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The ideal run game in a Grubb/DeBoer Offense = 2023 Washington
Posted on 11/12/25 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 11/12/25 at 4:46 pm
We'll likely never run for 200 a game because that isn't what the run game is to them. The run game is meant to keep the defense honest in a way that makes them play 1st and 2nd down with personnel that has to deal with the run and consider the run in play action. That means you have to run your base stuff well enough to make them sit in base stuff and being able to punish them if they choose to play light nickel/dime personnel. It's never going to be a complex run scheme that forces them to run blitz or bring safeties down into the box, but it does have to be able to hold it's own against 6 man fronts in 1st and 10 situations.
Washington in 2023 is pretty good example of that. They were far from an elite run team, and they didn't run the ball very much (27 attempts per game - #130 out of 136 in rush rate), but they were consistently pretty successful at it when they did it. They were not explosive, but they were successful and efficient.
Offensive Line Yards - #41 (3.25)
Rush Success Rate - #6 (52%)
Rush Explosiveness - #110 (0.874)
Here is where we stand in those 3 stats this year
Offensive Line Yards - #102 (2.73)
Rush Success Rate - #113 (39%)
Rush Explosiveness - #121 (0.823)
In case people don't know what "Success Rate" means, it's basically judging whether a play was successful in picking up yardage compared to the situation that you were in.
A play is defined as successful if:
It gains at least
* 40% of the yards required to move the chains on first down (aka 1st and 10 run run gains 4 yards or more)
* 60% of yards to gain on second down (aka 2nd and 6 run gains 4 yards or more)
* 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down (you get a 1st down or TD)
Washington achieved those metrics above 50% of the time when they ran the football in 2023, which is in the Top 10 in the country.
We achieve those goals 39% of the time when we run the football in 2025, which is in the Bottom 25 in the country.
The runs that are currently getting us 0-2 yards were getting Washington 3-5 yards. And that completely changes things - from the defensive calls to defensive player reactions on play action to being in 2nd and 6 vs 2nd and 9, which in turn changes the available play call options from Grubb.
Washington in 2023 is pretty good example of that. They were far from an elite run team, and they didn't run the ball very much (27 attempts per game - #130 out of 136 in rush rate), but they were consistently pretty successful at it when they did it. They were not explosive, but they were successful and efficient.
Offensive Line Yards - #41 (3.25)
Rush Success Rate - #6 (52%)
Rush Explosiveness - #110 (0.874)
Here is where we stand in those 3 stats this year
Offensive Line Yards - #102 (2.73)
Rush Success Rate - #113 (39%)
Rush Explosiveness - #121 (0.823)
In case people don't know what "Success Rate" means, it's basically judging whether a play was successful in picking up yardage compared to the situation that you were in.
A play is defined as successful if:
It gains at least
* 40% of the yards required to move the chains on first down (aka 1st and 10 run run gains 4 yards or more)
* 60% of yards to gain on second down (aka 2nd and 6 run gains 4 yards or more)
* 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down (you get a 1st down or TD)
Washington achieved those metrics above 50% of the time when they ran the football in 2023, which is in the Top 10 in the country.
We achieve those goals 39% of the time when we run the football in 2025, which is in the Bottom 25 in the country.
The runs that are currently getting us 0-2 yards were getting Washington 3-5 yards. And that completely changes things - from the defensive calls to defensive player reactions on play action to being in 2nd and 6 vs 2nd and 9, which in turn changes the available play call options from Grubb.
This post was edited on 11/12/25 at 4:49 pm
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Posted on 11/12/25 at 4:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
The run game is meant to keep the defense honest in a way that makes them play 1st and 2nd down with personnel that has to deal with the run and consider the run in play action. That means you have to run your base stuff well enough to make them sit in base stuff and being able to punish them if they choose to play light nickel/dime personnel. It's never going to be a complex run scheme that forces them to run blitz or bring safeties down into the box, but it does have to be able to hold it's own against 6 man fronts in 1st and 10 situations.
For us, does this mean that you have to keep the more experienced pass blocking/pass catching back over the potentially more talented younger guy?
This post was edited on 11/12/25 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 11/12/25 at 4:51 pm to Glorious
quote:
For us, does this mean that you have to keep the more experienced pass blocking back over the potentially more talented younger guy?
I hope not. I get Dear not playing if they just don't think he's ready to block at all or do everything right that is needed to prevent disaster plays, but at this point Hill is clearly a more consistent positive yardage guy and isn't a complete disaster in pass blocking. I'm very much hoping we see a lot more of him Saturday.
But who knows.
