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re: Alabama Basketball Megathread | 26-7 (16-2)
Posted on 3/3/21 at 12:49 pm to ss4bama12
Posted on 3/3/21 at 12:49 pm to ss4bama12
quote:
KAH and Gary and Ellis may get significant minutes but their 4.9 PPG or less average isn’t going to scare anyone into defending them closely.
quote:
I disagree on Ellis completely. I HOPE teams do not defend him closely as he will light their arse up from three. KAH rarely even plays. I would agree on Gary - I love his hustle and toughness, especially around the rim but he should never take a three
Gary is a clean up man. I wish he had a better post game. But he's actually short, at only 6'6". If he were a few inches taller, he'd be our Ben Wallace type.
0
Posted on 3/3/21 at 12:51 pm to CCTider
I thought he sounded a bit emotional in the post game press conference. What a journey for him
Alex Reese emotional as clock winds down
(He retweeted this)
Alex Reese emotional as clock winds down
(He retweeted this)
Posted on 3/3/21 at 12:53 pm to East Coast Band
It’s not that far fetched. My Sportsbook has Zag, Baylor, and Michigan at -10000 to be a 1 seed.
Ohio State +150
Bama +200
Ohio State +150
Bama +200
Posted on 3/3/21 at 12:56 pm to Gpfather
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:14 pm to Chadaristic
quote:
Dan Wolken going after Dan Dakich.
Dakich is definitely a douchebag. Who the hell gets into a Twitter war with a fricking prepubescent child? Then he spent 20 minutes talking about the kid and his family on air? He sounds pathetic.
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:22 pm to McGregor
quote:
Ala vs. 8/9 seed next Friday, 11am cst
shite. I was hoping for an afternoon tip off. Hopefully it'll be a slow day on-site, and I can watch it on my laptop.
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:22 pm to Chadaristic
As much as I want Bama to get a #1 seed, based on the games up to today and the way teams are playing, I'd have to go with Illinois as the fourth #1 seed.
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:30 pm to SECFan413
quote:
Im sure there is a statistic that shows that the #1 advances past the 2nd round far more than the #2, but I choose to believe what sounds better for this year
I was surprised how easy that was to find...
Edit: this is probability, not actually percentages.
Seed Second Round Sweet 16 Elite Eight Final 4 Title Game National Champ (Win)
1 99.3% 87.0% 69.6% 40.4% 23.4% 14.8%
2 94.0% 63.9% 47.3% 22.2% 10.7% 4.1%
3 85.0% 50.4% 24.2% 10.9% 7.0% 3.5%
4 79.0% 46.4% 15.8% 10.3% 2.6% 0.8%
5 65.0% 33.3% 6.3% 4.7% 1.9% 0.0%
6 62.0% 33.3% 11.0% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8%
7 61.0% 17.7% 6.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8%
8 51.0% 9.5% 6.4% 4.0% 2.4% 0.8%
9 49.0% 4.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
10 39.0% 18.3% 6.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
11 38.0% 14.8% 4.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
12 35.0% 15.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13 21.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14 15.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
15 6.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LINK
Interesting outliers.... 6th seed into the elite 8 and 8 and 11 seeds into the final four.
This post was edited on 3/3/21 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:34 pm to Chadaristic
Wtf is up with Colgate @ 9?
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:37 pm to CCTider
quote:
Wtf is up with Colgate @ 9?
They had a good showing against both Crest and Sensodyne this year.
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:42 pm to CCTider
quote:
Wtf is up with Colgate @ 9?
They have played no one good but have won all but like 3 games by double digits. A few by like 40+ points. It's an anomaly from NET factoring in efficiency in addition to wins and opponent quality.
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:46 pm to CCTider
#1/#2 seed is thrown off by the fact that you aren't really comparing #2 seeds with all the #1s, because most years there are at least 1-2 teams that are elite. You really want to try and compare #2 seeds to comparable #1 seeds (the last #1 seed).
I bet if somebody did that the advancement %s would be very similar.
I bet if somebody did that the advancement %s would be very similar.
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:51 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
They have played no one good but have won all but like 3 games by double digits. A few by like 40+ points. It's an anomaly from NET factoring in efficiency in addition to wins and opponent quality.
That's a pretty big flaw. They're #92 on KenPom and #90 on Torvik. But #9 on net? This year is obviously not normal. But their formula might need an adjustment.
Posted on 3/3/21 at 1:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#1/#2 seed is thrown off by the fact that you aren't really comparing #2 seeds with all the #1s, because most years there are at least 1-2 teams that are elite. You really want to try and compare #2 seeds to comparable #1 seeds (the last #1 seed).
I bet if somebody did that the advancement %s would be very similar.
I edited my post. But turns out that was just probabilities. And having taken statistics years ago, I pretty much assume most probabilities like this are bullshite.
