Started By
Message
re: FYI: Best Auburn Recruiting Thread on the internet, updated 24/7...
Posted on 1/30/12 at 12:32 pm to beatbammer
Posted on 1/30/12 at 12:32 pm to beatbammer
4600!!
BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!
BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!
2
Posted on 1/30/12 at 12:35 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Posted on 1/30/12 at 12:36 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
Sorry. Got a little excited. Going into my 5th year on this site and that was my first round number thread count post, post.
I sorta feel like I have finally arrived.
I sorta feel like I have finally arrived.
Posted on 1/30/12 at 12:37 pm to beatbammer
quote:
Is Brannigan the same guy as "AUTiger22" on ITAT?
Sure sounds like the same pompous "realist" (i.e. constantly negative) attitude.
No. I dont post on ITAT. And for the record, my other alias is WokDontRun. If you see that on TheRinger or HABOTN, then it is me.
Posted on 1/30/12 at 12:37 pm to Tiger n Miami AU83
Posted on 1/30/12 at 1:01 pm to CaptainBrannigan
quote:
No. I dont post on ITAT. And for the record, my other alias is WokDontRun. If you see that on TheRinger or HABOTN, then it is me.
OK.
Pompous "realist" who happens to be an Auburn *and* a Red Sox fan at the same time.
Amazing coincidence.
Posted on 1/30/12 at 1:12 pm to CaptainBrannigan
I think I remember the Wok on the ringer
Posted on 1/30/12 at 1:32 pm to HVAU
quote:
An anybody looking for the 3 year bump thing, it was written up by ellitor I believe. He's active on AE so just look through his posts if you want it. It is well thought out, but probably still does not portray things accurately.
LINK
Here it is:
Here is the full one with records for each year for each team.
Year Champion
Year after champions NC 1 2 3 4
2000- OU
2001 Record 13-0 11-2 12-2 12-2 12-1
Scout
overall - 2 3 7 5
player avg. - 5 3 2 12
Rivals
overall - 7 4 8 3
player avg. - 2* 6 2 6
2001- Miami
2002 Record 12-0 12-1 11-2 9-3 9-3
Scout
overall 4 6 3 12 14
player avg. 1* 8 5 6 10
Rivals
overall 8 5 5 7 14
player avg. 5 5 9 2 15
2002- Ohio State
2003 Record 14-0 11-2 8-4 10-2 12-1
Scout
overall 25 11 7 13 16
player avg. 5 12 7 7 5
Rivals
overall 41 9 12 12 15
player avg. 11 11 9 8 4
2003- LSU
2004 Record 12-1 9-3 11-2 11-2 13-0
Scout
overall 2 19 7 5 7
player avg. 4 8 9 3 11
Rivals
overall 2 22 7 4 11
player avg. 6 4 12 3 9
2004- USC
2005 Record 13-0 12-1 11-2 11-2 12-1
Scout
overall 6 1 2 9 9
player avg. 1 1 1 3 1
Rivals
overall 1 1 2 8 4
player avg. 1 2 1 2 2
2005- Texas
2006 Record 13-0 10-3 10-3 12-1 13-1
Scout
overall 3 3 16 7 3
player avg. 3 4 6 6 2
Rivals
overall 5 5 14 5 3
player avg. 9 5 10 3 2
2006- Florida
2007 Record 13-1 9-4 13-1 13-1
Sciout
overall 1 12 22 1
player avg. 2 7 3 3
Rivals
overall 1 3 11 2
player avg. 2 4 1 3
2007- LSU
2008 Record 12-2 7-5 9-4
Scout
overall 7 3 7
player avg. 11 5 12
Rivals
overall 11 2 6
player avg. 9 6 6
2008- Florida
2009 Record 13-1 13-1
Scout
overall 22 1
player avg. 8 3
Rivals
overall 2 2
player avg. 6 3
2009- Alabama
2010 Record 14-0
Scout
overall 4
player avg. 10
Rivals
overall 5
player avg. 4
Scout averages
Year after championship NC 1 2 3 4
overall rank avg. 8.2 7.1 8.4 7.7 9
per player avg. 5 5.9 6.8 4.3 6.8
Rivals averages
overall rank avg. 8.4 6.2 7.6 6.6 8.3
per player avg. 5.9 4.7 6.8 3.3 6.3
Notes:
NC=national champion.
ESPN rankings were not used because they only go back to 2006 and do not have a per player ranking.
Player average and per player average are in terms on stars per player.
*=Miami and OU were not technically 1 and 2 in star player average in Scout. They were 2 and 5 but were calculated as 1 and 2 for the data because the other 3 teams were new to D-! and only had 1 or 2 recruits. https://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=14&yr=2002
Conclusions:
1. USC should have never EVER lost a game.
2. If you want to win a national championship you better be no more than 1 state away from the big 3 recruiting states...ie Florida, Texas, California. Ohio state is the only school to win the title in the BCS era and not be no more than a state away from the big 3 states in recruiting.
3. The south is the best area for high school football. It's not just media hype. Again Ohio State is the only exception. You may say Oklahoma but remember OU has Texas and Texas is in the South.
-Points 2 and 3 mean Auburn has a HUGE statistical advantage over Oregon on predicting the national championship game.
