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee <- (these two had a lot of celing)
Parity (NIL and TP) have affected everyone.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:15 am to TideSaint
quote:
Alabama went science based instead of old school and it has backfired bigly.
In addition to Pruitt, they need to back the adderol guy.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:17 am to Stidham8
quote:
Clemson spanking them in the 2018 Natty was the beginning of the decline.
Agree here mostly except that Bama declined started beginning of the 2018 season really.
Saban was just so good, he won 2020 out of habit (along with a ridiculously talented offense).
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:19 am to Stidham8
If a decline includes a 10-win season and in the playoffs is what AU facing a complete disaster?
AU fans have to be some of the saddest fans in all of CFB.
AU fans have to be some of the saddest fans in all of CFB.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:20 am to TideWarrior
quote:
AU fans have to be some of the saddest fans in all of CFB.
It stops being sad when you get used to it.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:20 am to skrayper
quote:
When will Auburn accept their status as a "never was"?
Any team that’s won an SEC championship, let alone a national championship, in recent memory is not a “never was”.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:21 am to theballguy
The loss of smart can’t be overlooked. He left a defensive roster that was beyond sick. Pruitt reaped the rewards but he didn’t leave the same level of talent. Alabama had to move to outscoring opponents & did for most part.
Alabama isn’t near physical enough now.
Alabama isn’t near physical enough now.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:24 am to Stidham8
quote:
alabama will wonder through the wilderness for the next few decades firing and hiring coaches trying to chase a reality that doesn’t exist anymore. One day they will accept that they are a “has been” once enough time passes.
Retards gonna retard, I guess.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:32 am to TideSaint
quote:
Alabama went science based instead of old school and it has backfired bigly.
NO NO NO
Saban told Cole Cubelic that it was the 15 year Learfield deal that changed the dynamics at Alabama.
Saban was opposed to it and it signaled to him that he was not taken seriously by the Alabama administration who cut the deal.
(Some think that there was kickback money involved)
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:34 am to Chip82
Scott Cochran's departure in 2019 was the true turning point.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 11:43 am to Stidham8
quote:
It all started with Kirby leaving and poaching a lot of the defensive talent that alabama used to get
Pruitt was better than Kirby, and Alabama hasn't dropped in defensive talent.
What Alabama is lacking that they use to have is development and veteran players who have been developed.
This post was edited on 1/2/26 at 11:44 am
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