Can PFF explain how Tua scored so low against auburn

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PFF grades the play, not its result, so the quarterback that throws the ball to defenders will be downgraded whether the defender catches the ball to notch the interception on the stat sheet or not. No amount of broken tackles and yards after the catch from a bubble screen will earn a quarterback a better grade, even though his passing stats may be getting padded.

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LINK

They grade a players responsibility and impact on every play, not what the stats say.

Kyler Murray received a 93.4, while Tua received a 73.5


Murray's stats

20/27, 74.1 completion %, 364 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
9 rushes for 114 yards, 1 TD

Tua's stats
25/32, 78.1 completion %, 324 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs
4 rushes for 26 yards, 1 TD

Now, I realize that Tua had less passing yards on more attempts, but he also had more TDs, a better completion % and zero INTs, while Kyler had 1.

And I realize that Kyler had a better day rushing, but Tua still had a good ypc, and the same amount of rushing TDs as Kyler.

I can see why Kyler's PFF score is higher, but there is no way that Tua's should be 73.5 while Kyler's is a 93.5.



Having said all of that, I have no fricking clue exactly how PFF does their scores.

Exactly. Tua didn't have any throws that could've been intercepted that should've brought his score down. Not to mention he threw some absolute dimes out there. How do those not give a high score? Of course this isn't that important but I thought it was a little strange in that pff has graded him lowly in some of his best games, while giving really high grades in some of his normal games.

he also had a sack and a penalty called for intentional grounding. i know they factor into qbr, but no clue on pff.

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Having said all of that, I have no fricking clue exactly how PFF does their scores.

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Same here, man.

They graded Ruggs

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Henry Ruggs III, WR – 70.2 overall grade

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He had 5 receptions, 62 yards totals, 12.4 yards/catch, and 2 TDs.

Plus, he had 2 key monster blocks waaaaay down field to help Jacobs and D Smith into the endzone.

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I understand the idea of knocking QBs for incompletions that should have been interceptions and not giving them credit for screen/pop passes that turn into 60 yard TDs, but completing a 40 yard pass to a guy who doesn't have a defender within 10 yards of him really shouldn't be viewed much differently.

Any semi-competent college QB should be able to make that throw with relative ease.

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I'm a big fan of analytics and more insightful stats, but analytics works much better for baseball and even basketball than football. The "graders" are having to make educated guesses on assignments and the intent of the play and that leads to a lot of subjective results.

Baseball has a concept of "Value over Replacement Player" (VORP) - it was developed to address exactly the problem that you described earlier (throwing to wide open receivers)

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What I don't understand about PFF's love affair with Murray

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They still think Tua is going to win the Heisman though

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PFF is supporting Murray for heisman.

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Not exactly. From the article you linked:

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If Oklahoma can convincingly defeat Texas for the Big 12 Championship, the Heisman is Murray’s to lose. If Tagovailoa can have another game like the one he had against Auburn where he combined to score six touchdowns against the Georgia defense in the SEC Championship game to get to 13-0, then it’s the Hawaiian’s to lose.

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FWIW, I thought it read like they favor Murray, too.

Damn right it does, one just says if he beats Texas he should get it while Tua's says throw six fricking TDs and win.

Whatever criteria used, something ought to account for being able to throw a ball to the right spot to a receiver that has barely a half step on the defender compared to tossing it to a guy who doesn't have anyone within 15 yards of him.