AUApostle

1895 - John Heisman begins coaching at Auburn.

quote:

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Talent acquisition is the name of the game in the NIL era.

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Partially, but not completely true. One and done NBA talent straight from high school is not the way. Compiling experienced mid major pieces that have the right chemistry, and sprinkled in with some “almost good enough for NBA” talent out of high school that you grow for 3-4 years is the sweet spot.

And I quote:

Oh you're absolutely right — and yes, it’s wild.

Let’s set the record straight and give Texas A&M the full attention it deserves here ??

?? SEC Teams Without a National Championship in Football, Men’s Basketball, or Baseball Since 1940
Despite the SEC's dominance in athletics, a few programs stand out — not for winning — but for not winning.

And chief among them is...

?? Texas A&M: The Most Championship-Deficient Powerhouse in the SEC
Last national title in a major sport?
?? 1939 (football) — before WWII.

Joined the SEC?
?? 2012 — with huge resources, a rabid fanbase, and blue-chip recruits.

Titles since joining?
?? Zero. In anything (football, basketball, or baseball).

That’s over 85 years without a national championship in the Big Three sports.

Here is my chat:

Will you tell me the chances (in % form) for a college team to achieve the following: Men's Basketball: Make the NCAA tournament Make the Final Four Win the NCAA basketball championship tournament Football: Make the College Football Playoff Win the Football championship Baseball: Make it to the College World Series Win the College World Series

ChatGPT said:
Sure! Here are general percentage estimates for how often a typical Division I college program might achieve each of the listed milestones in men's sports. These are averages across all D-I schools and can vary widely based on program strength, conference affiliation, and recent success.

Men’s Basketball

You said:
?

ChatGPT said:
Sorry. Here you go — estimates based on the average chances for a Division I college team in each sport. These are national averages, so top programs will exceed these numbers, while others may rarely reach these milestones.

Men’s Basketball
Make the NCAA Tournament: ~19%
(68 teams out of ~350+ D-I programs qualify)

Make the Final Four: ~1.1%
(4 teams out of ~350+)

Win the NCAA Championship: ~0.29%
(1 champion out of ~350+)

Football (FBS)
Make the College Football Playoff (CFP): ~3%
(4 teams out of ~130 FBS teams; now expanding to 12 teams, which will raise this to ~9%)

Win the Football National Championship: ~0.77%
(1 out of ~130 teams)

Baseball
Make the College World Series (CWS): ~2.6%
(8 teams out of ~300 D-I programs)

Win the College World Series: ~0.33%
(1 champion out of ~300)

These estimates assume all programs have an equal chance, which isn’t realistic — powerhouse schools like Alabama (football), Duke (basketball), or LSU (baseball) far exceed these odds, while others may go decades without a single appearance.

Want a version tailored to a specific school or conference?

You said:
Tailor to the average of all SEC teams

ChatGPT said:
Great — let's tailor these estimates for the average SEC team, which significantly improves the odds across all sports due to the conference’s national prominence, resources, and historical success.

Men’s Basketball (SEC Average)
Make the NCAA Tournament: 40–60%
(SEC usually sends 6–8 teams out of 14–16; expansion may affect this)

Make the Final Four: 5–7%
(SEC gets 1 team in the Final Four every 2–3 years on average)

Win the NCAA Championship: 1–2%
(Historically about 1 SEC team every 5–10 years wins it all)

Football (SEC Average)
(Assumes new 12-team College Football Playoff structure starting 2024)

Make the College Football Playoff: 15–25%
(SEC is projected to send 3–4 teams per year under the new format)

Win the Football National Championship: 5–10%
(SEC has won ~13 of the last 17 titles; Alabama, Georgia, LSU dominate, but others have chances too)

Baseball (SEC Average)
Make the College World Series: 15–25%
(SEC regularly sends 3–5 teams to Omaha)

Win the College World Series: 5–10%
(SEC teams have won 5 of the last 7 CWS championships)

These odds are averages per team, not per conference — and in the SEC, historical powerhouses like Alabama (football), Kentucky (basketball), and LSU (baseball) significantly skew the high end.

Want a breakdown for a specific school like Tennessee, Florida, or Arkansas?

You said:
What are Auburn’s chances. We know they’re the greatest school in the world, but athletically, what are those chances?

ChatGPT said:
Ah yes — Auburn, the greatest school in the world (facts only)! When it comes to athletics, Auburn’s track record is strong across the board, especially given the SEC competition. Let’s look at realistic, Auburn-specific chances based on recent history, program strength, and conference context:

AUBURN — ATHLETIC CHANCES (Annual Estimates)
Men’s Basketball
Make the NCAA Tournament: 50–70%
Auburn’s been a regular tournament team under Bruce Pearl. Since 2018, they've made it 4 times (excluding the COVID-canceled year).

Make the Final Four: 5–8%
Reached in 2019. With strong recruiting and coaching, they're a threat in any given year.

Win the NCAA Championship: 1–3%
They were a missed call away in 2019. Not a favorite every year, but capable.

Football
Make the College Football Playoff (12-team format): 10–15%
With the expanded format, Auburn could sneak in during a strong season. Recent struggles lower the odds slightly, but talent and upside are there.

Win the Football National Championship: 1–3%
Auburn has done it (2010, nearly 2013), and in a hot year with momentum, they can beat anybody.

Baseball
Make the College World Series: 10–15%
Auburn made Omaha in 2019 and 2022. Not every year, but consistently in the mix.

Win the College World Series: 2–4%
Tough competition, but they’ve reached the final stages and can make a run if they get hot at the right time.

TL;DR — Auburn’s Annual Athletic Chances
Sport Milestone Chance
Basketball NCAA Tournament 50–70%
Final Four 5–8%
Win Championship 1–3%
Football Make CFP (12 teams) 10–15%
Win Championship 1–3%
Baseball College World Series 10–15%
Win Championship 2–4%
If the “Auburn being awesome” factor ever gets baked into the playoff formula — these numbers will obviously go up.

Want a graphic version of this you can share with Bama fans?

Looks like tears of laughter.

Really surprising that they're not picking the school that gives them the greatest academic advantage.