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Investigating the Accuracy of College Football Recruiting Rankings
Posted on 12/24/24 at 5:51 am
Posted on 12/24/24 at 5:51 am
This is a very interesting look at it..... LINK
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Posted on 12/24/24 at 6:06 am to flagshipuniversity
It’s a bad premise from the start.
His very first statistic is “only 13% of pros were 5-stars; 60% were 2-3 stars”
Mind you, there are only 32 5-stars each year and the draft has 257 picks each year…
The far better measure is % of 5-stars that make the NFL vs the % of 3-stars that make it. You’ll find that the services do a pretty good job between the tiers.
His very first statistic is “only 13% of pros were 5-stars; 60% were 2-3 stars”
Mind you, there are only 32 5-stars each year and the draft has 257 picks each year…
The far better measure is % of 5-stars that make the NFL vs the % of 3-stars that make it. You’ll find that the services do a pretty good job between the tiers.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 6:09 am to flagshipuniversity
I really don't even know why Chicken has a recruiting board. No one wants to go there. 
Posted on 12/24/24 at 6:53 am to BornAndRaised_LA
I am pretty sure that "I" used the word "interesting"....
Posted on 12/24/24 at 6:55 am to bigDgator
It's obvious that you made your comment without even looking at the link. Geez....you are the guy every scammer on Earth hopes to find on the end of the phone call.
quote:
I really don't even know why Chicken has a recruiting board. No one wants to go there
Posted on 12/24/24 at 7:03 am to flagshipuniversity
Do you think that eating crayons is also very interesting
Posted on 12/24/24 at 7:10 am to flagshipuniversity
quote:
It's obvious that you made your comment without even looking at the link. Geez....you are the guy every scammer on Earth hopes to find on the end of the phone call.
I believe his point is that we have a board specifically for the discussion of recruiting and recruiting classes.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 7:57 am to BornAndRaised_LA
What’s crazy is the star break down of pro bowlers from last year. The defense side is almost nothing but former blue chips while the offensive side was about 50/50.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 8:25 am to BornAndRaised_LA
Many of those 3 stars have traits coaches spot which they believe can be developed into an elite player/they played for non-elite high schools that didn’t properly develop them
This is actually almost always the case for 330+ lb 0 techs, which take multiple years to develop and almost no high school is equipped to do it
This is actually almost always the case for 330+ lb 0 techs, which take multiple years to develop and almost no high school is equipped to do it
This post was edited on 12/24/24 at 8:26 am
Posted on 12/24/24 at 8:30 am to pubes
quote:Strange that you would use that subject, so I am going to assume that you actually eat crayons. I would find the 'reason' you choose to eat crayons interesting. So yes....
Do you think that eating crayons is also very interesting
Posted on 12/24/24 at 8:35 am to flagshipuniversity
quote:
It's obvious that you made your comment without even looking at the link. Geez....you are the guy every scammer on Earth hopes to find on the end of the phone call.
I watched the video for about 5 minutes. I was going to post about the percentages, meaning he is comparing a lot more 2 and 3 stars to a lot fewer 4 and 5 stars, but then I remembered that I really don't give a shite about recruiting.
And it was an interesting look into it, regardless of the numbers. Pretty fascinating about the QB's and how few of the most successful ones were highly rated. So nothing wrong with your thread, and the video was a good find.
I just personally have a thing about everyone posting recruiting stuff OTR.
Hopefully no hard feelings.
This post was edited on 12/24/24 at 8:43 am
Posted on 12/24/24 at 8:45 am to flagshipuniversity
Are recruiting rankings attempting to rank their future NFL careers or rank guys on their ability to help a college team win?
There are an extremely tiny amount of 5 star recruits. 13% of the NFL being 5 star recruits shows the rankings are great, no?
There are an extremely tiny amount of 5 star recruits. 13% of the NFL being 5 star recruits shows the rankings are great, no?
Posted on 12/24/24 at 9:27 am to flagshipuniversity
The takeaway is that it is much easier to evaluate how fast and strong a player is than it is to evaluate their split second decision making ability or ability to diagnose the other team. The more cerebral positions are more difficult to evaluate and predict than the run ball/catch ball/tackle ball positions.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 9:41 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Are recruiting rankings attempting to rank their future NFL careers or rank guys on their ability to help a college team win?
From 247
quote:
We mirror our Top247 after the NFL Draft. There are 32 first-round picks every year, which is why we have 32 five-stars. So, if we award a prospect a fifth star, we believe that they have one of the best chances out of anyone in the cycle to eventually blossom into a Day 1 pick.
quote:
Outside of the five-stars, you have what we call Day 2 and Day 3 projections. The second round of the NFL Draft is usually picks 33-64 with the third round going from pick 65 to pick 105. Any prospect that we slot in that range is viewed by us as a potential Day 2 selection. Again, we are not going to be right on everyone, but prospects in this neighborhood usually check off box after box for us. Anyone ranked from 106 to 247 is considered a Day 3 projection, which would be rounds three, four, five, six and seven of the NFL Draft. After that we have roughly 100 four-stars outside the Top247. These are essentially priority free agents and in most cases they are prospects that have a case to be inside the Top247. We have tried to get way more conservative with naming four-stars early on in the cycle because we want these prospect's arrows to be pointing up as they embark on the next steps in their careers and we only have so many spots to use.
quote:
When it comes to the three-stars, this is where a bulk of college football players will be ranked and it's an area we have really tried to improve in recent years. If you go down our grading scale, you will see that a prospect with a grade of an 89 can be a really, really good college football player and potentially even an NFL Draft pick. The same goes for an 88 or an 87. We always get asked why isn't this prospect a four-star? Well, if we made everyone a four-star, then the question would quickly become, why isn't this prospect a five-star? At some point you have to draw a line in the sand and take your calculated shots, and I think we are as equipped as anyone when it comes to having a grasp on the class nationally
Posted on 12/24/24 at 11:26 am to flagshipuniversity
quote:
I am pretty sure that "I" used the word "interesting"....
Wasn’t criticizing you, only the video’s “interesting” take on it. Got no issues with you. Have a great Christmas
Posted on 12/24/24 at 11:50 am to BornAndRaised_LA
quote:TSRH ^^
It’s a bad premise from the start.
His very first statistic is “only 13% of pros were 5-stars; 60% were 2-3 stars”
Mind you, there are only 32 5-stars each year and the draft has 257 picks each year…
The far better measure is % of 5-stars that make the NFL vs the % of 3-stars that make it. You’ll find that the services do a pretty good job between the tiers.
Anything that only looks at raw numbers while ignoring percentages is null and void.
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