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2024 SEC Schedule Difficulty
Posted on 1/15/24 at 10:39 am
Posted on 1/15/24 at 10:39 am
I came up with the calculation below to try and figure out how the SEC office determined the schedule for 2024. Take a look and let me know what you think.
They didn't have complete 2023 data when they determined the schedule, so that would definitely change the numbers.
I don't think we will play the 2025 schedule as it is constructed, just thought it was interesting to look at the differences between the 2 years if we do play it that way.
Thoughts? Ideas to improve the analysis?
They didn't have complete 2023 data when they determined the schedule, so that would definitely change the numbers.
I don't think we will play the 2025 schedule as it is constructed, just thought it was interesting to look at the differences between the 2 years if we do play it that way.
Thoughts? Ideas to improve the analysis?
13
Posted on 1/15/24 at 10:42 am to BigBro
Posted on 1/15/24 at 10:46 am to BigBro
I’m general, the former East teams will be playing harder schedules than they have in the past, former West teams will be playing easier schedules, which is about what I expected, since the West has been the better division for some years now.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 10:47 am to BigBro
That looks like it took some time to put together. For that I commend you.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 10:58 am to TeddyWestside
quote:
I’m general, the former East teams will be playing harder schedules than they have in the past, former West teams will be playing easier schedules, which is about what I expected, since the West has been the better division for some years now.
In general, I agree. Georgia also has the benefit of not playing Georgia at all. Same for Alabama. For most teams, the difference comes down to when you play Georgia, Alabama, Vanderbilt & Arkansas. The other 10 teams are at least in the same ballpark. LSU, Florida & A&M are a little bit better than the other 7 though.
Georgia 37
Alabama 37
LSU 27
Florida 24
Texas A&M 23
Kentucky 20
Tennessee 20
Auburn 19
Missouri 18
Miss State 18
Ole Miss 17
S Carolina 16
Arkansas 10
Vanderbilt 6
Texas A&M doesn't play Georgia or Alabama next year, and they do play Arkansas, so that is why they are on the bottom of the list.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 11:00 am to BigBro
This is the kinda autism we need around here, great work 
Posted on 1/15/24 at 11:22 am to BigBro
You need to assign some kind of number to Texas and Oklahoma or it will skew it. Both Texas and Oklahoma are above average, but you are essentially giving teams that play them zero credit for playing them. A team that plays Texas and/or Oklahoma will have a much easier looking schedule than if you substituted MIssissippi State for Oklahoma and A&M for Texas. Even though OK and TX are tougher games. Just use Big 12 wins for them. Yes it is apples to oranges. But it is better than apples to nothing.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 11:23 am to BigBro
I see what you're saying.
Georgia plays (based on cumulative conference records of opponents) the third toughest schedule in 2024; then plays the easiest in 2025.
A&M does the inverse, playing the second easiest schedule in 2024 and then playing the toughest in 2025.
It'd be interesting to see if 2023 had been able to play a part in the schedules, how much it would've impacted these.
Georgia plays (based on cumulative conference records of opponents) the third toughest schedule in 2024; then plays the easiest in 2025.
A&M does the inverse, playing the second easiest schedule in 2024 and then playing the toughest in 2025.
It'd be interesting to see if 2023 had been able to play a part in the schedules, how much it would've impacted these.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 11:26 am to BigBro
quote:
BigBro
Posted on 1/15/24 at 12:06 pm to captdalton
quote:
You need to assign some kind of number to Texas and Oklahoma or it will skew it. Both Texas and Oklahoma are above average, but you are essentially giving teams that play them zero credit for playing them. A team that plays Texas and/or Oklahoma will have a much easier looking schedule than if you substituted MIssissippi State for Oklahoma and A&M for Texas. Even though OK and TX are tougher games. Just use Big 12 wins for them. Yes it is apples to oranges. But it is better than apples to nothing.
Every team plays the following schedule.
1 of TX or OU
3 of AL, AUB, FL, GA, LSU, A&M
4 of TN, V, SC, KY, Ole Miss, State, Ark, Miz
Texas & Oklahoma both have 23 Big 12 wins from 2020 to 2023. If I used the same time period 2018 to 2022, it is 32 OU 26 TX, but that includes different coaches and they aren't SEC games, but everyone just plays one or the other.
