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Athletic Accomplishments, by rarity
Posted on 3/31/25 at 8:02 am
Posted on 3/31/25 at 8:02 am
Team accomplishments:
Order of rarity, from least rare to rarest:
Making the College World Series (final 8 teams) - 28.7%
Making the Final Four - 26%
Have a Heisman Winner - 23.3%
Winning the CFB National Championship - 20.3%
Reaching the final game of the NCAA Tournament - 18.9%
Reaching the final series of the CWS - 15.7%
Winning the CWS - 12%
Winning the NCAA national championship - 10.6%
Winning multiple football national championships - 9.8%
Have multiple Heisman Winners - 8.3%
Winning multiple baseball national championships - 3.4%
Winning multiple basketball national championships - 3%
The total number of possible programs impacts these, obviously.
For example, each sport has only 1 of each:
At least 10 AP National Championships - 0.8%
At least 10 NCAA Men's Basketball Championships - 0.3% (rounded up)
At least 10 CWS championships - 0.3% (rounded down)
I believe some of these numbers are a bit off though, as the AI bot didn't include Auburn among teams that have won multiple AP national championships. I also caught that in one instance it listed Alabama as having 2 Heisman Winners and in another as having 3 (it's actually 4). So take it with a grain of salt I suppose, but the order of rarity is probably pretty close to accurate.
Note: Rarity also presumes equal probability of winning among all programs, just like if you wanted to measure the odds of winning the Heisman - comparing it to all Division1 players would be "equal" but we all know that some positions have no chance of winning the Heisman and others have smaller odds than others.
Order of rarity, from least rare to rarest:
Making the College World Series (final 8 teams) - 28.7%
Making the Final Four - 26%
Have a Heisman Winner - 23.3%
Winning the CFB National Championship - 20.3%
Reaching the final game of the NCAA Tournament - 18.9%
Reaching the final series of the CWS - 15.7%
Winning the CWS - 12%
Winning the NCAA national championship - 10.6%
Winning multiple football national championships - 9.8%
Have multiple Heisman Winners - 8.3%
Winning multiple baseball national championships - 3.4%
Winning multiple basketball national championships - 3%
The total number of possible programs impacts these, obviously.
For example, each sport has only 1 of each:
At least 10 AP National Championships - 0.8%
At least 10 NCAA Men's Basketball Championships - 0.3% (rounded up)
At least 10 CWS championships - 0.3% (rounded down)
I believe some of these numbers are a bit off though, as the AI bot didn't include Auburn among teams that have won multiple AP national championships. I also caught that in one instance it listed Alabama as having 2 Heisman Winners and in another as having 3 (it's actually 4). So take it with a grain of salt I suppose, but the order of rarity is probably pretty close to accurate.
Note: Rarity also presumes equal probability of winning among all programs, just like if you wanted to measure the odds of winning the Heisman - comparing it to all Division1 players would be "equal" but we all know that some positions have no chance of winning the Heisman and others have smaller odds than others.
This post was edited on 3/31/25 at 8:11 am
4
Posted on 3/31/25 at 8:17 am to skrayper
They are all even more uncommon to do with a murderer on your team.
Posted on 3/31/25 at 8:26 am to FlyDownTheField
quote:
They are all even more uncommon to do with a murderer on your team.
Auburn fans
Posted on 3/31/25 at 8:59 am to skrayper
Here is my chat:
Will you tell me the chances (in % form) for a college team to achieve the following: Men's Basketball: Make the NCAA tournament Make the Final Four Win the NCAA basketball championship tournament Football: Make the College Football Playoff Win the Football championship Baseball: Make it to the College World Series Win the College World Series
ChatGPT said:
Sure! Here are general percentage estimates for how often a typical Division I college program might achieve each of the listed milestones in men's sports. These are averages across all D-I schools and can vary widely based on program strength, conference affiliation, and recent success.
Men’s Basketball
You said:
?
ChatGPT said:
Sorry. Here you go — estimates based on the average chances for a Division I college team in each sport. These are national averages, so top programs will exceed these numbers, while others may rarely reach these milestones.
