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Do rankings matter less than ever?
Posted on 5/11/20 at 11:31 am
Posted on 5/11/20 at 11:31 am
I know there are flaws in how recruit rankings are done, but in general they have some idea or what they’re doing. Projection is tough. Even after years of tape in college, The NFL still misses royally.
With no spring practice, no camps, and little to go off of are rankings mattering less and less this year? Can someone explain to me how a recruit’s ranking and greatly change during this time? Outside of gaining more offers, they should stay fairly stagnant, right? Or does this give more time to watch tape and correct earlier rankings?
Just some general thoughts and hopefully a start of a convo.
With no spring practice, no camps, and little to go off of are rankings mattering less and less this year? Can someone explain to me how a recruit’s ranking and greatly change during this time? Outside of gaining more offers, they should stay fairly stagnant, right? Or does this give more time to watch tape and correct earlier rankings?
Just some general thoughts and hopefully a start of a convo.
5
Posted on 5/11/20 at 11:34 am to Farmer1906
The process is definitely not as far along as it would be at this point, and will be massively behind by late summer.
Rankings are't perfect, but seeing kids compete against each other on the same field in general football stuff and in athleticism drills absolutely does give a better idea about a lot of kids. Yes, it leads to some getting overvalued based on "how they look in shorts", but in general it verifies whether some tape is legit or not and it helps a ton with kids who don't play high school games in talent rich regions.
Sand Mtn mentioned it earlier, but if things stay the way they are this could be a huge year for smaller schools grabbing diamonds in the rough that usually would get recognized at some point later in the process and picked up by the big boys. On the flip side, probably some more misses by the big boys too on kids they might have re-evaluated in the fall or at camps.
Rankings are't perfect, but seeing kids compete against each other on the same field in general football stuff and in athleticism drills absolutely does give a better idea about a lot of kids. Yes, it leads to some getting overvalued based on "how they look in shorts", but in general it verifies whether some tape is legit or not and it helps a ton with kids who don't play high school games in talent rich regions.
Sand Mtn mentioned it earlier, but if things stay the way they are this could be a huge year for smaller schools grabbing diamonds in the rough that usually would get recognized at some point later in the process and picked up by the big boys. On the flip side, probably some more misses by the big boys too on kids they might have re-evaluated in the fall or at camps.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 11:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
We will find out who the recruiters are when this class matures. Who loses guys to the portal, who can find and develop talent, who the kids are trusting and has a solid reputation with the high school kids and coaches.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
I wouldn’t be too surprised to some of the big boys ask long time commits to look around late in the process when better prospects are identified.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:26 pm to Smokeyone
Biggest X factors right now are the opportunity for visits and senior seasons. You’re seeing teams like Tennessee and Clemson get hot in part because their coaches could sell ice to eskimos and phone conversations are basically the only recruiting mechanism available. If recruits can start getting on campuses, you’re going to see guys flipping all over the damn place (not just from those two schools but everywhere, UGA included). How do coaches respond to that change in procedure if/when it’s allowed to happen?
As for high school seasons: are they going to be played? What happens when one state plays but another doesn’t? How prevalent will injuries be in the absence of conditioning at that level? Will schools take a kid who got to play a senior season over someone who didn’t because the season was shut down?
There is a lot that has to unfold one way or the other leading to December and obviously a lot of the big camp events seem to be destined for cancellation (the Opening is not only a huge showcase of talent but leads to a lot of recruits bonding and trying to sway one another).
It’s going to be a historic class to look back on, no doubt.
As for high school seasons: are they going to be played? What happens when one state plays but another doesn’t? How prevalent will injuries be in the absence of conditioning at that level? Will schools take a kid who got to play a senior season over someone who didn’t because the season was shut down?
There is a lot that has to unfold one way or the other leading to December and obviously a lot of the big camp events seem to be destined for cancellation (the Opening is not only a huge showcase of talent but leads to a lot of recruits bonding and trying to sway one another).
It’s going to be a historic class to look back on, no doubt.
This post was edited on 5/11/20 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 5/11/20 at 3:01 pm to tylerdurden24
quote:
What happens when one state plays but another doesn’t?
Now that is interesting. I wonder if we'll see transfers from states not playing into states that are.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 3:05 pm to tylerdurden24
quote:
You’re seeing teams like Tennessee
TN is using NCAA 14 dynasty mode to sell recruits.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 3:16 pm to Farmer1906
I think if for example Alabama and South Carolina hav seasons but Georgia doesn’t (or even just regions within Georgia) you could see a lot of talent relocate
Posted on 5/11/20 at 7:57 pm to Farmer1906
LSU sure proved it last year
Posted on 5/11/20 at 8:14 pm to tylerdurden24
And some schools open and have visits while others are in states still locked down?