This post was edited on 1/15/24 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 1/15/24 at 12:21 pm to skrayper
quote:
It'd be interesting to see if 2023 had been able to play a part in the schedules, how much it would've impacted these.
Using 2021-2023 (since Covid was a weird year)
XXX ++ TM ++ 24 25
24 +++ OU ++ 96 72
22 +++ GA ++ 87 65
15 +++ AL ++ 85 70
14 +++ FL ++ 99 85
10 +++ TN ++ 83 73
09 +++ OM ++ 85 76
09 +++ MS ++ 92 83
05 +++ SC ++ 87 82
02 +++ VA ++ 91 89
-3 +++ KY ++ 82 85
-4 +++ AR ++ 84 88
-5 +++ AU ++ 88 93
-13 ++ LS ++ 75 88
-24 ++ TX ++ 72 96
-28 ++ MO ++ 68 96
-33 ++ AG ++ 70 103
Not exactly the same, but pretty similar.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 12:22 pm to BigBro
All I know is that Texas has been given the easiest.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 12:30 pm to JetDawg
quote:
All I know is that Texas has been given the easiest.
Based on your opinion of 2024 teams?
5 year record 2018-2022 math says you are wrong
3 year record 2021-2023 math says you are wrong, but it is closer
So the eyeball test?
A&M doesn't play Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss or Tennessee. Texas plays 2 of those teams.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 12:32 pm to BigBro
Interesting stuff OP. I guess it's all subjective since we don't know how teams will pan out during the season, but still, fun analysis.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 12:43 pm to BigBro
Apparently the SEC totaled wins/losses since 2012 and gave the better teams harder schedules and worse teams easier schedules.
Bad timing for State. Our consistency of a little better than average (6th in the SEC) from 2012 is biting us with a difficult schedule when we are now rebuilding.
Teams that had poor records for years but are now doing well are getting easier than they should schedules.
Hopefully the SEC will make adjustments for 2025.
Bad timing for State. Our consistency of a little better than average (6th in the SEC) from 2012 is biting us with a difficult schedule when we are now rebuilding.
Teams that had poor records for years but are now doing well are getting easier than they should schedules.
Hopefully the SEC will make adjustments for 2025.
This post was edited on 1/15/24 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 1/15/24 at 12:49 pm to BigBro
Where's the 2025 schedule you talk about?
I think 2025 will be bumped to 9 conference games.
I think 2025 will be bumped to 9 conference games.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 12:55 pm to BigBro
I'll wait for SummerOfGeorge's calculations, but thanks.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 12:55 pm to BigBro
quote:
Based on your opinion of 2024 teams?
5 year record 2018-2022 math says you are wrong
3 year record 2021-2023 math says you are wrong, but it is closer
So the eyeball test?
A&M doesn't play Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss or Tennessee. Texas plays 2 of those teams.
I think it's more of the teams expected to compete, Texas has the easiest path.
If, say, Vandy or Arkansas had a tougher schedule than Texas, then that's irrelevant (though a bit unfair to Vandy and Arkansas, as they have it rough enough already).
OTOH, if Texas has an easier schedule than Georgia, Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss then that's a bigger deal because those are the teams most likely to be competing along with Texas for the conference championship.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 1:54 pm to skrayper
At the current ESPN/ABC $$$ rate, 2025 will be an 8-game schedule just like 2024.
The whole point of adding Texass and OU was to get each SEC school MORE $$$ than what Sankey negociated Disney for. That did not happen as ALL the extra Texass/OU $$$ goes to give Texass/OU an equal share to what everyone else will get.
So, the ONLY way to get more $$$ out of Disney et al is to limit (to 8) how many SEC games we play each year.
No way the SEC should vote to go to 9 games UNLESS Disney offers each school more money.
The whole point of adding Texass and OU was to get each SEC school MORE $$$ than what Sankey negociated Disney for. That did not happen as ALL the extra Texass/OU $$$ goes to give Texass/OU an equal share to what everyone else will get.
So, the ONLY way to get more $$$ out of Disney et al is to limit (to 8) how many SEC games we play each year.
No way the SEC should vote to go to 9 games UNLESS Disney offers each school more money.
Posted on 1/15/24 at 2:05 pm to BigBro
Where did you get the '25 schedules??? Made them up or something??
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