This post was edited on 11/12/25 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 11/12/25 at 6:19 pm to SummerOfGeorge
DeBoer and Grubb like more athletic OLinemen and We don’t have that yet. When we get their preferred type of Lineman that fit their schemes our Run game will be very good
Posted on 11/12/25 at 7:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I think Hill is going to get the majority of the snaps Saturday.
Posted on 11/12/25 at 10:39 pm to mistaken4193
quote:
DeBoer and Grubb like more athletic OLinemen
What do our olinemen do well? Do they do better zone blocking, traditional run blocking? Sometimes we will hit a good run with ol pulling, other times it seems as though we're our own worst enemy with missed blocks, not being in synch, or just being to slow.
Think we are what we are at this point but it would be nice to focus on the few things we do well.
Posted on 11/13/25 at 9:02 am to SummerOfGeorge
Thanks George. Good to have your input!
Posted on 11/13/25 at 9:15 am to mistaken4193
quote:
DeBoer and Grubb like more athletic OLinemen and We don’t have that yet. When we get their preferred type of Lineman that fit their schemes our Run game will be very good
This is what I was wondering about. What do we need here to make this successful (?).
Posted on 11/13/25 at 10:06 am to theballguy
the thing that perplexes me with this o-line the most. they're big but not roadgraders. they cant seem to push anyone backwards, doesnt matter who the opponent is. so you'd think they would be excellent at pass pro and they are good most of the time. until they go against speed. then they're to slow and discombobulated. idk...
Posted on 11/13/25 at 10:17 am to SummerOfGeorge
Speaking of running backs, does Richard Young still play for Alabama?
Posted on 11/13/25 at 10:19 am to SummerOfGeorge
We have a decent group of RBs but we don’t have that combo back that can do it all. We don’t have a back that will truly press the hole and slip through a crease. While we don’t have the ‘12 OL making impact craters in the opposing defense, there have been creases to exploit. The RBs either don’t “see” it or they don’t “trust” their ability to get through the crease so they bounce everything wide. We do have missed assignments happening as well, but our RBs aren’t helping all that much if we are being honest. Maybe some combination of Hill and Dear this weekend help.
Posted on 11/13/25 at 10:35 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Speaking of running backs, does Richard Young still play for Alabama?
Richard Young was running through drills in the practice footage posted for this week.
I didn't see Akylin Dear in the RBs practice footage again this week, maybe he's changed numbers?
Posted on 11/13/25 at 11:25 am to SummerOfGeorge
So, I get that their running scheme is more of a finesse than power with lots of misdirection/pulling lineman, etc. I saw that when people were breaking down washinton film on what our offense could be expected to look like. And that we need faster athletic lineman to do that.
My question is, do we know of any of those we have recruited yet or might be after later in the portal?
My question is, do we know of any of those we have recruited yet or might be after later in the portal?
Posted on 11/13/25 at 12:20 pm to NATidefan
quote:
My question is, do we know of any of those we have recruited yet or might be after later in the portal?
We've signed what everyone seems to think are elite level guys who fit their profile both in last year's class (Carroll, Lloyd) and the current class (Booker). Carroll seems to pretty clearly be a guy who will be very good very soon. We'll see on the others.
Posted on 11/13/25 at 6:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I don't know... I'm very skeptical that all we need is "his" guys. This is fairly simple blocking and it's not happening. This seems like coaching or scheme issue. Maybe trying to fit a square peg in round hole, which means he should adjust.. And that doesn't seem to be happening. Add in the fact that Grubb was let go from Seattle for lack of a run game and it just makes you start looking at coaching. Not that's just my uneducated opinion.
This post was edited on 11/13/25 at 6:02 pm
Posted on 11/14/25 at 10:47 am to bamabonners
And even in his absence Seattle still can’t run the ball, so maybe he wasn’t totally in the wrong?
The NIL era and fans’ impatience hasn’t changed the fact that specific coaches have specific philosophies and the expectation is that they will get to do things their way, not have to change their way when they land somewhere, and if it turns out that their way doesn’t work, you fire them and hire someone else but at least you have given the dude a fair chance to do his thing.
The bottom line is that as long as DeBoer and Grubb are here, we are not going to have the old-school rushing attack that traditionalists are pining for. We just are not. Hopefully we will have a much more effective rushing attack than the mess we have now, but it’s not going to ever be 2009 again.
The NIL era and fans’ impatience hasn’t changed the fact that specific coaches have specific philosophies and the expectation is that they will get to do things their way, not have to change their way when they land somewhere, and if it turns out that their way doesn’t work, you fire them and hire someone else but at least you have given the dude a fair chance to do his thing.
The bottom line is that as long as DeBoer and Grubb are here, we are not going to have the old-school rushing attack that traditionalists are pining for. We just are not. Hopefully we will have a much more effective rushing attack than the mess we have now, but it’s not going to ever be 2009 again.
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