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Closing out OOC play
Posted on 12/30/25 at 10:39 am
Posted on 12/30/25 at 10:39 am
Just two games remain… barring Tennessee losing to #362 SC State or Missouri losing to #309 Albany, the SEC is going to escape non-conference play without any truly horrific losses.
As a league, we should finish 94-0 against opponents with a NET of #200 or worse. And we’ll finish 131-1 against opponents outside the NET Top 100. Unfortunately Ole Miss’ 1-point loss to #131 Utah is the only blemish.
This should solidify either 9 or 10 SEC teams in the Tournament this year. We’ll be rated the overall best league in America.
With that said, we were collectively bad against solid competition… and that will unfortunately make it nearly impossible for an SEC team to land a 1-seed and probably even a 2-seed in the Tourney.
Against the NET Top 25, the SEC is a collective 5-29 with four teams (Vandy, Georgia, Texas A&M, and South Carolina) having not even played a Top 25 opponent yet.
Against the NET Top 50, the SEC is a collective 17-38. Seven of our 16 teams lack a win against a Top 50 opponent (Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Missouri, Miss State, and South Carolina).
Against the NET Top 100, the SEC is a collective 27-49. Five of our 16 teams lack a win against a Top 100 opponent (Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Missouri, Miss State, and South Carolina).
Even if you take out the games played against the Top 50, we were collectively abysmal against opponents ranked 51-100…. a combined record of 10-11 against these teams. That’s bad. Real bad.
I think we’re about to witness a very competitive couple of months of league play. There are no truly abysmal teams. There are also no elite teams. We’ve got 16 teams ranging from good to just okay and maybe one or two that are slightly bad.
My prediction for March:
Florida- 3-seed (SEC champs)
Alabama- 3-seed
Vanderbilt- 4-seed
Tennessee- 4-seed
Kentucky- 6-seed
Auburn- 7-seed
Arkansas- 8-seed
LSU- 9-seed
Texas- 11-seed in Dayton
Oklahoma and Georgia both in the First 4 Out.
As a league, we should finish 94-0 against opponents with a NET of #200 or worse. And we’ll finish 131-1 against opponents outside the NET Top 100. Unfortunately Ole Miss’ 1-point loss to #131 Utah is the only blemish.
This should solidify either 9 or 10 SEC teams in the Tournament this year. We’ll be rated the overall best league in America.
With that said, we were collectively bad against solid competition… and that will unfortunately make it nearly impossible for an SEC team to land a 1-seed and probably even a 2-seed in the Tourney.
Against the NET Top 25, the SEC is a collective 5-29 with four teams (Vandy, Georgia, Texas A&M, and South Carolina) having not even played a Top 25 opponent yet.
Against the NET Top 50, the SEC is a collective 17-38. Seven of our 16 teams lack a win against a Top 50 opponent (Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Missouri, Miss State, and South Carolina).
Against the NET Top 100, the SEC is a collective 27-49. Five of our 16 teams lack a win against a Top 100 opponent (Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Missouri, Miss State, and South Carolina).
Even if you take out the games played against the Top 50, we were collectively abysmal against opponents ranked 51-100…. a combined record of 10-11 against these teams. That’s bad. Real bad.
I think we’re about to witness a very competitive couple of months of league play. There are no truly abysmal teams. There are also no elite teams. We’ve got 16 teams ranging from good to just okay and maybe one or two that are slightly bad.
My prediction for March:
Florida- 3-seed (SEC champs)
Alabama- 3-seed
Vanderbilt- 4-seed
Tennessee- 4-seed
Kentucky- 6-seed
Auburn- 7-seed
Arkansas- 8-seed
LSU- 9-seed
Texas- 11-seed in Dayton
Oklahoma and Georgia both in the First 4 Out.
12
Posted on 12/30/25 at 10:41 am to AUTiger789
noted $#ithead
This post was edited on 12/30/25 at 10:42 am
Posted on 12/30/25 at 10:50 am to Dawgs2122
quote:
noted $#ithead
Cool. I think Georgia is a decent team… but that piss poor OOC schedule is going to prove costly IMO. One game played against the Top 94 in non-conference play is typically punished by the committee if it’s close.
Georgia will need to get to 22 regular season wins to feel safe, which will require 10-8 in league play. Doable. But it will probably come down to the very end and possibly even to Nashville.
If the last SEC spot comes down to Texas, Oklahoma, and Georgia, Texas will be able to point to a solid OOC win over NC State in Maui and the fact that they stepped out and played Duke, Virginia, and UConn. Georgia will have no such ammo on their resume.
This post was edited on 12/30/25 at 10:50 am
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:01 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Florida- 3-seed (SEC champs)
Alabama- 3-seed
If Alabama can stay healthy (especially Wrightsell), I could see them winning the SEC and playing up to a 2-seed, but I agree that the current trajectory is a 3-seed.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:06 am to AUTiger789
Good analysis. I do think you are underestimating Arkansas. I think they are just as good as Tennessee.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:07 am to skrayper
Bama is playing well.
Florida is probably getting too much benefit of the doubt by me and everyone else for that matter. Their resume is very pedestrian at the moment.
However, the reason I think they are SEC champs is their schedule.
They play Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas all just once and they get all of those games in Gainesville. That’s an incredible advantage.
Florida is probably getting too much benefit of the doubt by me and everyone else for that matter. Their resume is very pedestrian at the moment.
However, the reason I think they are SEC champs is their schedule.
They play Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas all just once and they get all of those games in Gainesville. That’s an incredible advantage.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:13 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Florida is probably getting too much benefit of the doubt by me and everyone else for that matter. Their resume is very pedestrian at the moment.
