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This Missouri team beat Alabama

Posted on 1/12/22 at 9:16 pm
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
90081 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 9:16 pm
What
The
frick
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Bayou Chico
Member since Feb 2009
56431 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 9:23 pm to
Yah Idk it seemed like they couldn't frickin miss against us.
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
52283 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 9:24 pm to
Alabama isn't good at basketball and hasn't been for a month. The wheels are coming off
Posted by RollTide4Ever
Nashville
Member since Nov 2006
19857 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 9:41 pm to
Road versus home
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66950 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 9:53 pm to
quote:

Road versus home

Way more than that.

It's basically Alabama is not a solid defensive team and if the other team starts hitting shots, we can't stop it.

Expect a lot of weird games this year from Alabama, fewer wins total than you hope for.
Posted by remaster916
Alabama
Member since Oct 2012
13042 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 10:00 pm to
It's Alabama basketball, what do you expect?

Alabama might have a good team every 10 years or so, but average most of the time.

Those 5 straight NCAA Tournaments Mark Gottfried got Bama too, might never be equaled again.
Posted by Cobrasize
Birmingham
Member since Jun 2013
49884 posts
Posted on 1/12/22 at 10:01 pm to
Yea, this isn’t a “road vs. home” thing. Anyone who says so is delusional and just flat out ignoring the facts
Posted by auisssa
Member since Feb 2010
4659 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 8:10 am to
CNO will have us in the tournament the next 4 years (assuming he stays)
Posted by hnds2th
Member since May 2019
3096 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 9:12 am to
How does the Missouri loss affect our ranking/seeding in the end?
Posted by CCTider
Member since Dec 2014
25136 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 9:17 am to
Badly. They aren't good.
Posted by Grievous Angel
Tuscaloosa, AL
Member since Dec 2008
10812 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 10:06 am to
I've worried about his offense being malzahn-esque. Meaning you take everyone by surprise but they adjust.

Will he adjust? Hope so. We certainly locked him up for a long time.

The thing I don't really get is the "3 pointer or layup and nothing in between" approach. Seems like that just cuts off a lot of the court that the defenders don't have to worry about? He says it's all analytics based. He certainly knows more than me.
Posted by DLev45
Member since Aug 2018
731 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 10:18 am to
quote:

The thing I don't really get is the "3 pointer or layup and nothing in between" approach. Seems like that just cuts off a lot of the court that the defenders don't have to worry about? He says it's all analytics based. He certainly knows more than me


It’s actually FTs > layups > 3’s. It’s all about efficiency.

If you shoot 70% as a team on FTs, 2 FTs is worth 1.4 points.

If you shoot 50% on 2’s, each 2 is worth 1 point.

If you shoot 33% on 3’s, each 3 is worth 1 point.

The thing with mid-range 2’s from an analytics perspective is that you don’t make them at a much higher rate than 3’s.

Even if you are 45%, which would be good, those shots are worth 0.9 points, which is less than the layup and the 3, AND you rarely draw a foul, which robs you of a chance at the MOST efficient shots - free throws.

Oats has said in the past that if someone could show him they could make 50% from mid-range, he would be all for it. But no one does.
This post was edited on 1/13/22 at 10:20 am
Posted by phil4bama
Emerald Coast of PCB
Member since Jul 2011
11868 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 11:07 am to
Then his teams ought to be deadly from the charity stripe. We've lost too many big games over the past 2 seasons due to poor FT shooting. If your own analytics show that it's the most productive part of the offense, players ought to be practicing them until they puke or can shoot at least 75% from the line. FT's are nothing more than repetition ad nauseum. And in Q's case, he should practice every one with 2 seconds on the clock and the scoreboard reading Bama down by 2.

I'm not knocking Oats, his system, or the guys, but if that analysis above is accurate, we've had too many games that come down to the FT line shooting and we've come up short.

Nate also emphasizes defense although that often gets overlooked because of his offense. And this year's team doesn't play it well for 40 minutes. They have flashes where they get after it and other times where a cardboard cutout would defend better. The results bear that out. I hope this team will round into form come March because they can beat anyone when they are on. But they haven't been on in a month.
Posted by DLev45
Member since Aug 2018
731 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 12:35 pm to
quote:

Then his teams ought to be deadly from the charity stripe. We've lost too many big games over the past 2 seasons due to poor FT shooting. If your own analytics show that it's the most productive part of the offense, players ought to be practicing them until they puke or can shoot at least 75% from the line. FT's are nothing more than repetition ad nauseum. And in Q's case, he should practice every one with 2 seconds on the clock and the scoreboard reading Bama down by 2.

I'm not knocking Oats, his system, or the guys, but if that analysis above is accurate, we've had too many games that come down to the FT line shooting and we've come up short.

Nate also emphasizes defense although that often gets overlooked because of his offense. And this year's team doesn't play it well for 40 minutes. They have flashes where they get after it and other times where a cardboard cutout would defend better. The results bear that out. I hope this team will round into form come March because they can beat anyone when they are on. But they haven't been on in a month.


I'm not saying that you're wrong, because we have undoubtedly lost games at the charity stripe, but you have to be REALLY bad (way worse than us) for FT's to not be the most efficient shot.

Even 60% as a team from the FT = 1.2 xP on a trip to the stripe. That's equal to 60% from 2pt, and 40% from 3pt.

As a team this year, we are 70.5% FT, and last year we were 70.8%.

We would need to shoot 70% from 2pt and 46.7% from 3pt to equal our FT xP.
This post was edited on 1/13/22 at 12:37 pm
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
28973 posts
Posted on 1/13/22 at 1:05 pm to
Aside from not being good defensively so far, Quinnerly, for example, is only hitting 25% from 3PT. He hit 43% last year. That's a huge drop-off.

Shackleford has gone from 38% to 34%. Ellis from 39% to 34%. You can't just throw up threes from wherever, whenever, just for the sake of analytics. And I'm not saying that's what's been happening, because I haven't watched that much. But they have to be good looks, shot in good rhythm.
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