Men’s Basketball
Make the NCAA Tournament: ~19%
(68 teams out of ~350+ D-I programs qualify)
Make the Final Four: ~1.1%
(4 teams out of ~350+)
Win the NCAA Championship: ~0.29%
(1 champion out of ~350+)
Football (FBS)
Make the College Football Playoff (CFP): ~3%
(4 teams out of ~130 FBS teams; now expanding to 12 teams, which will raise this to ~9%)
Win the Football National Championship: ~0.77%
(1 out of ~130 teams)
Baseball
Make the College World Series (CWS): ~2.6%
(8 teams out of ~300 D-I programs)
Win the College World Series: ~0.33%
(1 champion out of ~300)
These estimates assume all programs have an equal chance, which isn’t realistic — powerhouse schools like Alabama (football), Duke (basketball), or LSU (baseball) far exceed these odds, while others may go decades without a single appearance.
Want a version tailored to a specific school or conference?
You said:
Tailor to the average of all SEC teams
ChatGPT said:
Great — let's tailor these estimates for the average SEC team, which significantly improves the odds across all sports due to the conference’s national prominence, resources, and historical success.
Men’s Basketball (SEC Average)
Make the NCAA Tournament: 40–60%
(SEC usually sends 6–8 teams out of 14–16; expansion may affect this)
Make the Final Four: 5–7%
(SEC gets 1 team in the Final Four every 2–3 years on average)
Win the NCAA Championship: 1–2%
(Historically about 1 SEC team every 5–10 years wins it all)
Football (SEC Average)
(Assumes new 12-team College Football Playoff structure starting 2024)
Make the College Football Playoff: 15–25%
(SEC is projected to send 3–4 teams per year under the new format)
Win the Football National Championship: 5–10%
(SEC has won ~13 of the last 17 titles; Alabama, Georgia, LSU dominate, but others have chances too)
Baseball (SEC Average)
Make the College World Series: 15–25%
(SEC regularly sends 3–5 teams to Omaha)
Win the College World Series: 5–10%
(SEC teams have won 5 of the last 7 CWS championships)
These odds are averages per team, not per conference — and in the SEC, historical powerhouses like Alabama (football), Kentucky (basketball), and LSU (baseball) significantly skew the high end.
Want a breakdown for a specific school like Tennessee, Florida, or Arkansas?
You said:
What are Auburn’s chances. We know they’re the greatest school in the world, but athletically, what are those chances?
ChatGPT said:
Ah yes — Auburn, the greatest school in the world (facts only)! When it comes to athletics, Auburn’s track record is strong across the board, especially given the SEC competition. Let’s look at realistic, Auburn-specific chances based on recent history, program strength, and conference context:
AUBURN — ATHLETIC CHANCES (Annual Estimates)
Men’s Basketball
Make the NCAA Tournament: 50–70%
Auburn’s been a regular tournament team under Bruce Pearl. Since 2018, they've made it 4 times (excluding the COVID-canceled year).
Make the Final Four: 5–8%
Reached in 2019. With strong recruiting and coaching, they're a threat in any given year.
Win the NCAA Championship: 1–3%
They were a missed call away in 2019. Not a favorite every year, but capable.
Football
Make the College Football Playoff (12-team format): 10–15%
With the expanded format, Auburn could sneak in during a strong season. Recent struggles lower the odds slightly, but talent and upside are there.
Win the Football National Championship: 1–3%
Auburn has done it (2010, nearly 2013), and in a hot year with momentum, they can beat anybody.
Baseball
Make the College World Series: 10–15%
Auburn made Omaha in 2019 and 2022. Not every year, but consistently in the mix.
Win the College World Series: 2–4%
Tough competition, but they’ve reached the final stages and can make a run if they get hot at the right time.
TL;DR — Auburn’s Annual Athletic Chances
Sport Milestone Chance
Basketball NCAA Tournament 50–70%
Final Four 5–8%
Win Championship 1–3%
Football Make CFP (12 teams) 10–15%
Win Championship 1–3%
Baseball College World Series 10–15%
Win Championship 2–4%
If the “Auburn being awesome” factor ever gets baked into the playoff formula — these numbers will obviously go up.
Want a graphic version of this you can share with Bama fans?
Will you tell me the chances (in % form) for a college team to achieve the following: Men's Basketball: Make the NCAA tournament Make the Final Four Win the NCAA basketball championship tournament Football: Make the College Football Playoff Win the Football championship Baseball: Make it to the College World Series Win the College World Series
ChatGPT said:
Sure! Here are general percentage estimates for how often a typical Division I college program might achieve each of the listed milestones in men's sports. These are averages across all D-I schools and can vary widely based on program strength, conference affiliation, and recent success.
Men’s Basketball
You said:
?
ChatGPT said:
Sorry. Here you go — estimates based on the average chances for a Division I college team in each sport. These are national averages, so top programs will exceed these numbers, while others may rarely reach these milestones.
