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re: SEC Baseball Talk: Top 16 National Seeds & SEC Teams in NCAAt
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:11 pm to Captain Falcon
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:11 pm to Captain Falcon
quote:
State hosts if they sweep Mizzou or win 2/3 and then win a game or two in Hoover
outside very unique circumstances, how you do in Hoover has basically no effect on any of that
1
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:12 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Worse record
Worse RPI
Lost H2H
Try again.
It's all about how you play down the stretch. UGA is on fire, and A&M is struggling against the teams with the worst records in the west. Leave it in the committee's hands and it isn't going to go A&M's way. Never does. A&M has to hold serve at home, or they don't deserve a T8 seed. Lose to Arkansas and you finish possibly behind MSU in the West.
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:14 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
Speaking of that...the issue aTm has this weekend is that to remain top 8, aTm needs to 100% win the series against Arkansas. That can help negate a couple of bad looking series losses. Lost to Arkansas and there may not be a top 8 seed.
I think 1 win probably does that, but two would likely lock in a top 4 seed.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:16 pm to lsufball19
quote:
This hasn't been talked about enough. If Florida loses the series this weekend, they have to win their first game in the SECT or they'd be ineligible for the NCAAT. They were in a similar boat in 2013. They finished the season at 29-28 and got a bid because of their RPI
If they enter Hoover at .500 overall, they will need at least THREE wins in Hoover. 1-2 or 2-2 would still make them ineligible due to their record.
I think it was 2011 Georgia that had a similar scenario, they had to win 3+ games to qualify for the NCAAT due to their record, and they amazingly did.
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 2:17 pm
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:17 pm to Captain Falcon
state will host if they just beat mizzou. they have a big time atmosphere and ticket sales/tv ratings has alot to do with it. also has alot to do with the potential super regional matchups thats why correctly picking 1-16 in order is so hard. the softball committee just reiterated that when they basically flipped bama and A&M so they could get a TN/Bama and UT/A&M matchup.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:18 pm to lsufball19
quote:
outside very unique circumstances, how you do in Hoover has basically no effect on any of that
The host bubble is pretty tight this year. And a loss to Mizzou could drop State’s RPI back into the 20’s which might be an issue. They may need a win or two in Hoover to prop it back up.
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:20 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
I think 1 win probably does that, but two would likely lock in a top 4 seed.
aTm would need a sweep to be top 4.
Three other teams would finish in the top 3 of the league is aTm loses a game to Arkansas.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:21 pm to Captain Falcon
quote:
If they enter Hoover at .500 overall, they will need at least THREE wins in Hoover. 1-2 or 2-2 would still make them ineligible due to their record.
you're right. I didn't think deep enough into what they need to do. Yeah, they're kind of fricked if they lose their series this weekend. Wouldn't it be wild if the champion and runner up from the CWS last year were sitting at home one year later for the tournament. College baseball is a different world now
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:31 pm to Hawgeye
quote:A&M is fighting to get a lower T8 seed at this point, and they have nobody to blame but themselves. They and UGA will fight it out for a T8 seed, and if A&M loses to Arkansas at home, they will lose out on T8 as well.
Three other teams would finish in the top 3 of the league is aTm loses a game to Arkansas.
One win doesn't cut it when you lose your last three series, including two to the bottom feeders of the conference this year. Include Florida, and you are talking about three of the worst "records" in the SEC. Not Missouri or Auburn, but not far from it either.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:32 pm to lsufball19
If LSU doesn't make the NCAA tournament, is that 4 SEC teams in a row who won the CWS and failed to play in the tournament the following year?
Yeah, I know 2020 Vandy didn't get a chance, but it helps my narrative, so I'm sticking with it.
Yeah, I know 2020 Vandy didn't get a chance, but it helps my narrative, so I'm sticking with it.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:33 pm to lsufball19
My Top 16 (without too much analysis)
1 Kentucky
16 Indiana State
2 Tennessee
15 Alabama
3 Clemson
14 South Carolina
4 Arkansas
13 Oklahoma State
5 Texas A&M
12 Wake Forest
6 Oklahoma
11 Florida State
7 North Carolina
10 Oregon State
8 Virginia
9 Georgia
1 Kentucky
16 Indiana State
2 Tennessee
15 Alabama
3 Clemson
14 South Carolina
4 Arkansas
13 Oklahoma State
5 Texas A&M
12 Wake Forest
6 Oklahoma
11 Florida State
7 North Carolina
10 Oregon State
8 Virginia
9 Georgia
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:34 pm to BigBro
A&M paired with WF would be absolutely brutal for A&M. Sounds about right when I think what the committee would do.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:35 pm to BhamTigah
quote:
is that 4 SEC teams in a row who won the CWS and failed to play in the tournament the following year?
