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re: SOGa+ Rankings post-Week 2 and Week 3 picks
Posted on 9/13/24 at 1:04 pm to HottyToddy7
Posted on 9/13/24 at 1:04 pm to HottyToddy7
quote:
This is weighing preseason rankings and teams that dominated bad teams way too much. This isn’t very reliable.
There really isn't another way to do it this early in the season. You can't pick and choose when to weigh various inputs by who the team is.
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Posted on 9/13/24 at 1:06 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
That's a lot of work, but you could reduce the data load and probably make it more useful. Throw out games with G5 teams too. Sure, there are a handful of decent G5 teams, and yes one of them will be selected to get murdered in the playoffs. But most P4 vs G5 games are not competitive, even when the p4 teams choose to play backups early. Some P4 teams choose not to run up the score, others pad their stats. Overall it muddies the data, IMO.
Stats don't include non-garbage time, so running it up doesn't do much. The level of "non-competitive" is very different between UGA and Minnesota.
But, inherently, early season stuff is just going to be very thin because there is a lack of sample size and a big lack of sample size with games between "big" schools. That's why you have to rely on preseason stuff quite a bit, and why it takes a few weeks for teams outperforming their expectation to catch up.
Posted on 9/13/24 at 1:08 pm to Tornado Alley
quote:
Tornado Alley
I agree with most of your picks TA. Don't think A&M/Florida is high, think Georgia beats Kentucky like 31-3, think BC is underrated due to preseason stuff (same with Vandy).
Kent State/Tennessee is interesting only because of how bad Kent State is. Connelly has them ranked behind multiple D2 teams and like 30 FCS teams. They are egregiously terrible.
Posted on 9/13/24 at 1:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
How much does the preseason filler decrease each week? I'm guessing 20%?
Posted on 9/13/24 at 1:12 pm to Tornado Alley
quote:
Can you also run some other major national games of interest in your model? These games being:
Arizona at K-State
Oregon at Oregon State
Notre Dame at Purdue
Washington at Washington State
West Virginia at Pitt
Utah at Utah State (note the injury to Cam Rising)
quote:
Memphis florida State?
Kansas State 38 - Arizona 37
Oregon 33 - Oregon State 22
Notre Dame 32 - Purdue 14
Washington 36 - Wazzu 25 (don't like this)
Pitt 29 - West Virginia 23
Utah 39 - Utah St 16 (includes Rising, can't really remove him)
Memphis 31 - Florida State 30
Posted on 9/13/24 at 1:13 pm to DylanSampson4Heisman
quote:
How much does the preseason filler decrease each week? I'm guessing 20%?
I think preseason as a % of total goes
Week 1 - 100%
Week 2 - 70%
Week 3 - 40%
Week 4 - 20%
Week 5 - 0%
This post was edited on 9/13/24 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 9/13/24 at 1:44 pm to HottyToddy7
quote:
teams that dominated bad teams
quote:
HottyToddy7
Posted on 9/13/24 at 3:08 pm to SummerOfGeorge
So if you haven’t punted yet and have outscored your opponents 128-3 how is special teams being included in the overall a good thing?
Posted on 9/13/24 at 3:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Oh boy - that Memphis - FSU game has disaster written all over it 
Posted on 9/16/24 at 10:43 am to Tornado Alley
Following up on my picks in your thread:
W, 1-0
L, 1-1
L, 1-2
Wx2, 3-2
L, 3-3
W, L, 4-4
W, 5-4
Wx2, 7-4
L, 7-5
Lx2, 7-7
quote:
I have LSU in a close game that goes over the number.
W, 1-0
quote:
I don't like this spread at all but I see the final being 20-13, 20-17 or somewhere in that vicinity.
L, 1-1
quote:
I have the Dawgs BIG. I don't know if UK will score and, if they do, I don't expect it to be much.
L, 1-2
quote:
Gimme BC and the under. Mizzou will win and be in control of the game, but BC will shorten it so dadgum much I don't think they'll cover.
Wx2, 3-2
quote:
Hawgs. Big.
L, 3-3
quote:
Auburn and the under. Auburn won't need to pass.
W, L, 4-4
quote:
I really, really wanna pick the Roadrunners here. But I'd pick the over before picking anything else.
W, 5-4
quote:
OU will cover late and the over will hit.
Wx2, 7-4
quote:
Vandy is going to roll.
L, 7-5
quote:
Don't sleep on Toledo. They've been great in close games over the past few seasons. But I expect a late cover from the Dawgs and the over to hit.
Lx2, 7-7
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