Bama by the Numbers - CFP / OU Edition

NOTES:
-To be honest I considered not posting this week because I think the team isnt really performing at the predicted level due to injuries on offense
-According to the computers this is as close a matchup as you could possibly have (12 v 13) which means itll come down to turnovers or special teams, neither of which have favored us as of late

OFFENSE:
-I was shocked to see that at least according to the computers our offense hasnt dropped off since the first OU game (16th going into that game vs 17th now)
-I dont see how thats possible but I will point out that we've gone from having the 15th SOS going into that game to being #1 SOS with the defenses we've played being absolutely rediculous
-Computers think we drop under 7YPA in this one so dont expect a ton of points unless we get midseason Ty and avoid turnovers
-That said we put up 400 yards of total offense last round and that number should've resulted in 28-31 points absent the turnovers and FG woes which gave them points and continually killed our momentum
-They have the #2 adjusted rush defense in the country in YPC, but a healthier version of Bama ran pretty effectively against their 2/3 safety looks last time. Getting Jam and more importantly Dewberry and Brailsford back/closer to effective is critical
-They're going to blitz our asses off. They know it, we know it, everyone knows it. Can we hurt them when they do it? Depends on edge protection and #15. The opportunities were there last time we played and people forget Ty had more than 200 yards passing at halftime last go around. We must complete the looks they give us and get the ball out quickly or this could turn into a defensive massacre
-We have to value and protect the ball as they are one of the best teams I've seen in recent years in punching fumbles and generating game changing strip sacks which Ty has been horrible at feeling and getting the ball out all year. Has to change this week.

DEFENSE:
-Our defense gave them absolutely nothing last time.
-2.6 YPC and outside of one 20 yard run it would've looked much worse. They simply couldn't sustain drives even absent the turnovers we saw against LSU.
-Its possible Mateer is healthier for this game so we have to watch that early and I'm very curious to see if Dijon Lee can go as he was a gamechanger when he subbed in for Domani earlier this season although Domani has been fine as of late IMO

OVERALL
-This was a ten point predicted margin last game for a reason, absent three turnovers on our side of the field including the P6 and a missed FG probably would've been covered easily
-Problem is we arent the same team right now and really have no specific area of competency on offense to build on going into a night roadgame against one of the two best defensive minds in the country
-IMO if we had midseason Ty we put up 28-31 and win easily, if we get the SECCG version Im not sure we get to 13 and probably lose by double digits with multiple turnovers.
-Its going to irritate some people but I dont think its unreasonable to suggest that if we find ourselves at halftime and cant move the ball a change should be made at QB because we cant win with our offense playing the way we have been even with all credit to Ty for toughing it out with his situation .