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Auburn (6-5, 3-4) vs #2 Alabama (10-1, 6-1) - SOG Predictor Model
Posted on 11/21/21 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 11/21/21 at 9:26 pm
I'm predicting that we throw it around quite a bit. Auburn has proven to be very, very susceptible to those zone busters that we threw really effectively last week (quick hitch stop routes), and they are a good rush defense (not great, but good). I'd imagine we try and torch them through the air.
Auburn's biggest strength on offense is running (though it's not a huge strength and Bobo has basically run/pass 50/50 this year, which is strange). Good news is, we are really damn good against the run (opponents averaging 68% of their season average against us). Throw in the fact that Nix's RPO game and running is now completely out the window, and it really takes away from their multiplicity.
I'm going to post another one below with a "worst case" type scenario if our point per yard numbers look more like last weekend/A&M/etc where we didn't capitalize on yardage, because I think the yardage totals are pretty much spot on going to happen (maybe not exactly, but in the ballpark for sure).
This post was edited on 11/23/21 at 8:51 am
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Posted on 11/21/21 at 9:32 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Florida ran for 244 yards on 42 carries. Other than that? Only A&M broke 3.0 YPA rushing, and they didn't break 100 yards total.
Arkansas - 110 yards on 42 carries (2.62)
LSU - 109 yards of 40 carries (2.73)
Texas A&M - 94 yards on 27 carries (3.48)
Ole Miss - 78 yards on 34 carries (2.29)
Mississippi St - -1 yards on 19 carries (-0.05)
Miami - 70 yards on 30 carries (2.33)
Tennessee - 64 yards on 26 carries (2.46)
We've been a dominant run defense. Pass defense......well yea.
Arkansas - 110 yards on 42 carries (2.62)
LSU - 109 yards of 40 carries (2.73)
Texas A&M - 94 yards on 27 carries (3.48)
Ole Miss - 78 yards on 34 carries (2.29)
Mississippi St - -1 yards on 19 carries (-0.05)
Miami - 70 yards on 30 carries (2.33)
Tennessee - 64 yards on 26 carries (2.46)
We've been a dominant run defense. Pass defense......well yea.
This post was edited on 11/21/21 at 9:33 pm
Posted on 11/21/21 at 9:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Auburn's best bet is to run the ball and keep it away from Bryce. It's their only real chance. Not having Carlson is a big deal, too. We actually have the edge at place kicker this year. They do have a good punter which may help them. Hopefully Finley doesn't pull a Calzada.
Posted on 11/21/21 at 9:34 pm to bamatide07
quote:
Auburn's best bet is to run the ball and keep it away from Bryce. It's their only real chance.
Bobo refuses to do that, fortunately. Also, I'm pretty sure that we'll shut that shite down.
Their only path to victory is us fvcking around (possible, as always) and Finley hitting 2-3 big plays in the air, probably aided by us being dumbasses (also possible).
Posted on 11/21/21 at 9:41 pm to SummerOfGeorge
They always seem to get some fluke plays in that stadium. And they have a tendency to get out to an early lead. If that happens this week, I hope that we keep our poise because they have not done much in the second halves of the past few games.
Posted on 11/21/21 at 9:48 pm to bamatide07
quote:
They always seem to get some fluke plays in that stadium. And they have a tendency to get out to an early lead. If that happens this week, I hope that we keep our poise because they have not done much in the second halves of the past few games.
Auburn is like a dangerous snake that has been cornered. Still has the ability to lash out and bite.
Posted on 11/21/21 at 9:49 pm to 14&Counting
Which is why we need to come out of the tunnel with a big arse shovel in our hand and beat the fvck out of that snake's head on the first drive.
Posted on 11/21/21 at 10:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
After the scare we had against Arkansas, and If Jobe hadn't messed up... we blow the game away and we would've come in this week cocky as hell. So the game we had yesterday definitely will help set the tone for this week. I expect players to be more focused against Auburn, knowing we got Georgia next.
Posted on 11/21/21 at 10:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Here is a model only using their home games (UGA, Ole Miss, State) and our road games (Florida, A&M, State).
Of course, the kicker here (like with all of these) is that they all include Nix (and Carlson, for that matter). And while he is up and down, he's much scarier than Finley.
This above is honestly more the game I am kind of expecting.
Alabama leads 7-0 after 1
Alabama leads 17-7 at halftime
Alabama leads 27-14 end of 3
Alabama wins 41-21
Something like that
Of course, the kicker here (like with all of these) is that they all include Nix (and Carlson, for that matter). And while he is up and down, he's much scarier than Finley.
This above is honestly more the game I am kind of expecting.
