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Teams still alive in the playoff picture

Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:40 pm
Posted by Madmax77
mandeville
Member since Dec 2015
185 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:40 pm
I know none of this matter, just bad NFL games on and decided to dive into how the playoff could possibly shake out. There are, in my opinion, 25 teams with a chance to reach the CFP. This includes, 9 from the SEC, 4 from the Big 10, 4 from the Big 12, 5 from the ACC, and 3 from outside power 4. However, 8 teams will be eliminated due to having to play each other in the last 4 weeks, leaving 17 potential playoff teams. As crazy as it it to say, I think Vandy and South Carolina have a greater than 0% chance of making it in, not that I think they will. Even Louisville to a much lesser degree.

Vandy (yes.. Vanderbilt) will have beaten Bama, LSU, Tennessee, and USCe. Even with a horrible loss in week 2 to Georgia State, I think they’d have one of the stronger resume’s in the country.

South Carolina will have beaten A&M, Vandy, and Clemson, with losses to LSU and Bama coming by a combined 5 points. They are clearly much better than their record would suggest. Would need a massive amount of help, but still possible in my opinion.

Louisville would need hell to freeze over…

Only 3/11 of the following teams can make it in:
LSU, Bama, Vandy, USCe, Clemson, Iowa State, K state, Pitt, Louisville, ND, and Army

Least/Most bids for each conference:
0/2 of Boise, ND, or Army
1/2 from ACC
1/2 from Big 12
3/4 form Big 10
4/6 from SEC

My (expert) prediction:
Oregon
UGA
Texas
Ohio State
Miami
BYU
Penn State
Notre Dame
Indiana
Tennessee
Boise State
LSU (not a homer pick)

And since this year is as close to '07 as we've had, let's get weird.

Oregon
Indiana
BYU
Ole Miss
Georgia
Penn State
Army
Boise
A&M
SMU
Miami
LSU (not a homer pick)




Posted by RollingwiththeTide62
Member since Aug 2024
4057 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:51 pm to
Not a homer pick

Oregon
Bama
Miami
BYU
GA
OHIO ST
TEXAS
TENNESSEE
NOTRE DAME
PENN ST
Indiana
BOISE ST

This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 7:06 pm
Posted by RTRnFlorida
Member since Mar 2024
3093 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:55 pm to
Don’t see the Big 10 getting three in. Bama and LSU are actually in great spots. Win and they’re in. No extra hard fought SEC title game. They get a mid range seed and then get to gear up for one game to get in. This weekends game is huge. I just hope both teams show up
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 6:56 pm
Posted by msudawg1200
Central Mississippi
Member since Jun 2014
10838 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 6:58 pm to
quote:

Don’t see the Big 10 getting three in

They're most definitely getting 3. Hell, maybe even 4. Ohio St and Oregon are locks. At least one, and maybe both, of Penn St and Indiana are getting in.
Posted by VoxDawg
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
76970 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:00 pm to
The loser of a UGA v Texas SECCG couldn't be any higher than 5, presuming both win out for the regular season.
Posted by RTRnFlorida
Member since Mar 2024
3093 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:03 pm to
No way. Put money on the under. If Indiana beats Ohio state they’re in. And then possibly 4. That’s the only way. If Indiana loses that game then they’re out even with one loss. They won’t have the resume

I do see three but it’s a shame given Penn States schedule. Lose one game and yet they’re a lock. Their schedule is horrific. Basically a Texas SEC schedule.

Only one big game and unranked or mediocre teams the rest of the way.
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 7:05 pm
Posted by Madmax77
mandeville
Member since Dec 2015
185 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:04 pm to
IMO Oregon is a lock, Penn state is basically a lock bc they play nobody the rest of the way, Ohio st is likely still in if they lose to indiana, and I think Indina can lose and still get in. Think 3 is a lock and 4 is very possible
Posted by BamaBravesPackers
Member since Nov 2021
9214 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:06 pm to
quote:

Don’t see the Big 10 getting three in.


Umm, there’s literally almost no mathematical way that 2 of OSU, Oregon, Penn St, and Indiana get left out. There’s only 4 games to play (3 for Indiana) and both teams that make the Big10 championship will definitely get in.

