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re: Off Topic: Governor's race. Walt Maddox vs. Kay Ivey

Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:38 pm to
Posted by Fells
Member since Jul 2015
3907 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:38 pm to
quote:

I think Jones’ hard left turn the last few months killed


One vote is not representative of a "hard left turn".
Posted by Fells
Member since Jul 2015
3907 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:39 pm to
Ultimately though, in terms of the subject of this thread, Republicans slaughtered in Alabama and Maddox didnt even make it competitive.
Posted by Cobrasize
Birmingham
Member since Jun 2013
49680 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:42 pm to
I'm not sure if he had a choice, but Maddox taking campaign money from Soros killed him. I talked to a lot of people today and that was a big turn off.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:52 pm to
quote:

One vote is not representative of a "hard left turn".


When the subject of that vote was a SCOTUS seat, the rest become irrelevant. That one vote ended whatever slim hope he had of getting re-elected.

As far as tonight goes, I am a little surprised at the margin. Way back at the start of the thread, I predicted a 10-20 point Ivey win with the total being closer to 20 but possibly greater than 20 is impressive.

I think going dirty late with the attacks on Ivey’s health really hurt Maddox. He wasn’t going to win but had done a pretty good job of selling himself as a less-partisan candidate. Those attacks flushed all that work right down the toilet.

Anyhow, if (D)s want to ever become relevant again, they have to do a couple of things. First is distance themselves from the national party ala Joe Manchin. Second, and most important, is get rid of Whorley and Reed. If they are so inept that they can’t even mount a serious challenge to an obviously mentally disturbed man like Jim Zeigler then they have no business running anything.
Posted by FairhopeTider
Fairhope, Alabama
Member since May 2012
20756 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:52 pm to
Maddox lost Tuscaloosa County.

Again, he wasn’t going to win but he could’ve at least run an original and aggressive campaign. He basically copied Tommy Battle’s vanilla campaign strategy.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:56 pm to
quote:

Maddox lost Tuscaloosa County.


Ouch.

When is the next mayoral election? 2020? Now that he has identified as a Democrat, he might find it harder to keep the job next time around.
Posted by Fells
Member since Jul 2015
3907 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:56 pm to
I think he did a lot of things wrong. He could have been way more agressive and forced Ivey to actually make a play instead of sitting back and counting on the R next to her name (which was the right play by her, no doubt). Dude had a lot of space to try to close out and it felt like he just kind of hit a top speed and never to throw it up into a higher gear.

Personally, I think that Ivey is pretty chill and I'm not grossly dissapointed by the outcome.

I wouldn't be suprised if taking Soros bucks played a role. I hate that shite too, but I hate all big money in politics and wish that republican's distaste for it was broad and not just limited to the Soros-boogeyman.
Posted by Fells
Member since Jul 2015
3907 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 10:58 pm to
quote:

Anyhow, if (D)s want to ever become relevant again


I mean, they clearly won the night, I think it is disingenuous to call them irrelavant.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 11:03 pm to
quote:

I think it is disingenuous to call them irrelavant.



I was speaking about Alabama, not nationally. They are most certainly relevant nationally. The next two years will be an interesting dynamic on the national level. The Ds are going to control the House, but the Rs will control the Senate with a few votes to spare. We could see an even bigger shaitshow than the last 2 years or they could actually realize the need to or together and address a problem or two. Only time will tell which way it ends up. Probably shaitshow but maybe I’ll be wrong.
Posted by Fells
Member since Jul 2015
3907 posts
Posted on 11/6/18 at 11:09 pm to
quote:

I was speaking about Alabama, not nationally



Ah, my bad, that's fair.

quote:

We could see an even bigger shaitshow than the last 2 years or they could actually realize the need to or together and address a problem or two.


I've gor my money on shitshow. We are not in a good spot and we'll need severe changes to get things back on track. Our inability to not only compromise, but even have conversations amongst people with different opinions has produced nothing but dysfunction. Divided, we fall. It's really a sad state for our nation.

Posted by lion
Member since Aug 2016
765 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:27 am to
quote:


I think Jones’ hard left turn the last few months killed any hopes the Democrats had of at least being semi-competitive in this state. I
I dont think anything would have changed tonight, but Jones' stance with Kavanaugh killed a lot of momentum.
Posted by imjustafatkid
Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
50275 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:35 am to
quote:

No one reasonably expected the Dems to take the Senate.


Nonsense. This is only the third time in the last 100 years that the sitting president's party has gained or kept the Senate in his first midterm election. This is a huge win for Republicans.
Posted by Fells
Member since Jul 2015
3907 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:59 am to
quote:

This is only the third time in the last 100 years that the sitting president's party has gained or kept the Senate in his first midterm election. This is a huge win for Republicans.


