Started By
Message
SOGa+ Rankings post-Week 2 and Week 3 picks
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:36 pm
Too early really, but why the heck not. Only includes FBS vs FBS games so a lot of teams really only have one result being used. 60% stats, 40% preseason filler.
Week 3
* South Carolina (+7) vs LSU (50.5) : LSU 29 - South Carolina 28
* Florida (+4) vs Texas A&M (47.5) : Texas A&M 29 - Florida 25
* Kentucky (+24) vs Georgia (45.5) : Georgia 34 - Kentucky 17
* Wisconsin (+16) vs Alabama (51.5) : Alabama 28 - Wisconsin 14
* Wake Forest (+23) vs Ole Miss (63.5) : Ole Miss 40 - Wake Forest 18
* Missouri (-17) vs Boston College (53.5) : Missouri 35 - Boston College 12
* Arkansas (-24.5) vs UAB (60.5) : Arkansas 42 - UAB 19
* Auburn (-28) vs New Mexico (61.5) : Auburn 43 - New Mexico 12
* Tennessee (-49) vs Kent State (62.5) : Tennessee 52 - Kent State 7
* Texas (-35) vs UTSA (53.5) : Texas 47 - UTSA 10
* Oklahoma (-14) vs Tulane (47.5) : Oklahoma 32 - Tulane 17
* Georgia State (+10.5) vs Vanderbilt (46.5) : Vanderbilt 31 - Georgia State 29
* Mississippi State (-11.5) vs Toledo (59.5) : Mississippi State 24 - Toledo 20
Week 3
* South Carolina (+7) vs LSU (50.5) : LSU 29 - South Carolina 28
* Florida (+4) vs Texas A&M (47.5) : Texas A&M 29 - Florida 25
* Kentucky (+24) vs Georgia (45.5) : Georgia 34 - Kentucky 17
* Wisconsin (+16) vs Alabama (51.5) : Alabama 28 - Wisconsin 14
* Wake Forest (+23) vs Ole Miss (63.5) : Ole Miss 40 - Wake Forest 18
* Missouri (-17) vs Boston College (53.5) : Missouri 35 - Boston College 12
* Arkansas (-24.5) vs UAB (60.5) : Arkansas 42 - UAB 19
* Auburn (-28) vs New Mexico (61.5) : Auburn 43 - New Mexico 12
* Tennessee (-49) vs Kent State (62.5) : Tennessee 52 - Kent State 7
* Texas (-35) vs UTSA (53.5) : Texas 47 - UTSA 10
* Oklahoma (-14) vs Tulane (47.5) : Oklahoma 32 - Tulane 17
* Georgia State (+10.5) vs Vanderbilt (46.5) : Vanderbilt 31 - Georgia State 29
* Mississippi State (-11.5) vs Toledo (59.5) : Mississippi State 24 - Toledo 20
13
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Vandy at Georgia State is almost as weird as Mizzou at UMASS.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Iowa is better at one thing than the other.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:53 pm to jamespatterson
mizzou a well balanced top ten team again. who woulda thunk it?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:59 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Damn, am I reading this right that your model has Ohio St as the best defense by far?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 4:05 pm to diddlydawg7
quote:
Damn, am I reading this right that your model has Ohio St as the best defense by far?
Almost exclusively due to their preseason numbers, which had them as the preseason #1 on defense in almost all the metric sites due to what they brought back combined with their performance last year.
They've also only given up 6 pts & 260 yards total through 8 quarters so far (WMU had 99 total yards and 0 pts), but of course they've played Western Michigan and Akron. Even though there is a opponent adjustment, it needs some "good" teams sprinkled in at some point to really get working.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 4:07 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Vandy 98
Virginia Tech 35
List is shite
Virginia Tech 35
List is shite
Posted on 9/10/24 at 4:36 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Vandy 98? You ever been pimp slapped by a Commodore? Cause this is how that happens.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 12:12 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Bumped for TA
Posted on 9/12/24 at 12:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
INJECT THIS shite RIGHT IN MUH VEINS
Posted on 9/12/24 at 12:38 pm to SummerOfGeorge
That's a lot of work, but you could reduce the data load and probably make it more useful. Throw out games with G5 teams too. Sure, there are a handful of decent G5 teams, and yes one of them will be selected to get murdered in the playoffs. But most P4 vs G5 games are not competitive, even when the p4 teams choose to play backups early. Some P4 teams choose not to run up the score, others pad their stats. Overall it muddies the data, IMO.