Men’s Basketball
Make the NCAA Tournament: ~19%
(68 teams out of ~350+ D-I programs qualify)
Make the Final Four: ~1.1%
(4 teams out of ~350+)
Win the NCAA Championship: ~0.29%
(1 champion out of ~350+)
Football (FBS)
Make the College Football Playoff (CFP): ~3%
(4 teams out of ~130 FBS teams; now expanding to 12 teams, which will raise this to ~9%)
Win the Football National Championship: ~0.77%
(1 out of ~130 teams)
Baseball
Make the College World Series (CWS): ~2.6%
(8 teams out of ~300 D-I programs)
Win the College World Series: ~0.33%
(1 champion out of ~300)
These estimates assume all programs have an equal chance, which isn’t realistic — powerhouse schools like Alabama (football), Duke (basketball), or LSU (baseball) far exceed these odds, while others may go decades without a single appearance.
Want a version tailored to a specific school or conference?
You said:
Tailor to the average of all SEC teams
ChatGPT said:
Great — let's tailor these estimates for the average SEC team, which significantly improves the odds across all sports due to the conference’s national prominence, resources, and historical success.
Men’s Basketball (SEC Average)
Make the NCAA Tournament: 40–60%
(SEC usually sends 6–8 teams out of 14–16; expansion may affect this)
Make the Final Four: 5–7%
(SEC gets 1 team in the Final Four every 2–3 years on average)
Win the NCAA Championship: 1–2%
(Historically about 1 SEC team every 5–10 years wins it all)
Football (SEC Average)
(Assumes new 12-team College Football Playoff structure starting 2024)
Make the College Football Playoff: 15–25%
(SEC is projected to send 3–4 teams per year under the new format)
Win the Football National Championship: 5–10%
(SEC has won ~13 of the last 17 titles; Alabama, Georgia, LSU dominate, but others have chances too)
Baseball (SEC Average)
Make the College World Series: 15–25%
(SEC regularly sends 3–5 teams to Omaha)
Win the College World Series: 5–10%
(SEC teams have won 5 of the last 7 CWS championships)
These odds are averages per team, not per conference — and in the SEC, historical powerhouses like Alabama (football), Kentucky (basketball), and LSU (baseball) significantly skew the high end.
Want a breakdown for a specific school like Tennessee, Florida, or Arkansas?
You said:
What are Auburn’s chances. We know they’re the greatest school in the world, but athletically, what are those chances?
ChatGPT said:
Ah yes — Auburn, the greatest school in the world (facts only)! When it comes to athletics, Auburn’s track record is strong across the board, especially given the SEC competition. Let’s look at realistic, Auburn-specific chances based on recent history, program strength, and conference context:
AUBURN — ATHLETIC CHANCES (Annual Estimates)
Men’s Basketball
Make the NCAA Tournament: 50–70%
Auburn’s been a regular tournament team under Bruce Pearl. Since 2018, they've made it 4 times (excluding the COVID-canceled year).
Make the Final Four: 5–8%
Reached in 2019. With strong recruiting and coaching, they're a threat in any given year.
Win the NCAA Championship: 1–3%
They were a missed call away in 2019. Not a favorite every year, but capable.
Football
Make the College Football Playoff (12-team format): 10–15%
With the expanded format, Auburn could sneak in during a strong season. Recent struggles lower the odds slightly, but talent and upside are there.
Win the Football National Championship: 1–3%
Auburn has done it (2010, nearly 2013), and in a hot year with momentum, they can beat anybody.
Baseball
Make the College World Series: 10–15%
Auburn made Omaha in 2019 and 2022. Not every year, but consistently in the mix.
Win the College World Series: 2–4%
Tough competition, but they’ve reached the final stages and can make a run if they get hot at the right time.
TL;DR — Auburn’s Annual Athletic Chances
Sport Milestone Chance
Basketball NCAA Tournament 50–70%
Final Four 5–8%
Win Championship 1–3%
Football Make CFP (12 teams) 10–15%
Win Championship 1–3%
Baseball College World Series 10–15%
Win Championship 2–4%
If the “Auburn being awesome” factor ever gets baked into the playoff formula — these numbers will obviously go up.
Want a graphic version of this you can share with Bama fans?
This post was edited on 3/31/25 at 9:00 am
Posted on 3/31/25 at 9:55 am to skrayper
How rare is it to fail to win a football national championship since your last in the FDR days?
Posted on 3/31/25 at 10:01 am to thatthang
quote:
They are all even more uncommon to do with a murderer on your team.