Here's a much better article/link
LINK
This post was edited on 3/3/21 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 3/3/21 at 2:00 pm to CCTider
Seed 32 Sweet 16 E8 Final 4 NCG National Champion
1 99.3% 85.7% 69.3% 40.7% 48.6% 62.9%
2 94.3% 63.6% 47.1% 20.7% 18.6% 14.3%
3 85.0% 52.9% 24.3% 12.1% 15.7% 11.4%
4 79.3% 47.1% 15.0% 9.3% 4.3% 2.9%
5 64.3% 33.6% 6.4% 5.0% 4.3% 0%
6 62.9% 30.0% 10.0% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9%
7 60.7% 19.3% 7.1% 2.1% 1.4% 2.9%
8 48.6% 9.3% 5.7% 3.6% 4.3% 2.9%
9 51.4% 5.0% 2.9% 0.7% 0% 0%
10 39.3% 16.4% 5.7% 0.7% 0% 0%
11 37.1% 15.7% 5.7% 2.9% 0% 0%
12 35.7% 15.0% 0.7% 0% 0% 0%
13 20.7% 4.3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14 15.0% 1.4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
15 5.7% 0.7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
16 0.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
The 7/10 sweet 16 appearances vs 8/9 is pretty telling on the difference between a 1 & 2 seed. But as SoG pointed out, comparing the results of the 3rd and 4th 1 seed vs 1 & 2 (2) seeds, would be a much better indicator for Bama's situation.
But damn, look at 11 outlier for the final 4. Some scrappy mid majors, for sure.
https://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html
Interesting look either way.
1 99.3% 85.7% 69.3% 40.7% 48.6% 62.9%
2 94.3% 63.6% 47.1% 20.7% 18.6% 14.3%
3 85.0% 52.9% 24.3% 12.1% 15.7% 11.4%
4 79.3% 47.1% 15.0% 9.3% 4.3% 2.9%
5 64.3% 33.6% 6.4% 5.0% 4.3% 0%
6 62.9% 30.0% 10.0% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9%
7 60.7% 19.3% 7.1% 2.1% 1.4% 2.9%
8 48.6% 9.3% 5.7% 3.6% 4.3% 2.9%
9 51.4% 5.0% 2.9% 0.7% 0% 0%
10 39.3% 16.4% 5.7% 0.7% 0% 0%
11 37.1% 15.7% 5.7% 2.9% 0% 0%
12 35.7% 15.0% 0.7% 0% 0% 0%
13 20.7% 4.3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14 15.0% 1.4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
15 5.7% 0.7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
16 0.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
The 7/10 sweet 16 appearances vs 8/9 is pretty telling on the difference between a 1 & 2 seed. But as SoG pointed out, comparing the results of the 3rd and 4th 1 seed vs 1 & 2 (2) seeds, would be a much better indicator for Bama's situation.
But damn, look at 11 outlier for the final 4. Some scrappy mid majors, for sure.
https://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html
Interesting look either way.
This post was edited on 3/3/21 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 3/3/21 at 2:03 pm to CCTider
A 20% difference for reaching the Final Four and 30% for the championship game is a pretty large difference between #1 and #2 seeds.
Posted on 3/3/21 at 2:12 pm to DT55Forever1
Yea but again gotta remember that all #1s aren't the same. The borderline #1 seeds are generally much more dominant teams.
Posted on 3/3/21 at 2:17 pm to DT55Forever1
SEED FINALFOUR CHAMPGAME NATIONAL CHAMP
1 57 34 22
2 29 12 5
3 17 12 4
4 13 3 1
5 7 3 0
6 3 2 1
7 3 1 1
8 5 3 1
9 1 0 0
10 1 0 0
11 4 0 0
12 0 0 0
13 0 0 0
14 0 0 0
15 0 0 0
16 0 0 0
That didn't post very well, but essentially it shows that 1 seeds have double the Final Four appearances, nearly 3 times the Championship game appearances, and 4 times the championships.
Daggumit, Bama is gonna have to beat the odds big time. They got this.
1 57 34 22
2 29 12 5
3 17 12 4
4 13 3 1
5 7 3 0
6 3 2 1
7 3 1 1
8 5 3 1
9 1 0 0
10 1 0 0
11 4 0 0
12 0 0 0
13 0 0 0
14 0 0 0
15 0 0 0
16 0 0 0
That didn't post very well, but essentially it shows that 1 seeds have double the Final Four appearances, nearly 3 times the Championship game appearances, and 4 times the championships.
Daggumit, Bama is gonna have to beat the odds big time. They got this.
This post was edited on 3/3/21 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 3/3/21 at 2:20 pm to SECFan413
A 5 seed has never won a title damn
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