Prediction/Best Case/Worst Case - #1 Alabama vs #22 Auburn

In the past I ran a Prediction/Best/Worst scenario. Basically, this is taking the best combination of stats for us and then one where its the best combination for the opponent.

Alabama Worst Case - Auburn throws and runs for their season averages on offense and, because they are able to get a few extra first downs, runs more plays and stops us from running the normal amount of plays (normal 69, in this scenario they run 72 but prevent us from running plays). In addition, their points per yard is their yearly number and not an average of their offense and our defense, leading to more points. On offense, they hold us to their yearly average for pts per yard and we run fewer plays due to their holding the ball more. The crazy thing is Best, Worst and Prediction all have us basically at the same yards per rush and yards per pass. Our offense moving the ball is almost absolutely a certainty.

Think LSU last weekend vs Arkansas.


Alabama Best Case - Auburn is held to our defensive averages passing and running, and as they are unable to get 1st downs they are only able to run 60 plays. They are also forced to pass 35 times (which is the norm in games they trail, their ratios skew towards passing). On offense, we run the ball at will, and when we throw hit big plays. We run a few more plays than normal but not a bunch, as we score quickly.



#1 ALABAMA (-24.5) vs #22 AUBURN (O/U 62.5)

Vegas Prediction: Alabama 44-19



MODEL PREDICTION - NORMAL
ALABAMA - 47
AUBURN - 21

Alabama Total Yards (YPP): 535 (7.43 on 72 plays)
Alabama Pass Yards (YPA): 325 (10.16 on 32 plays)
Alabama Rush Yards (YPA): 210 (5.25 on 40 plays)

Auburn Total Yards (YPP): 370 (5.37 on 69 plays)
Auburn Pass Yards (YPA): 249 (6.72 on 37 plays)
Auburn Rush Yards (YPA): 122 (3.80 on 32 plays)