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S&P+ Matchups - Orange Bowl : #1 Alabama vs #4 Oklahoma, comparative team (Arkansas, FYI)
Posted on 12/6/18 at 11:23 am
Posted on 12/6/18 at 11:23 am
Below is a comparison of Alabama and Oklahoma rankings per S&P+ for specific matchup areas. You can see all the stats at the links below.
S&P+ Team Profiles (click on individual team for profile)
S&P+ Team Profiles (click on individual team for profile)
This post was edited on 12/6/18 at 1:40 pm
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Posted on 12/6/18 at 11:26 am to SummerOfGeorge
George, why is there such a discrepancy in the SOS rankings between Sagarin and Connelly?
Posted on 12/6/18 at 11:26 am to SummerOfGeorge
Basically, Oklahoma's goal on defense is to get teams into 3rd and long and blitz with athletes. That is where their only semi-success comes from
#67 - Passing Downs
#53 - Passing Down Success Rate
Standard Down and Distance and 3rd and short/medium they are miserable
#95 - Standard Downs S&P+
#115 - Standard Down Sack Rate
#124 - 3rd and medium Success Rate
#121 - 3rd and short Success Rate
I mean, those are staggeringly bad numbers.
I'm guessing they are going to come out early and be aggressive, try to catch us on a few 1st and 2nd down blitzes and get lucky in 3rd and long 1 or 2 times. Obviously, that is going to leave a giant possibility out there for huge plays for us, but I think they know that we'll get huge plays if they just sit back anyway.
#67 - Passing Downs
#53 - Passing Down Success Rate
Standard Down and Distance and 3rd and short/medium they are miserable
#95 - Standard Downs S&P+
#115 - Standard Down Sack Rate
#124 - 3rd and medium Success Rate
#121 - 3rd and short Success Rate
I mean, those are staggeringly bad numbers.
I'm guessing they are going to come out early and be aggressive, try to catch us on a few 1st and 2nd down blitzes and get lucky in 3rd and long 1 or 2 times. Obviously, that is going to leave a giant possibility out there for huge plays for us, but I think they know that we'll get huge plays if they just sit back anyway.
This post was edited on 12/6/18 at 11:33 am
Posted on 12/6/18 at 11:27 am to Bham Bammer
quote:
George, why is there such a discrepancy in the SOS rankings between Sagarin and Connelly?
I truly don't know. I think, and this is only part of it, but I think part of it is Sagarin of course ranks all D1A and D1AA teams. We played some really bad D1A teams that rank down in the 130s and 140s. So, those teams pull our "average" way down. I'm guessing if you "averaged" the top 8 teams we played, Sagarin and Connelly would be pretty much the same. It's that lower half of the schedule where the difference comes in.
Posted on 12/6/18 at 12:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Oklahoma Offense rank:
3rd & Long Success Rate: #2
3rd & Medium Success Rate: #7
3rd & Short Success Rate: #105
That is crazy. Basically if teams get them to 3rd & 8 they're better off getting a 5-yard penalty and defending 3rd & 3 than they are trying to stop them on 3rd & 8.
3rd & Long Success Rate: #2
3rd & Medium Success Rate: #7
3rd & Short Success Rate: #105
That is crazy. Basically if teams get them to 3rd & 8 they're better off getting a 5-yard penalty and defending 3rd & 3 than they are trying to stop them on 3rd & 8.
Posted on 12/6/18 at 12:13 pm to TideCPA
quote:
That is crazy. Basically if teams get them to 3rd & 8 they're better off getting a 5-yard penalty and defending 3rd & 3 than they are trying to stop them on 3rd & 8.
LOLOLOLOL
Posted on 12/6/18 at 12:24 pm to TideCPA
That just seems odd to me! Like, how is it that they can get 8 yards, but struggle with 3?
Posted on 12/6/18 at 12:27 pm to ChoadieMcSmalls
quote:
That just seems odd to me! Like, how is it that they can get 8 yards, but struggle with 3?
Well, they can get 3, they're just worse relative to the rest of college football at it than they are at getting 5+ relative to the rest of cfb.
This post was edited on 12/6/18 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 12/6/18 at 12:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
How do these numbers compare to OU - Georgia stats last year?
Posted on 12/6/18 at 12:36 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
How do these numbers compare to OU - Georgia stats last year?
Not sure, but if I had to guess I'd say OU offense vs UA defense is probably pretty similar to last year's OU offense vs UGA defense.
Our offense is ranked higher than UGA's last year, and their defense is ranked worse than their defense last year.
This post was edited on 12/6/18 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 12/6/18 at 12:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
If that's true, I guess we had better seriously prepare for the Bama defense to give up 35+
Posted on 12/6/18 at 12:52 pm to East Coast Band
I can already picture Mack Wilson not getting off blocks and being a complete liability over the middle
Posted on 12/6/18 at 12:54 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
If that's true, I guess we had better seriously prepare for the Bama defense to give up 35+
We 100% should be prepared for that.
Posted on 12/6/18 at 1:05 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
If that's true, I guess we had better seriously prepare for the Bama defense to give up 35+
That's a pretty good bet IMO.
Posted on 12/6/18 at 1:08 pm to Bham Bammer
quote:
George, why is there such a discrepancy in the SOS rankings between Sagarin and Connelly?
I think Connelly's takes in to account what you would expect a team to do with that schedule, as in a team going undefeated with a shitty schedule will be higher than team that went 6-6 with a tough schedule.
Posted on 12/6/18 at 1:11 pm to RTR America
quote:
I think Connelly's takes in to account what you would expect a team to do with that schedule, as in a team going undefeated with a shitty schedule will be higher than team that went 6-6 with a tough schedule.
Correct, I was actually going to note that as the 2nd reason but forgot to add it.
Basically, Sagarin is measuring a team's resume. Connelly is measuring how good a team is. Those two things don't always come out the same.
This post was edited on 12/6/18 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 12/6/18 at 1:32 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Closest teams we have played so far in comparison to Oklahoma. I think overall the best overall/passing/rushing defense team is Arkansas.
I'm not sure we'll be quite as efficient as we were against Arkansas, but that is a pretty nice sign to see that the team they compare to by far the best is the Hogs.
I'm not sure we'll be quite as efficient as we were against Arkansas, but that is a pretty nice sign to see that the team they compare to by far the best is the Hogs.
This post was edited on 12/6/18 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 12/6/18 at 2:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The other closest comparison is Tennessee
Posted on 12/6/18 at 3:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
So you're sayin we could score upwards of 50-60 points on them?
Posted on 12/6/18 at 3:29 pm to ChoadieMcSmalls
quote:
So you're sayin we could score upwards of 50-60 points on them?
Everything points to that, yea. We have scored 50-60 against teams like them and they have given up 40-60 against the better offenses they played (which are all worse than us) : 46 to Texas Tech, 47 to Oklahoma State, 56 to West Virginia.
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