Indiana would have to lose 3 straight (one of which is a one win Purdue team at home) and Penn State would have to lose 2 of the next 4 (one of which is Purdue on the road and collectively the 4 teams have 18 losses). While one of these might happen, both is almost impossible.
Posted by Madmax77
mandeville
Member since Dec 2015
185 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:07 pm to
You might be right, it would likely come down to if the committe valued a 1 loss big ten team with a light schedule or a team from the SEC with potentially 3 losses.
Posted by UnclePat76
McHenry County Illinois
Member since Sep 2004
3793 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:08 pm to
quote:

I do see three but it’s a shame given Penn States schedule. Lose


Amen. Illinois has been their top victory.
Posted by BamaBravesPackers
Member since Nov 2021
9214 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

You might be right, it would likely come down to if the committe valued a 1 loss big ten team with a light schedule or a team from the SEC with potentially 3 losses.


There will be absolutely zero teams from the SEC or BIG10 that have 1 loss left out of the playoffs over the next 5 years. Will not happen.

I think there is a very, very low chance that even a 2 loss team from these conferences gets left out (only chance would be if there are 5 teams from one conference with 2 or fewer losses). The SEC/BIG10 would pull out of the playoffs or change the rules to a 14 team playoff with each getting 4 guaranteed teams. Committee doesn’t want any part of leaving out a 2 loss BIG10/SEC team.
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 7:43 pm
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
7828 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:27 pm to
quote:

Umm, there’s literally almost no mathematical way that 2 of OSU, Oregon, Penn St, and Indiana get left out.


Sure there is. It just requires a couple of upsets.

Michigan gets their shite together and beats OSU and Indiana.
Minnesota and UW beat PSU.
OSU beats Indiana.

Oregon is undefeated. They beat OSU again in the Big 10 championship game giving OSU their 3rd loss.

Oregon and either Indiana or OSU get in... but probably not both Indiana and OSU.
Posted by scottydoesntknow
Member since Nov 2023
10870 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:31 pm to
If LSU can beat Bama on Saturday, I see nothing off with your prediction
Posted by BamaBravesPackers
Member since Nov 2021
9214 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

Sure there is. It just requires a couple of upsets. Michigan gets their shite together and beats OSU and Indiana. Minnesota and UW beat PSU. OSU beats Indiana.


A couple? The probability of all of these happening this season is way less than 1%. Even just Michigan beating OSU is less than 7%.

Again, it’s almost mathematically impossible at this point, and would take UF luck of QB injuries for at least 2 of the teams (and both Indiana and PSU have already won with backup QBs).
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 7:40 pm
Posted by Sweet Pickles
Member since Mar 2017
451 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:42 pm to
Big Ten gets a minimum of 3 in unless chaos ensues. Indiana is in a great position. As long as they beat Michigan and Purdue they are in. If they beat OSU they go to championship game and are in. Lose and the only have 1 loss and avoid Oregon. They are in. Oregon is in. OSU is in with a win against IU and they otherwise take care of business. Penn St gets in if they win the rest of their games.
Posted by RealDawg
Dawgville
Member since Nov 2012
11302 posts
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

Don’t see the Big 10 getting three in


I see them trying their best to spread the love around. The initial rankings won’t mean shite.

IRVING, Texas – The College Football Playoff (CFP) Management Committee has appointed University of Michigan Athletics Director Warde Manuel as selection committee chair for the 2024 football season, it was announced today by Bill Hancock, Executive Director of the CFP. Manuel replaces Boo Corrigan, the athletics director at NC State, who served as chair for the past two seasons.

Hancock also announced that the Management Committee has appointed Patrick Chun, athletics director at Washington State University; Randall McDaniel, former All-American offensive lineman from Arizona State University; Gary Pinkel, longtime head coach at the University of Toledo and University of Missouri; Mack Rhoades, athletics director at Baylor University; Carla Williams, athletics director at the University of Virginia; and Hunter Yurachek, athletics director at the University of Arkansas, to the CFP Selection Committee.
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