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Analytics?
Posted on 11/25/22 at 6:40 am
Posted on 11/25/22 at 6:40 am
I know you need to “go for it” sometimes on 4th and short, but football has less situational data than baseball so I think “analytics” is overrated in football.
First half:
To me, in a scoreless game take the points with the FG.
If a FG only puts you up the same number of scores, line up and go for it IF you get a look that will likely result in making the yardage.
Late half, take FG.
Second half:
If it’s late and you are down, you often must go for it. That’s reality, not analytics.
In early to mid 3rd Q, up 14, kicking FG puts you up 3 scores.
I just don’t think some guy with a notebook running up to coach and saying “go for it” is why successful FB coaches get paid so much money.
First half:
To me, in a scoreless game take the points with the FG.
If a FG only puts you up the same number of scores, line up and go for it IF you get a look that will likely result in making the yardage.
Late half, take FG.
Second half:
If it’s late and you are down, you often must go for it. That’s reality, not analytics.
In early to mid 3rd Q, up 14, kicking FG puts you up 3 scores.
I just don’t think some guy with a notebook running up to coach and saying “go for it” is why successful FB coaches get paid so much money.
6
Posted on 11/25/22 at 6:43 am to makersmark1
Well, you "think" is not doing a statistical analysis. If you want to compare how going for it on 4th down has a negative effect on outcomes, then you need to compare how going for it has a positive effect on outcomes.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 6:45 am to makersmark1
I think coaches have always wanted to go on 4th and whatever throughout their career. Now they can by saying “analytics” was the reason.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 6:47 am to RockyMtnTigerWDE
Are we questioning Lane before he even gets here?
That is not good relationship advice.
That is not good relationship advice.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 6:50 am to LanierSpots
What relationship?
Lane is a coach of a division rival.
Lane is a coach of a division rival.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 6:57 am to RockyMtnTigerWDE
quote:
What relationship?
Lane is a coach of a division rival.
Auburn and Lane could be a match made in hell
Today could be a big day. Hopefully, we may know some info either way.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 7:18 am to makersmark1
So whats the analytics on he who scores 1st vs he who ultimately wins?
(whether FG or TD)
(whether FG or TD)
Posted on 11/25/22 at 7:19 am to makersmark1
Analytics says what the likelihood of actions/plays have for being successful given time in the game and score with remaining time considered.
To me, there are two other functions it should be doing. Football has aspects that are nebulous - and require tempering in addition to any analysis.
1. "Comparison" of multiple choices within the analysis. The relative strength of choice must be SIGNIFICANTLY more advantageous than the alternative choices.
2. Football wisdom/conditions should always be based on the decades of knowing how the game works and how the best coaches have always considered these coaching "rules". You don't go for first downs - of longer yards to gain - early. Instead early you play the opposite - field position. Punt...
Later this changes as game changes
Football "wisdom" doesn't go away until desperate conditions or approaching halftime
Give me a choice - a RANGE of choices
and ALWAYS use it like cruise control - OVER RIDE available at the tapping of the brakes
To me, there are two other functions it should be doing. Football has aspects that are nebulous - and require tempering in addition to any analysis.
1. "Comparison" of multiple choices within the analysis. The relative strength of choice must be SIGNIFICANTLY more advantageous than the alternative choices.
2. Football wisdom/conditions should always be based on the decades of knowing how the game works and how the best coaches have always considered these coaching "rules". You don't go for first downs - of longer yards to gain - early. Instead early you play the opposite - field position. Punt...
Later this changes as game changes
Football "wisdom" doesn't go away until desperate conditions or approaching halftime
Give me a choice - a RANGE of choices
and ALWAYS use it like cruise control - OVER RIDE available at the tapping of the brakes
This post was edited on 11/25/22 at 7:34 am
Posted on 11/25/22 at 7:25 am to JJJimmyJimJames
quote:
To me, there are two other functions it should be doing.
1. "Comparison" of multiple choices within the analysis.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 7:36 am to LanierSpots
I am an analyst/math modeler - have been for decades
I also played
I also played
This post was edited on 11/25/22 at 7:38 am
Posted on 11/25/22 at 7:46 am to JJJimmyJimJames
quote:
I am an analyst
I've tried but my wife isn't a fan.
This post was edited on 11/25/22 at 8:20 am
Posted on 11/25/22 at 8:06 am to slacker130
Posted on 11/25/22 at 8:10 am to slacker130
I’m just saying IF it’s fourth and 1, and they go Bear front and your call is QB sneak, that may not have the same success as Another play against that look.
In baseball, it is more pitcher versus batter.
In football, there are a lot more variables, and one loss can wreck a 12 game season compared to a 162 game slate.
Going for it is sometimes necessary. Going for it when it has an element of surprise is good too. Going for short yardage when you are better upfront seems reasonable, but if they are better upfront, trying QB sneak with box packed seems “analytically” wrong.
In baseball, it is more pitcher versus batter.
In football, there are a lot more variables, and one loss can wreck a 12 game season compared to a 162 game slate.
Going for it is sometimes necessary. Going for it when it has an element of surprise is good too. Going for short yardage when you are better upfront seems reasonable, but if they are better upfront, trying QB sneak with box packed seems “analytically” wrong.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 8:14 am to makersmark1
Gut + experience > analytics
Posted on 11/25/22 at 8:21 am to wareaglepete
quote:
Gut + experience > analytics
I agree.
Seems like for analytics to work, you'd have to follow them 100% of the time as well.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 8:27 am to slacker130
quote:
I've tried
Not my jam
Just saying
Posted on 11/25/22 at 8:30 am to LanierSpots
Well, jamming was your first mistake.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 8:32 am to aubiecat
Hah!
Posted on 11/25/22 at 9:32 am to makersmark1
quote:
so I think “analytics” is overrated in football.
Analytics are just very useful data points to make smart informed decisions. Any coach who makes decisions exclusively because "analytics say so" doesn't understand analytics
Sophisticated analytics use in football such as Baltimore Ravens etc specifically practice situations and how to process analytics in real time to make great decisions.
Posted on 11/25/22 at 10:21 am to makersmark1
Analytics are a tool and should be used as such. As more coaches use the “analytics” the data behind 4th down conversions (and other stuff) will become more robust and reliable, and shift the conversion percentages from what they currently are to a truer value.
On the other hand you still have to go with your gut at times and consider momentum, confidence in team/certain players, etc. This is just a judgement call which everyone has to do in their jobs and basically boils down to “can I live with this decision if it fails?”
I’m glad more coaches are using data to back up their decision making, and the greatest coaches know how to use it correctly.
On the other hand you still have to go with your gut at times and consider momentum, confidence in team/certain players, etc. This is just a judgement call which everyone has to do in their jobs and basically boils down to “can I live with this decision if it fails?”
I’m glad more coaches are using data to back up their decision making, and the greatest coaches know how to use it correctly.
This post was edited on 11/25/22 at 10:22 am
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