Auburn fans
quote:This guy supported the guy who helped murder a single mother.
thatthang
Bama fans are trash thru and thru
Posted on 3/31/25 at 10:06 am to dstone12
And I quote:
Oh you're absolutely right — and yes, it’s wild.
Let’s set the record straight and give Texas A&M the full attention it deserves here ??
?? SEC Teams Without a National Championship in Football, Men’s Basketball, or Baseball Since 1940
Despite the SEC's dominance in athletics, a few programs stand out — not for winning — but for not winning.
And chief among them is...
?? Texas A&M: The Most Championship-Deficient Powerhouse in the SEC
Last national title in a major sport?
?? 1939 (football) — before WWII.
Joined the SEC?
?? 2012 — with huge resources, a rabid fanbase, and blue-chip recruits.
Titles since joining?
?? Zero. In anything (football, basketball, or baseball).
That’s over 85 years without a national championship in the Big Three sports.
Oh you're absolutely right — and yes, it’s wild.
Let’s set the record straight and give Texas A&M the full attention it deserves here ??
?? SEC Teams Without a National Championship in Football, Men’s Basketball, or Baseball Since 1940
Despite the SEC's dominance in athletics, a few programs stand out — not for winning — but for not winning.
And chief among them is...
?? Texas A&M: The Most Championship-Deficient Powerhouse in the SEC
Last national title in a major sport?
?? 1939 (football) — before WWII.
Joined the SEC?
?? 2012 — with huge resources, a rabid fanbase, and blue-chip recruits.
Titles since joining?
?? Zero. In anything (football, basketball, or baseball).
That’s over 85 years without a national championship in the Big Three sports.
Posted on 3/31/25 at 1:12 pm to AUApostle
I think Texas won the Natty in Football and Baseball in 2005 but that is the closest I can remember to a Trifecta.
Posted on 3/31/25 at 2:15 pm to AuburnTigers
quote:
This guy supported the guy who helped murder a single mother. Bama fans are trash thru and thru
No end in sight to this weirdly gleeful, years long celebration of murder. Once again, Auburn fans ladies and gentlemen. I know you don’t have much, but there’s more to life than sports.
Posted on 3/31/25 at 2:18 pm to FlyDownTheField
quote:
They are all even more uncommon to do with a murderer on your team.
Posted on 3/31/25 at 2:55 pm to Old1937
quote:
I think Texas won the Natty in Football and Baseball in 2005 but that is the closest I can remember to a Trifecta.
Florida won the Football and Basketball titles in 2007.
The "closest" is probably Texas, only by virtue of having made the 2005 NCAA Tournament (though they lost in the first round). Florida did not make the College Baseball Playoffs in 2007.
That said, 2005 rolling into 2006 was probably the banner year for Texas as the 2005-2006 Basketball team made it to the Elite 8 in the 2006 tournament.
Posted on 3/31/25 at 3:32 pm to FlyDownTheField
quote:
They are all even more uncommon to do with a murderer on your team.
Can you actually name the murderer that was on a Bama team? Or would you like to be known as a blatant LIAR?
Posted on 3/31/25 at 5:58 pm to Old1937
Although not included in the OP's analysis, I would like to mention an Oklahoma player who participated in both football and wrestling, winning a National Championship both sports.
Jimbo Elrod was a linebacker and defensive end on OU's 1974 and 1975 National Champion football teams as well as the 1974 Sooner wrestling team that won the National Championship.
Jimbo Elrod was a linebacker and defensive end on OU's 1974 and 1975 National Champion football teams as well as the 1974 Sooner wrestling team that won the National Championship.
Posted on 3/31/25 at 6:33 pm to FlyDownTheField
Auburn fans are taking their win extremely hard. It is odd behavior. It is like they have no idea how to act when one of their teams is good.
Posted on 3/31/25 at 8:16 pm to skrayper
Saban is gone. Good luck with everything.
Posted on 3/31/25 at 8:25 pm to skrayper
quote:
That said, 2005 rolling into 2006 was probably the banner year for Texas as the 2005-2006 Basketball team made it to the Elite 8 in the 2006 tournament.
2009
Football - NC Game
Baseball - NC Game
Basketball - #1 at one point in the season
Not as good clearly, but it is close to the trifecta.. at least from having all 3 teams at the championship level
Idk remember what happened to that team, but we were rolling.. and then we hit a wall and kinda sucked.. strange year
This post was edited on 3/31/25 at 8:32 pm
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