Started By
Message
Return of the YPP Model - Week 8 : Alabama vs Tennessee (also UGA/Texas)
Posted on 10/15/24 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 10/15/24 at 3:34 pm
We're far enough into the season that we have enough data to start running these again. All stats are Power 4 vs Power 4 only - no stats from FCS or G5/6 leagues included.
#11 TENNESSEE (5-1, 2-1) VS #7 ALABAMA (5-1, 2-1)
ALABAMA -3, O/U 56.5
Vegas Projection
Alabama - 29
Tennessee - 26
YPP MODEL PROJECTION
ALABAMA - 26
TENNESSEE - 23
ALABAMA OFFENSE
376 Total Yards on 59 Plays (6.38 YPP)
291 Pass Yards on 27 Att (10.78 YPA)
85 Rush Yards on 32 Att (2.67 YPA)
TENNESSEE OFFENSE
318 Total Yards on 70 Plays (4.55 YPA)
179 Pass Yards on 25 Att (7.18 YPA)
139 Rush Yards on 45 Att (3.09 YPA)
- Alabama Offense averages 11.00 Pass Yards Per Attempt, 169% of opponents average allowed (6.51)
- Alabama Offense averages 4.34 Rush Yards Per Attempt, 111% of opponents average allowed (3.90)
- Alabama Offense averages 0.0873 points per yard
- Alabama Defense allows 8.00 Pass Yards Per Attempt, 95% of opponents average (8.46)
- Alabama Defense allows 3.29 Rush Yards Per Attempt, 73% of opponents average (4.51)
- Alabama Defense allows 0.0688 points per yard
- Tennessee Offense averages 7.39 Pass Yards Per Attempt, 92% of opponents average allowed (8.03)
- Tennessee Offense averages 4.10 Rush Yards Per Attempt, 97% of opponents average allowed (4.23)
- Tennessee Offense averages 0.0780 points per yard
- Tennessee Defense allows 6.90 Pass Yards Per Attempt, 90% of opponents average (7.67)
- Tennessee Defense allows 2.40 Rush Yards Per Attempt, 62% of opponents average (3.90)
- Tennessee Defense allows 0.0526 points per yard
#1 TEXAS (6-0, 2-0) VS #5 GEORGIA (5-1, 3-1)
TEXAS -3.5, O/U 56.55
Vegas Projection
Texas - 30
Georgia - 26
YPP MODEL PROJECTION
TEXAS - 27
GEORGIA - 18
TEXAS OFFENSE
409 Total Yards on 64 Plays (6.39 YPP)
246 Pass Yards on 33 Att (7.46 YPA)
163 Rush Yards on 31 Att (5.25 YPA)
GEORGIA OFFENSE
357 Total Yards on 67 Plays (5.32 YPA)
261 Pass Yards on 37 Att (7.05 YPA)
96 Rush Yards on 30 Att (3.18 YPA)
#11 TENNESSEE (5-1, 2-1) VS #7 ALABAMA (5-1, 2-1)
ALABAMA -3, O/U 56.5
Vegas Projection
Alabama - 29
Tennessee - 26
YPP MODEL PROJECTION
ALABAMA - 26
TENNESSEE - 23
ALABAMA OFFENSE
376 Total Yards on 59 Plays (6.38 YPP)
291 Pass Yards on 27 Att (10.78 YPA)
85 Rush Yards on 32 Att (2.67 YPA)
TENNESSEE OFFENSE
318 Total Yards on 70 Plays (4.55 YPA)
179 Pass Yards on 25 Att (7.18 YPA)
139 Rush Yards on 45 Att (3.09 YPA)
- Alabama Offense averages 11.00 Pass Yards Per Attempt, 169% of opponents average allowed (6.51)
- Alabama Offense averages 4.34 Rush Yards Per Attempt, 111% of opponents average allowed (3.90)
- Alabama Offense averages 0.0873 points per yard
- Alabama Defense allows 8.00 Pass Yards Per Attempt, 95% of opponents average (8.46)
- Alabama Defense allows 3.29 Rush Yards Per Attempt, 73% of opponents average (4.51)
- Alabama Defense allows 0.0688 points per yard
- Tennessee Offense averages 7.39 Pass Yards Per Attempt, 92% of opponents average allowed (8.03)
- Tennessee Offense averages 4.10 Rush Yards Per Attempt, 97% of opponents average allowed (4.23)
- Tennessee Offense averages 0.0780 points per yard
- Tennessee Defense allows 6.90 Pass Yards Per Attempt, 90% of opponents average (7.67)
- Tennessee Defense allows 2.40 Rush Yards Per Attempt, 62% of opponents average (3.90)
- Tennessee Defense allows 0.0526 points per yard
#1 TEXAS (6-0, 2-0) VS #5 GEORGIA (5-1, 3-1)
TEXAS -3.5, O/U 56.55
Vegas Projection
Texas - 30
Georgia - 26
YPP MODEL PROJECTION
TEXAS - 27
GEORGIA - 18
TEXAS OFFENSE
409 Total Yards on 64 Plays (6.39 YPP)
246 Pass Yards on 33 Att (7.46 YPA)
163 Rush Yards on 31 Att (5.25 YPA)
GEORGIA OFFENSE
357 Total Yards on 67 Plays (5.32 YPA)
261 Pass Yards on 37 Att (7.05 YPA)
96 Rush Yards on 30 Att (3.18 YPA)
This post was edited on 10/15/24 at 4:11 pm
6
Posted on 10/15/24 at 3:36 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Interesting.