The republicans had hardly any seats to defend and many Dem seats that were up were in Trump territory. Look at the map. It isn't nonsense, it's literally the structural conditions that happened to exist during this election.


Losing the House by a significant margin is by no means a huge win for republicans.

Plus they pulled like 5 gubernatorial races as a cherry topping.
Posted by JustGetItRight
Member since Jan 2012
15712 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 7:09 am to
quote:

it's literally the structural conditions that happened to exist during this election.


That’s the biggest part, but the Ds expected to flip AZ and hold FL senate seats. It doesn’t look like either of those will happen. The Ds had a VERY solid night but ending up with 55 Senate seats ain’t just a moral victory. Trump’s judicial appointments are going to start getting confirmed like shait through a tin horn and that, to quote Biden, is a big friggin deal.

So, when you take the Trump factor out and look a it alongside other post new President midterms, both sides can legitimately find things to feel pretty good about.
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 8:07 am to
quote:

Losing the House by a significant margin is by no means a huge win for republicans.



A 9 point national loss in the House vote is a pretty significant loss even though it didn't correlate to the representative number of seats it should have.
Posted by stomp
Bama
Member since Nov 2014
3705 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

Anyhow, if (D)s want to ever become relevant again, they have to do a couple of things. First is distance themselves from the national party ala Joe Manchin. Second, and most important, is get rid of Whorley and Reed. If they are so inept that they can’t even mount a serious challenge to an obviously mentally disturbed man like Jim Zeigler then they have no business running anything.


Reed has a death grip on the Alabama Dems. He is hellbent on making EVERYTHING about race and turning off folks who want to work across racial lines. Even younger black dems want him GONE.
Posted by antibarner
Member since Oct 2009
23710 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 12:47 pm to
The D's "clearly won the night" ..you can spin it that way if you like but it looks to me like they spent enormous amounts of money star power and prestige for zero return.

Obama was Ofer everywhere he went. They went all out in Georgia and it looks like they didn't get it done. Lost in Florida too.

They sent money to Beto from everywhere and cheated their asses off and still lost.

It was an average midterm situation in the House that I blame on The Lemur Paul Ryan and his Crew of Cucks. Tiptoeing through the tulips and trying not to offend anyone is no way to govern and his lame duck arse should have gotten out of the way for a real Speaker that could have saved some seats.
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 1:38 pm to
Paul Ryan sucks, but I don't think you can blame the losses by the Republicans in the House on anyone other than Trump. Republicans lost almost every single House race that was projected to be a battleground race, including several districts that Trump won in 2016. And almost all of those districts are suburban districts with high populations of college educated people. And they lost the total aggregate House vote by 9 points.

quote:

They sent money to Beto from everywhere and cheated their asses off and still lost.



Beto lost sure, but his presence on the ballot and his GOTV campaign was likely the difference in two House races in Texas that went to the Dems, and several local elections in the bigger cities of Texas. So it wasn't a complete loss.

You can cherry pick certain races to show a win for Republicans and loss for Democrats, and vice versa, but the bottom line is both parties had a pretty good night, and the night went pretty much how the models predicted.
Posted by phil4bama
Emerald Coast of PCB
Member since Jul 2011
11454 posts
Posted on 11/7/18 at 1:48 pm to
It's going to be an utter shitshow. The Dems aren't going to play ball with anything Trump and the GOP try to accomplish and Trump can't even guarantee keeping all his people in the fold because he's a loose cannon and doesn't always play the by the politics as usual handbook.

I am so ready for a 3rd, centrist party. Our political system is completely, utterly broke and dysfunctional because everyone is too busy playing political gamesmanship to govern and run the country. And I think that is the #1 issue in the electorate's mind, they just haven't identified it. I'd be willing to bet there are more people out there voting AGAINST Trump and the Republicans and AGAINST Nancy Pelosi/Feinstein/Soros just because they hate what either side stands for more than they identify with the other party's platform. The country from leadership on down, is completely polarized and there's no hope for compromise and collaboration. And it gets worse with every election. Candidates see that the guy that tries to be moderate and find the middle ground get attacked as weak by their own party, yet still on the wrong team to attract enough independents and swing voters from the other. So it's safer to move further left or right on the political spectrum to keep your party voters behind you. Then the next guy has to move further and further to win the primary and so on.

I keep thinking someone somewhere will wake up and realize it's time to challenge and change the two-party system, but I'm afraid they are too powerful and too entrenched without some sort of revolution.
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