Within a possession and had chances to win against 3 of the top 10 teams, all on the road and in virtually away game atmospheres. Very pedestrian. Yup. TCU was bad though, but even last year's team lost to Georgia, which was about the same as TCU this year.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:23 am to SEC Doctor
quote:
I do think you are underestimating Arkansas.
Arkansas looks good. Since Auburn plays them a week from Saturday, I spent some time looking at their resume last night…. Auburn and Arky have three common OOC opponents:
Houston: Auburn lost by 1; Arkansas lost by 9.
Jackson State: Auburn won by 56; Arkansas won by 54.
Queens: Auburn won by 41; Arkansas won by 28.
Very similar performances yet Auburn performed slightly better each and every time against common opponents.
Arkansas beat Louisville by 9 at home. Auburn beat NC State by 11 at home.
Arkansas beat Texas Tech by 9 on a neutral court. Auburn beat St John’s by 12 on a neutral court.
Both Auburn and Arkansas are winless against the Top 12 teams in the NET…. The only difference is Auburn played 3 of these elite opponents (Michigan, Arizona, and Purdue) while Arkansas played just 2 (Duke and Michigan State). Arkansas was able to keep their games closer than Auburn, but the caliber of competition was also more difficult in Auburn’s opponents.
All in all, I think Auburn and Arkansas have very similar resumes. I think Auburn’s metrics are being pulled down a bit due to some games that got away from us… Arizona in Tucson, Purdue in Indy, and Michigan who’s been steamrolling everyone as of late. But when you look at outcomes, there’s very little difference. I think Arkansas’ win over Louisville is a bit inflated because I think the Card’s are not one of the 15 best teams as their current NET suggests. Louisville is benefitting from beating Kentucky early in the season when UK looked like garbage. Put that aside and Louisville has one additional win against the Top 94 in the NET. I’m not sure why Louisville’s NET is so high.
IMO both Auburn and Arkansas look like 5-9 seeds IMO. Could end up being anywhere in that range.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:25 am to AUTiger789
We are going to struggle against anyone with a formidable front court. I’m hoping as we gel our defense improves. They have been horrific so far, particularly in transition.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:26 am to AUTiger789
Thanks for a really great post, rare to find these days. You put some research into it.
I think somehow OU makes it in. Porter has some real gamers this year. Last year was all about Fears but now he has a more complete team. I’m not high on Moser the coach and think this is a do or die year. He has to not only make it in but more comfy than last year.
We’ll see how it goes but I did enjoy your analysis, thanks for taking the time.
I think somehow OU makes it in. Porter has some real gamers this year. Last year was all about Fears but now he has a more complete team. I’m not high on Moser the coach and think this is a do or die year. He has to not only make it in but more comfy than last year.
We’ll see how it goes but I did enjoy your analysis, thanks for taking the time.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:26 am to ForeverGator
quote:
Within a possession and had chances to win against 3 of the top 10 teams, all on the road and in virtually away game atmospheres. Very pedestrian. Yup. TCU was bad though
So 0-3 against Top 25 teams. One win against a Top 50 opponent. And a loss to a team outside the Top 50.
How is that NOT “pedestrian” at this moment?
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:46 am to AUTiger789
quote:I'd be happy with this. Haven't been impressed so far this season.
Texas- 11-seed in Dayton
Posted on 12/30/25 at 12:42 pm to AUTiger789
Great info. It is nice to read actual interesting post rather than the trolls we normally see
Posted on 12/30/25 at 12:56 pm to AUTiger789
Yeah I think you are 100% right about 1 and 2 seed. Have no guess who will win SEC. Id assume a lot of league losses amongst every team this season
Posted on 12/30/25 at 12:58 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
As a league, we should finish 94-0 against opponents with a NET of #200 or worse.
WHY do we have ~100 games in this area?
Posted on 12/30/25 at 1:00 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
LSU- 9-seed
I refuse to even start thinking about this. I'm fully expecting a collapse in conference play.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 1:17 pm to AUTiger789
Auburn has gotten their arse smoked every time they've played a ranked team except Houston, your average loss versus the three ranked teams you've played is 20 points. Arkansas has beaten 15 and number 16. Have lost to 6,8, and 9, none of those were at home, by an average of 6.6 points. Aubby's record is no where near what Arkansas's 
Posted on 12/30/25 at 1:20 pm to southernboisb
quote:
WHY do we have ~100 games in this area?
Georgia has about 10% of them
Posted on 12/30/25 at 1:39 pm to hawgsalot
quote:
Aubby's record is no where near what Arkansas's
Your record is 10-3 and Auburn’s is 9-4 with the difference being Auburn played an extra elite opponent who just so happens to be #1.
Sorry but the facts show the records are quite similar.
KenPom has Arky at #28 and Auburn at #33. The NET has Arky at #30 and Auburn at #35. Sorry your argument of “not being close” doesn’t stand up to actual facts.
Again, we have 3 common opponents and Auburn performed slightly better against each of those three if you compare them side by side.
We had one Q4 scare on opening night, beating Bethune Cookman by 5. Y’all had one Q4 scare, beating Samford by 4. Y’all had a Q3 scare as well, almost losing to Winthrop.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 1:43 pm to AUTiger789
Substantive, non-trolling post on the Rant?!! Who knew this was possible.
I’d sign Bama up for a 3 seed today. Agree with others that a 2 is possible but so is a 4.
I’d sign Bama up for a 3 seed today. Agree with others that a 2 is possible but so is a 4.
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