Started By
Message
re: OT: Corona Panic 2020
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:18 am to djsdawg
Posted on 3/13/20 at 9:18 am to djsdawg
quote:
It has potential
That's funny. That verbiage can be easily abused.
Florida has the potential to beat UGA in football 17 out of 20 games. But that doesnt mean what it implies for the next 20 years.
1
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:03 am to meansonny
quote:
That's funny. That verbiage can be easily abused.
It could be better. It could even be worse. Sometimes the worst case scenario happens. You want to risk that?
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:05 am to deeprig9
quote:
is actually based on calculations).
Let’s see them.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:05 am to DawgCountry
quote:
are we just making up %s now
The US isn't the only country in the world. Because we have failed to adequately prepare to do anywhere close to sufficient testing we base estimates on numbers from countries who took this more seriously.
Our numbers could be higher or lower than other countries. The lowest estimate was .7% mortality with 10% requiring hospitalization, but that was from a country that 1. Identified cases early and got people treatment and 2. had a national healthcare system, so the floor for hospitalization was likely perceived differently (Likely the same for every country with accurate numbers).
Symptoms could take 2-3 weeks to manifest, and historical data suggests the # of infected will double every 6-7 days. Not knowing the extent of spread so far puts us in a precarious position.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 10:22 am
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:19 am to chillmonster
The number of cases in the US went from around 500 to over 1000 in a just a few days. This shite is only going to keep growing so it's best we put it on lock down as best as possible because while it won't kill say you or me it can certainly kill older people. The fact that we have no vaccine and this thing can be transmitted to other 2 weeks before symptoms start showing is another major problem
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:21 am to chillmonster
quote:
The US isn't the only country in the world. Because we have failed to adequately prepare to do anywhere close to sufficient testing we base estimates on numbers from countries who took this more seriously.
Our numbers could be higher or lower than other countries. The lowest estimate was .7% mortality with 10% requiring hospitalization, but that was from a country that 1. Identified cases early and got people treatment and 2. had a national healthcare system, so the floor for hospitalization was likely perceived differently (Likely the same for every country with accurate numbers).
Symptoms could take 2-3 weeks to manifest, and historical data suggests the # of infected will double every 6-7 days. Not knowing the extend of spread so far puts us in a precarious position.
Correct. And we cannot impose the type of draconian sanctions being employed in China or Italy, so we're pretty much screwed on that front. The death tolls they are seeing are WITH those in place.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:44 am to S1C EM
We can if we want to do so.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 10:47 am to djsdawg
quote:
We can if we want to do so.
We won't. And every hillbilly Bob out there will exercise their gun rights if the threat is issued.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 12:00 pm to dawgfan24348
quote:
The number of cases in the US went from around 500 to over 1000 in a just a few days
FWIW, this is more a symptom of more tests being available than anything. I do believe it's spreading, and doing so quickly, but the "number of cases" is such an unreliable figure in the US right now because we literally aren't even allowing people to be tested in many cases because we're still short on tests overall it seems (or were as of last night).
Posted on 3/13/20 at 12:30 pm to fibonaccisquared
I heard a rumor Trump is going to quarantine the country this afternoon. Anyone else hear that?
Posted on 3/13/20 at 12:31 pm to FinleyStreet
declaring national emergency is not quarantining the entire country
Posted on 3/13/20 at 12:32 pm to FinleyStreet
State of Emergency... will allow a lot of funding. Also, will likely stop non essential travel for a spell.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 12:59 pm to S1C EM
quote:
won't. And every hillbilly Bob out there will exercise their gun rights if the threat is issued.
They would get decimated
Posted on 3/13/20 at 1:27 pm to djsdawg
LINK
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Tomas Pueyo
Follow
Mar 10 · 26 min read
Updated on 3/13/2020. Now reflects an update on containment vs. mitigation strategies. 13 translations at the bottom. Send me more existing translations in private notes at the bottom. This article has received 18 million views in the last 48h.