Alabama leads 7-0 after 1
Alabama leads 17-7 at halftime
Alabama leads 27-14 end of 3
Alabama wins 41-21
Something like that
This post was edited on 11/23/21 at 8:53 am
Posted on 11/21/21 at 10:17 pm to Panthers4life
quote:
After the scare we had against Arkansas, and If Jobe hadn't messed up... we blow the game away and we would've come in this week cocky as hell. So the game we had yesterday definitely will help set the tone for this week. I expect players to be more focused against Auburn, knowing we got Georgia next.
I mean I hope so, but I'm pretty much done trying to gauge what their focus level will be. I'm not sure how one game against NMSU would make you less focused after the shite show that was the LSU game before playing a clearly solid Arkansas team.
I hope so, though.
Posted on 11/21/21 at 10:20 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Auburn lives and dies by the run. We excel at stopping that.
If we can clean up the pass Def we will be pretty damn good. Benching Jobe was a start.
If we can clean up the pass Def we will be pretty damn good. Benching Jobe was a start.
Posted on 11/21/21 at 10:21 pm to CrimsonBoz
quote:
If we can clean up the pass Def
I'm afraid at this point that's getting close to levels of "If Oklahoma can fix the defense....".
Not necessarily against Auburn, but even they will hit a few big plays if we do our usual Washington Generals routine for 4-5 plays out of the game.
Posted on 11/22/21 at 12:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Which is why we need to come out of the tunnel with a big arse shovel in our hand and beat the fvck out of that snake's head on the first drive.
HELL YEAH!!
Posted on 11/22/21 at 4:52 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I'm afraid at this point that's getting close to levels of "If Oklahoma can fix the defense....".
This.
Our secondary is what it is.
Posted on 11/22/21 at 7:33 am to SummerOfGeorge
Bama runs out of that tunnel down 10 to Zip each time we play them in Lee County.
Your model shows we still win by 10. Great.
Your model shows we still win by 10. Great.
Posted on 11/22/21 at 7:47 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
If we can clean up the pass Def
I'm afraid at this point that's getting close to levels of "If Oklahoma can fix the defense....".
Not necessarily against Auburn, but even they will hit a few big plays if we do our usual Washington Generals routine for 4-5 plays out of the game.
Yeah I called out the secondary early on this season and was informed that they're actually really good.
JAD has been OK this season, and I don't think Jobe is the biggest problem either. Moore has regressed hard though, and I'm not sure there's a single Saban defense that Battle or Hellams start for prior to last season. When you can't rely on the Star or either safety to manage the middle of the field or provide help to the boundary corners it's going to be a mess. Especially on 3rd and long when your dumbfrick DC continues to go back to the man coverage + delayed blitz well over and over and over and over and over and over and over.
Posted on 11/22/21 at 8:09 am to Robot Santa
Yep. Our secondary and LBs have performed much better when the coverage scheme was kept simpler & safer: 5 DBs; 2 deep safeties in zone coverage. That's what we did vs Ole Miss, Miss St. & Tenn. without the stupid delayed blitzes. If we do that, avoiding costly coverage busts, I'd think Bama can score 38-45 and hold Aubie to 14-21.
This post was edited on 11/24/21 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 11/22/21 at 8:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Which is why we need to come out of the tunnel with a big arse shovel in our hand and beat the fvck out of that snake's head on the first drive.
I’m miss having legitimately crazy players on our team like Reuben Foster who would actually come out of the tunnel with a big arse shovel and shake it menacingly at the Auburn sideline.
Posted on 11/22/21 at 8:16 am to SummerOfGeorge
Comparing scores of common opponents if Alabama and Georgia, it would lend to me that Alabama will be in for a difficult afternoon.
Arkansas:
Georgia 37
Arkansas 0
Alabama 42
Arkansas 35
Florida:
Georgia 34
Florida 7
Alabama 31
Florida 29
Tennessee:
Georgia 41
Tennessee 17
Alabama 52
Tennessee 24
Auburn:
Georgia 34
Auburn 10
Alabama ??
Auburn ??
Arkansas:
Georgia 37
Arkansas 0
Alabama 42
Arkansas 35
Florida:
Georgia 34
Florida 7
Alabama 31
Florida 29
Tennessee:
Georgia 41
Tennessee 17
Alabama 52
Tennessee 24
Auburn:
Georgia 34
Auburn 10
Alabama ??
Auburn ??
Posted on 11/22/21 at 8:22 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Def I'm afraid at this point that's getting close to levels of "If Oklahoma can fix the defense....". Not necessarily against Auburn, but even they will hit a few big plays if we do our usual Washington Generals routine for 4-5 plays out of the game.
By clean up I don’t mean completely change, that’s not possible.
Easier assignments, play the ball, bench anyone who is really sucking arse.
None of that is difficult to achieve in practice and against Auburn.
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