Guess their offense isn't so great after all.
Guess their offense isn't so great after all.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 3:37 pm to TideSaint
quote:
Guess their offense isn't so great after all.
It's been average to bad against mostly average defenses.
Their defense, however, is very good.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 3:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Tennessee Offense averages 4.10 Rush Yards Per Attempt, 97% of opponents average allowed (4.23)
Interesting because their two lead backs are average 5.9 and 6.9 yards per carry (group of 5 and FCS included)
Posted on 10/15/24 at 3:38 pm to TideSaint
quote:
Guess their offense isn't so great after all.
40th ranked FEI offense in the country so far.
Their defense is keeping them in games so far.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 3:40 pm to Glorious
quote:
group of 5 and FCS included
Playing a FCS team and the worst team in FBS will help out tremendously
vs Chattanooga : 304 yards on 46 carries (6.61 YPA)
vs Kent State : 456 yards on 55 carries (8.29 YPA)
Combined : 760 yards on 101 carries (7.53 YPA)
vs P5 teams : 717 yards on 175 carries (4.10 YPA)
Posted on 10/15/24 at 3:42 pm to SummerOfGeorge
NC State is also not good at all. They lost back to back games against Syracuse and Wake Forest.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 4:09 pm to TideSaint
Until this week when they miraculously figure out how to hang 50 on us 
Posted on 10/15/24 at 5:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
ALABAMA - 26
TENNESSEE - 23
And our fans will melt harder after a "close win" than Tennessee fans will after a loss...
Posted on 10/15/24 at 5:36 pm to PuertoRicanBlaze
JMO but I believe the sane Bama fans understand this bunch isn't elite and a WIN will be much appreciated going forward.
Then again, the BSC will always have the old recruiting rankings locked and loaded.
Just win no matter how ugly.
Then again, the BSC will always have the old recruiting rankings locked and loaded.
Just win no matter how ugly.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 5:36 pm to PuertoRicanBlaze
quote:
And our fans will melt harder after a "close win" than Tennessee fans will after a loss...
You must not know any Tennessee fans
Posted on 10/15/24 at 5:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
This feels like a game where aggressive defense and blitzing would greatly throw off their passing game and young QB.
Can’t wait to watch us drop back in zone on passing downs so the QB can get in a groove.