Correlations:
1. There is not consistent evidence to correlate winning a national title with the quality of players that sign 1 year after winning the championship being better than the players signed the same year as winning the Championship. 2. There appears to be a some correlation between winning the championship and signing a better overall class the following year. This point combined with point 1 would seem to indicate the better overall class comes from key players graduating or turning pro more than quality of players coming in. More players are needed thus overall numbers are better.
3. The most interesting correlation to me is that the most dramatic increase in quality of player signed in both Scout and Rivals is in year 3 after winning the national title. For Auburn that year is 2013-2014 and the year that current Freshmen graduate. So if auburn wins the national title the biggest recruiting jump in quality of player is projected in 2013 according to the data
This post was edited on 1/30/12 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 1/30/12 at 1:38 pm to RedMustang
Good work.
The guy that posted it is definitely one of the better posters on AU eagle. It's definitely interesting.
The guy that posted it is definitely one of the better posters on AU eagle. It's definitely interesting.
Posted on 1/30/12 at 1:39 pm to RedMustang
Yeah, but the sample size includes teams that will always be top 5 or so...maybe with Miami excluded. So, is the "Year 3" bump a real thing, or is it just that the schools listed will always be in on the top spot?
Posted on 1/30/12 at 1:39 pm to RedMustang
More readable:
Scout class ranking after NC:
YR1: 7.1
YR2: 8.4
YR3: 7.7
Rivals
YR1: 6.2
YR2: 7.6
YR3: 6.6
I do not really see any point here. The ratings are all very close, with a very small sample size to begin with.
ETA: The per player averages are a bit better in year three, but not by some huge margin and again, it is a tiny sample size that can be easily influenced by a couple of outliers.
Scout class ranking after NC:
YR1: 7.1
YR2: 8.4
YR3: 7.7
Rivals
YR1: 6.2
YR2: 7.6
YR3: 6.6
I do not really see any point here. The ratings are all very close, with a very small sample size to begin with.
ETA: The per player averages are a bit better in year three, but not by some huge margin and again, it is a tiny sample size that can be easily influenced by a couple of outliers.
This post was edited on 1/30/12 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 1/30/12 at 1:45 pm to NBamaAlum
I don't really buy the whole year 3 NC bump theory. For the most parts you have the same teams in the top 10 in recruiting every year. Plus who cares if you win a NC when a kid is a SO in high school? The way kids are now they will have probably forgetten about it by the time they are SR's.
Posted on 1/30/12 at 1:55 pm to AA7
The best way to stay at high level recruiting is to consistently win and put kids in the NFL. There really is no secret to it all. Saban and Miles get the best because they are in the NC hunt every year and put guys in the NFL. If Auburn can compete every season and develop some NFL caliber guys then we will stay at the top as well. And of course winning the NC always helps and I think we've seen the result of it in the fact that we have become more known on the national recruiting stage
Posted on 1/30/12 at 2:01 pm to TigerPaw1
quote:
If Auburn can compete every season and develop some NFL caliber guys then we will stay at the top as well.
If you want to really see the effects of Tubs last 2 years of recruiting, look how many NFL players he recruited that got drafted. He did great early, but last year and the year before, and this year are going to be pretty weak, with the exception of Cam and Nick, and Cam was a Chizik recruit, and while Nick was originally a Tubs recruit, he came in with Chizik's first class.
Posted on 1/30/12 at 2:10 pm to beatbammer
Former Auburn player comments on recruiting drama:
https://twitter.com/#!/dragon_mccain/status/164052536070905857
https://twitter.com/#!/dragon_mccain/status/164052536070905857
quote:
@dragon_mccain Andrew McCain
HS fball recruits: creating drama 4 urself during recruiting makes ur future teammates want to knock ur arse out the first day of practice
1 hour ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
Posted on 1/30/12 at 2:26 pm to beatbammer
quote:
HS fball recruits: creating drama 4 urself during recruiting makes ur future teammates want to knock ur arse out the first day of practice
1 hour ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
I wished all recruits would read this and take it to heart.
I also think the data on the three year bump is not statistically significant. The sample size is small, and there is not a huge difference in the numbers from year to year. I think it does however, dispute the idea that a NC gives you a definite bump in the following year.
Posted on 1/30/12 at 2:35 pm to RedMustang
recruiting is about personal relationships moreso than a program's wins and losses... every major program across the country can sell their history -- long and short term... but it's the coaches that can make connections with prospects that win in the end... not some trophy in case.
I'm not saying NCs and Heismans don't make a difference... but it's not the be all end all.
I'm not saying NCs and Heismans don't make a difference... but it's not the be all end all.
Posted on 1/30/12 at 3:46 pm to beatbammer
quote:
Auburn *and* a Red Sox fan at the same time.
Hey, that's me
ETA: But not the pompous a-hole part, unless I'm on the poli board that is.
This post was edited on 1/30/12 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 1/30/12 at 4:08 pm to beatbammer
quote:
@dragon_mccain Andrew McCain
HS fball recruits: creating drama 4 urself during recruiting makes ur future teammates want to knock ur arse out the first day of practice
1 hour ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
lol. Always like McCain. Super nice dude. Glad he got to start for a year. Too bad it was a year early.
Posted on 1/30/12 at 4:15 pm to Stanky Legg
quote:
Moore will choose AU Tuesday night live with Chad Simmons. Moore and Darby are good friends and are well acquainted having competed in track over the years.
Georgia is close to offering, per Bryan Matthews.
Don't see it having much effect, though...
Page 231 of 298
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News