GSB friends, The link up top points to a very complete analysis of the covid-19 pandemic. The analysis of fatality rates should be scary as hell for us here in the US. A delayed response like we have witnessed overwhelms a healthcare system and fatality rates skyrocket. My first guess at US deaths was 1,000,000. Now I think that figure is on the low end.
The writer's conclusion
Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Tomas Pueyo
Follow
Mar 10 · 26 min read
Updated on 3/13/2020. Now reflects an update on containment vs. mitigation strategies. 13 translations at the bottom. Send me more existing translations in private notes at the bottom. This article has received 18 million views in the last 48h.
GSB friends, The link up top points to a very complete analysis of the covid-19 pandemic. The analysis of fatality rates should be scary as hell for us here in the US. A delayed response like we have witnessed overwhelms a healthcare system and fatality rates skyrocket. My first guess at US deaths was 1,000,000. Now I think that figure is on the low end.
The writer's conclusion
Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 2:01 pm to Whiznot
quote:
GSB friends, The link up top points to a very complete analysis of the covid-19 pandemic. The analysis of fatality rates should be scary as hell for us here in the US. A delayed response like we have witnessed overwhelms a healthcare system and fatality rates skyrocket. My first guess at US deaths was 1,000,000. Now I think that figure is on the low end.
Yeah. I think the conservative numbers are enough for people to be alarmed and even angry that we're now in this situation. The fact is, however, those best-case numbers are probably better than ours will turn out.
After the initial outbreak China and SK those health systems would test extensively then identify & isolate those who were infected often before they were showing symptoms. That both slowed the spread and allowed them to treat immediately, greatly mitigating the rate of mortality.
Even if we had tried in a timely fashion to take the necessary steps (which we didn't at all) replicating that response is much more difficult for the US. Yes, there are demographics factors as well as cultural/lifestyle factors that may change the numbers in America, but it makes sense to prepare and take precautions for a pretty dire scenario.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 3:48 pm to fibonaccisquared
quote:
FWIW, this is more a symptom of more tests being available than anything. I do believe it's spreading, and doing so quickly, but the "number of cases" is such an unreliable figure in the US right now because we literally aren't even allowing people to be tested in many cases because we're still short on tests overall it seems (or were as of last night).
There are thousands of people with it right now that have no idea they have it just because tests aren’t available.
Posted on 3/13/20 at 4:22 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
There are thousands of people with it right now that have no idea they have it just because tests aren’t available.
Which is bad news for us
Posted on 3/13/20 at 4:42 pm to djsdawg
It will come and go for most people. A bad cold at worst.
But as the numbers increase it will increase the panic until people realize that for most people realize it’s not the end of the world. Some people will be hit hard and thats a terrible thing. But it will be a small %.
The markets will continue to tank until the number of cases in the US peak...I estimate 30 days or so. After that things will calm down. If you have cash get ready to push all in because with all this stimulus the markets are going to rocket up....especially if they get this oil thing figured out.
But as the numbers increase it will increase the panic until people realize that for most people realize it’s not the end of the world. Some people will be hit hard and thats a terrible thing. But it will be a small %.
The markets will continue to tank until the number of cases in the US peak...I estimate 30 days or so. After that things will calm down. If you have cash get ready to push all in because with all this stimulus the markets are going to rocket up....especially if they get this oil thing figured out.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 4:57 pm to Dawgsontop34
Even with tests, there will be thousands out there spreading it. The "lack" of tests is a political topic for liberals.
This post was edited on 3/13/20 at 4:59 pm
Posted on 3/13/20 at 5:16 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:A majority of them wouldn’t seek out the tests anyways because they wouldn’t be that sick. More availability of tests also increases the amount of worried well showing up for them further increasing exposure.
There are thousands of people with it right now that have no idea they have it just because tests aren’t available.
Page 20 of 174
Latest Georgia News
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News