Can’t wait to watch us drop back in zone on passing downs so the QB can get in a groove.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 6:26 pm to ReauxlTide222
Wommack going to drop a UNO reverse card and blitz 91% of the time.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 7:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
#19 MISSOURI (5-1, 1-1) VS AUBURN (2-4, 0-3)
MISSOURI -4.5, O/U 51.5
Vegas Projection
Missouri - 28
Auburn - 24
YPP MODEL PROJECTION
AUBURN- 27
MISSOURI - 25
AUBURN OFFENSE
458 Total Yards on 62 Plays (7.38 YPP)
296 Pass Yards on 29 Att (10.20 YPA)
162 Rush Yards on 33 Att (4.90 YPA)
MISSOURI OFFENSE
370 Total Yards on 71 Plays (5.21 YPA)
212 Pass Yards on 33 Att (6.43 YPA)
158 Rush Yards on 38 Att (4.15 YPA)
OKLAHOMA (4-2, 1-2) VS SOUTH CAROLINA (3-3, 1-3)
OKLAHOMA -3, O/U 40.5
Vegas Projection
Oklahoma - 22
South Carolina - 19
YPP MODEL PROJECTION
SOUTH CAROLINA -21
OKLAHOMA - 18
SOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
329 Total Yards on 65 Plays (5.05 YPP)
216 Pass Yards on 25 Att (8.64 YPA)
112 Rush Yards on 40 Att (2.81 YPA)
OKLAHOMA OFFENSE
264 Total Yards on 63 Plays (4.20 YPA)
177 Pass Yards on 28 Att (6.32 YPA)
88 Rush Yards on 35 Att (2.50 YPA)
MISSOURI -4.5, O/U 51.5
Vegas Projection
Missouri - 28
Auburn - 24
YPP MODEL PROJECTION
AUBURN- 27
MISSOURI - 25
AUBURN OFFENSE
458 Total Yards on 62 Plays (7.38 YPP)
296 Pass Yards on 29 Att (10.20 YPA)
162 Rush Yards on 33 Att (4.90 YPA)
MISSOURI OFFENSE
370 Total Yards on 71 Plays (5.21 YPA)
212 Pass Yards on 33 Att (6.43 YPA)
158 Rush Yards on 38 Att (4.15 YPA)
OKLAHOMA (4-2, 1-2) VS SOUTH CAROLINA (3-3, 1-3)
OKLAHOMA -3, O/U 40.5
Vegas Projection
Oklahoma - 22
South Carolina - 19
YPP MODEL PROJECTION
SOUTH CAROLINA -21
OKLAHOMA - 18
SOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
329 Total Yards on 65 Plays (5.05 YPP)
216 Pass Yards on 25 Att (8.64 YPA)
112 Rush Yards on 40 Att (2.81 YPA)
OKLAHOMA OFFENSE
264 Total Yards on 63 Plays (4.20 YPA)
177 Pass Yards on 28 Att (6.32 YPA)
88 Rush Yards on 35 Att (2.50 YPA)
Posted on 10/15/24 at 7:46 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
291 Pass Yards on 27 Att (10.78 YPA)
Beautiful
quote:
85 Rush Yards on 32 Att (2.67 YPA)
Disgusting
Posted on 10/15/24 at 8:55 pm to TideSaint
quote:
Guess their offense isn't so great after all.
I don't know many things, but I know Heupel runs a good scheme and Nico is a talented QB.
Nico has been in a funk, and it's affected everything else.
And, I know even Stephen Garcia can look Heisman like vs Bama at times. Wommack has a challenge. He has to pressure Nico and not let him have that rally game moment.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 9:21 pm to Che Boludo
quote:
He has to pressure Nico
We are very close to last in FBS on blitz rate, so don’t get your hopes up
Posted on 10/15/24 at 9:40 pm to bamabenny
quote:
We are very close to last in FBS on blitz rate, so don’t get your hopes up
But, muh swarm
Posted on 10/16/24 at 6:11 am to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
quote:
JMO but I believe the sane Bama fans understand this bunch isn't elite and a WIN will be much appreciated going forward.
Anyone who saw the 1H of the UGA game knows this team can be elite.
They just haven’t been consistent.
-OL need to get healthy and run block more effectively to take pressure off Milroe
-Milroe needs to be spoon fed the offense before his helmet mic cuts off
-The LBs need to be worked with to lose the tentative approach or we need to replace them
-Whatever is happening with the coverage busts deep has to be addressed or we will likely lose to TN and LSU resulting in us missing the playoffs. Not sure if it’s calls, communication or talent back there but it’s not going to work if the goal is still winning the conference and making the CFP
Posted on 10/16/24 at 7:22 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
This feels like a game where aggressive defense and blitzing would greatly throw off their passing game and young QB. Can’t wait to watch us drop back in zone on passing downs so the QB can get in a groove.
Arkansas dropped 8 most of the game and completely threw off their timing. I don’t know if matching our DBs up 1-1 in all that space against their WRs is a great play either, especially when we can’t tackle.
This post was edited on 10/16/24 at 7:25 am
Page 1 of 2
Latest Alabama News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News