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Analytics model projects 9 wins

Posted on 8/29/22 at 10:05 pm
Posted by Jack Ruby
Member since Apr 2014
26397 posts
Posted on 8/29/22 at 10:05 pm


Just reviewed an analytics model that I subscribe to.

Model accounts for coaching staffs. home/away field, and roster talent.

SEC rosters with the better talent wins 70% of league games.


Pre-season projections:

Losses to LSU, Bama, and Aggy.

Alabama and Ole Miss games project to be extremely close.


Talent gap with Cincy (including home field) is about 25 spots.

For BYU, its about 40 spots.

Missouri State is about 110 spots.

Liberty is about 60 spots.


...

EDIT: MISREAD Model. NO loss to SCar.

I thought the Cocks game was in Columbia.

This post was edited on 8/30/22 at 11:28 am
Posted by Hawgnsincebirth55
Gods country
Member since Sep 2016
18165 posts
Posted on 8/29/22 at 10:17 pm to
So according to this model we lose to South Carolina but beat lsu and auburn? I’d think both of those schools have more *talent* on their roster than SC but I could be wrong
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
64589 posts
Posted on 8/29/22 at 10:17 pm to
quote:

Losses to S Carolina
Posted by Razorback Reverend
Member since Dec 2013
24005 posts
Posted on 8/29/22 at 11:26 pm to
Agreed.... and I have to ask. Is this a paid subscription?
Posted by boogiewoogie1978
Little Rock
Member since Aug 2012
19330 posts
Posted on 8/30/22 at 8:33 am to
quote:

Pre-season projections:

Losses to S Carolina, Bama, and Aggy.

Alabama and Ole Miss games project to be extremely close.

So we play Bama tight but get blown out by S. Carolina.
Posted by STLhog
Dallas, TX
Member since Jan 2015
18825 posts
Posted on 8/30/22 at 9:04 am to
Show me Samalytics.
Posted by FayetteNAM
Boston Mountains
Member since Jun 2013
8914 posts
Posted on 8/30/22 at 9:43 am to
What did this analytics site say our wins were last year?
Posted by dchog
Pea Ridge
Member since Nov 2012
26709 posts
Posted on 8/30/22 at 10:51 am to
LSU had 10 draft picks this year. Auburn and South Carolina had either close to the same amount or slightly more draft picks than Arkansas.
Posted by Jack Ruby
Member since Apr 2014
26397 posts
Posted on 8/30/22 at 10:52 am to
Didn't see last year's model.

This model also says Auburn is going to be awful this year because of all the coaching turnover and bad hires made by Harsin.


This post was edited on 8/30/22 at 11:05 am
Posted by sugatowng
Look at my bling Bitches
Member since Nov 2006
25557 posts
Posted on 8/30/22 at 11:10 am to
So we are losing to a 5 win USC team?
Posted by Jack Ruby
Member since Apr 2014
26397 posts
Posted on 8/30/22 at 11:29 am to
I fricked up. I thought the SCAR game was an away game and the model said the home team was going to win.


LSU is the third game we lose, according to the model, NOT GAMECOCKS.
This post was edited on 8/30/22 at 11:30 am
Posted by WonderWartHawg
Member since Dec 2010
10748 posts
Posted on 8/30/22 at 1:51 pm to
I really think we take LSU again this year.
Posted by dammitbert
Member since Aug 2016
719 posts
Posted on 8/30/22 at 9:53 pm to
Looks like shite is skewed towards LSU and Florida as per usual. No reason to believe either of those don't fight for last place in their division (sans Vandy)
Posted by Jack Ruby
Member since Apr 2014
26397 posts
Posted on 8/31/22 at 9:30 am to
Lsu still has boatloads of talent on its roster. That's the issue keeping them in the mix per the analytics.

As for Florida, kind of the same thing, plus they have a very good coaching staff, but their talent is not like LSU, but they play in the east... So they are better (roster wise) than everyone not named Georgia.

In the West, they'd probably be 4th or 5th.
Posted by Harry Rex Vonner
Foggy Bottom Law School
Member since Nov 2013
47286 posts
Posted on 8/31/22 at 12:17 pm to
did the analytics guys ever play football?
Posted by Harry Rex Vonner
Foggy Bottom Law School
Member since Nov 2013
47286 posts
Posted on 8/31/22 at 12:20 pm to
can you post profile pics of the analytics guys?


I'm betting they look like this


Posted by Harry Rex Vonner
Foggy Bottom Law School
Member since Nov 2013
47286 posts
Posted on 8/31/22 at 12:28 pm to
quote:

Lsu still has boatloads of talent on its roster.




according to who?
Posted by dchog
Pea Ridge
Member since Nov 2012
26709 posts
Posted on 8/31/22 at 1:07 pm to
Even when LSU is in the so called down years, they have more talent than Arkansas.
Posted by Harry Rex Vonner
Foggy Bottom Law School
Member since Nov 2013
47286 posts
Posted on 8/31/22 at 6:47 pm to
quote:

Even when LSU is in the so called down years, they have more talent than Arkansas.




according to who?
Posted by Jack Ruby
Member since Apr 2014
26397 posts
Posted on 8/31/22 at 7:18 pm to
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