3. Vandy won the CWS and finished runner-up at the CWS the next year. (there was no tournament in 2020, so I guess maybe you're technically right
) quote:
Yeah, I know 2020 Vandy didn't get a chance, but it helps my narrative, so I'm sticking with it.
didn't see this when I first read your post
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 2:36 pm
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:37 pm to Hawgeye
quote:
aTm would need a sweep to be top 4.
Three other teams would finish in the top 3 of the league is aTm loses a game to Arkansas.
SEC Standings only go so far.
Last year UK finished behind Auburn and South Carolina yet got a higher seed.
Two years ago Auburn finished behind Arkansas and Lsu in the west and got a host site over both.
Three years ago Vandy got seeded over MSU with a worse SEC record.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:40 pm to Farmer1906
Who of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas do you think you should be seeded over and why?
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:41 pm to Hawgeye
It makes you wonder how good South Carolina, Alabama, and Ole Miss would look had they been in any other conference.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:47 pm to Farmer1906
Farmer,
You and I can argue this all day long. The fact is that right now A&M has lost to (record-wise) three of the worst teams in the SEC. Lose to Arkansas at home, and that would mean an absolutely terrible finish. If UGA wasn't playing well, I would agree A&M squeaks into the T8 even with a loss to Arkansas.
But UGA is primed to take A&M's T8 sport and would deserve it. The fact of the matter is that A&M cannot complain about being left out of the top eight because they played themselves out of "lock" status - it is their fault for sucking it up down the stretch. There won't be more than four SEC supers and I would argue that Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky have three of them locked up. If I have to compare A&M and UGA as a third party and A&M loses to Arkansas at home? Too close to call ...
You and I can argue this all day long. The fact is that right now A&M has lost to (record-wise) three of the worst teams in the SEC. Lose to Arkansas at home, and that would mean an absolutely terrible finish. If UGA wasn't playing well, I would agree A&M squeaks into the T8 even with a loss to Arkansas.
But UGA is primed to take A&M's T8 sport and would deserve it. The fact of the matter is that A&M cannot complain about being left out of the top eight because they played themselves out of "lock" status - it is their fault for sucking it up down the stretch. There won't be more than four SEC supers and I would argue that Tennessee, Arkansas, and Kentucky have three of them locked up. If I have to compare A&M and UGA as a third party and A&M loses to Arkansas at home? Too close to call ...
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:48 pm to BluegrassBelle
quote:
Who of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas do you think you should be seeded over and why?
UK one because they're going to win the SEC and have the #1 RPI.
If Arkansas wins this weekend, they get #2. If they lose then probably UT. A&M probably jumps Arkansas with a series win. Unsure if they'd jump UT.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:51 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
SEC Standings only go so far.
aTm has lost series to Florida, LSU, and Ole Miss.
It’s one thing to just simply not sweep a mediocre to bad opponent, but aTm lost all those series to teams that are a combined 33-49 in SEC play.
Two of those series losses have been in consecutive weeks the last two weeks.
quote:
Last year UK finished behind Auburn and South Carolina yet got a higher seed.
Kentucky had a too 4 RPI and had the same amount of SEC wins as South Carolina. Auburn had an RPI of #29.
quote:
Two years ago Auburn finished behind Arkansas and Lsu in the west and got a host site over both.
Auburn had a top 6 RPI. Arkansas had an RPI of 14 and LSU 17.
Those are quite the RPI differences which justify the choice for hosts.
This season, the SEC top 8 contenders are all lumped close in RPI.
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:52 pm to Farmer1906
A&M will not jump Arkansas. I think Arkansas is basically lock status at this point. A&M has played terribly down the stretch. It isn't long ago that we spoke of A&M in the T4. Now that just isn't going to happen unless they beat Arkansas comfortably. Maybe not even then.
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