And, yes, plenty of P4 vs P4 teams will be blowouts too, but I believe that overall P4 vs P4 are much more competitive than P4 vs G5, especially if you could account for games where the backups play early.
And, yes, plenty of P4 vs P4 teams will be blowouts too, but I believe that overall P4 vs P4 are much more competitive than P4 vs G5, especially if you could account for games where the backups play early.
This post was edited on 9/12/24 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 9/12/24 at 12:49 pm to SummerOfGeorge
This is weighing preseason rankings and teams that dominated bad teams way too much. This isn’t very reliable.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 12:52 pm to SummerOfGeorge
What does it say about Memphis at FSU?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 12:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
* South Carolina (+7) vs LSU (50.5) : LSU 29 - South Carolina 28
I have LSU in a close game that goes over the number. I actually think this will be a fun game to watch just because of how unpredictable I expect it to be, with momentum swing after momentum swing.
quote:
* Florida (+4) vs Texas A&M (47.5) : Texas A&M 29 - Florida 25
I don't like this spread at all but I see the final being 20-13, 20-17 or somewhere in that vicinity.
quote:
* Kentucky (+24) vs Georgia (45.5) : Georgia 34 - Kentucky 17
I have the Dawgs BIG. I don't know if UK will score and, if they do, I don't expect it to be much.
quote:
* Wake Forest (+23) vs Ole Miss (63.5) : Ole Miss 40 - Wake Forest 18
I'm not sure what to think about this one. I'll probably stay away since we have been so untested thus far. Wake has a very experienced QB too.
quote:
* Missouri (-17) vs Boston College (53.5) : Missouri 35 - Boston College 12
Gimme BC and the under. Mizzou will win and be in control of the game, but BC will shorten it so dadgum much I don't think they'll cover.
quote:
* Arkansas (-24.5) vs UAB (60.5) : Arkansas 42 - UAB 19
Hawgs. Big.
quote:
* Auburn (-28) vs New Mexico (61.5) : Auburn 43 - New Mexico 12
Auburn and the under. Auburn won't need to pass.
quote:
* Tennessee (-49) vs Kent State (62.5) : Tennessee 52 - Kent State 7
I will stay away from this one. Just not sure how to pick it well.
quote:
* Texas (-35) vs UTSA (53.5) : Texas 47 - UTSA 10
I really, really wanna pick the Roadrunners here. But I'd pick the over before picking anything else.
quote:
Oklahoma (-14) vs Tulane (47.5) : Oklahoma 32 - Tulane 17
OU will cover late and the over will hit.
quote:
* Georgia State (+10.5) vs Vanderbilt (46.5) : Vanderbilt 31 - Georgia State 29
Vandy is going to roll.
quote:
* Mississippi State (-11.5) vs Toledo (59.5) : Mississippi State 24 - Toledo 20
Don't sleep on Toledo. They've been great in close games over the past few seasons. But I expect a late cover from the Dawgs and the over to hit.
Can you also run some other major national games of interest in your model? These games being:
Arizona at K-State
Oregon at Oregon State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Washington at Washington State
West Virginia at Pitt
Utah at Utah State (note the injury to Cam Rising)
Posted on 9/12/24 at 1:04 pm to Tornado Alley
Are you BM?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 1:06 pm to HottyToddy7
quote:
Are you BM?
No. I am not BM. But I took one this morning after my coffee.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 1:08 pm to HottyToddy7
I can confirm that TA is not a bowel movement.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 1:10 pm to DownSouthJukin
quote:
I can confirm that TA is not a bowel movement.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 1:12 pm to Tornado Alley
Posted on 9/13/24 at 1:00 pm to DownSouthJukin
Bump
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News