East TN is fine with the virus now. Knox county has 477,000 people and 5 dead with 50ish active cases and never really got bad. No reason why Knoxville isn’t open and UT campus open but areas like Atlanta and GaTech likely will not.
East TN is fine with the virus now. Knox county has 477,000 people and 5 dead with 50ish active cases and never really got bad. No reason why Knoxville isn’t open and UT campus open but areas like Atlanta and GaTech likely will not.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 10:47 pm to LSUNV
What did they prove?
Posted on 5/11/20 at 10:50 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
What did they prove?
Yea, LSU had the 5th best overall talent in the country per recruiting rankings. Add in an elite QB to an overall talent base like that and a national title makes a lot of sense.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 5:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
LSU was 5th and defeated 1-4 minus Ohio State who they didn’t get to play. Recruiting obviously matters but rankings lack reliability and accuracy. The reasons are numerous. In a way, I’m glad they exist. It makes CFB more interesting.
Posted on 5/14/20 at 9:42 pm to LSU Patrick
It is for fans only. It always a bout money for subscriptions and the elite programs are the big sellers. A 3 star recruit at 6-5 320 Indiana commit for example flips to Ohio State. Well since the recruiting sites believe that recruit is good enough to play for Ohio State then they are bumped to a 4 star.
Treylon Burks was briefly a 5 star but committed to a 2-10 Arkansas team early. He gets bumped down to a 4 star. Does this mean he isn't as good as advertised? No he signed with a shitty team that doesn't sell enough interest unlike the football powers. So they can go with the excuse that other elite schools backed off and thus wasn't good enough to play for those teams.
Coaches don't go on the internet and look at recruiting on 24/7 or rivals. Bobby Bowden Sr. did but admitted how bad a mistake it was because of the massive turnover rate of those classes.
Coaches have to scout and evaluate these players before they offer a scholarship and if they rely on recruiting sites to do the work for them then they will be looking for another job.
Treylon Burks was briefly a 5 star but committed to a 2-10 Arkansas team early. He gets bumped down to a 4 star. Does this mean he isn't as good as advertised? No he signed with a shitty team that doesn't sell enough interest unlike the football powers. So they can go with the excuse that other elite schools backed off and thus wasn't good enough to play for those teams.
Coaches don't go on the internet and look at recruiting on 24/7 or rivals. Bobby Bowden Sr. did but admitted how bad a mistake it was because of the massive turnover rate of those classes.
Coaches have to scout and evaluate these players before they offer a scholarship and if they rely on recruiting sites to do the work for them then they will be looking for another job.
Posted on 5/14/20 at 9:48 pm to dchog
quote:
It is for fans only. It always a bout money for subscriptions and the elite programs are the big sellers. A 3 star recruit at 6-5 320 Indiana commit for example flips to Ohio State. Well since the recruiting sites believe that recruit is good enough to play for Ohio State then they are bumped to a 4 star.
Treylon Burks was briefly a 5 star but committed to a 2-10 Arkansas team early. He gets bumped down to a 4 star. Does this mean he isn't as good as advertised? No he signed with a shitty team that doesn't sell enough interest unlike the football powers. So they can go with the excuse that other elite schools backed off and thus wasn't good enough to play for those teams.
Coaches don't go on the internet and look at recruiting on 24/7 or rivals. Bobby Bowden Sr. did but admitted how bad a mistake it was because of the massive turnover rate of those classes.
Coaches have to scout and evaluate these players before they offer a scholarship and if they rely on recruiting sites to do the work for them then they will be looking for another job.
Great post. And Rivals is the worst about pulling stars away from commits late in the cycle if they think they aren't flipping to a blue blood. Rivals = rectums
Posted on 5/15/20 at 12:39 pm to Farmer1906
I think it could be balanced out as services have more time and focus more on digging into the actual film on prospects.
The main drawback is that it’s tougher to get verified physical specs. That’s the biggest role of camps.
The main drawback is that it’s tougher to get verified physical specs. That’s the biggest role of camps.
Posted on 5/15/20 at 12:41 pm to dchog
quote:
Coaches don't go on the internet and look at recruiting on 24/7 or rivals.
Of course they do. It helps them identify players to at least look at, especially non-local prospects. If you need a WR and can’t find one locally, recruiting services can be a good starting point to identify a pool for further evaluation without burning resources on a national wild goose chase.
This post was edited on 5/15/20 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 5/18/20 at 3:04 pm to Farmer1906
247, espn, etc. all need traffic so they all need content. Whether or not they have meaningful information with which to produce that content in no way changes these fundamental truths.
Ranking changes right now mean nothing at all.
Ranking changes right now mean nothing at all.
Posted on 5/18/20 at 3:07 pm to chillmonster
quote:
Ranking changes right now mean nothing at all.
A&M Commits - are pretty much all dropping.
5/15 247 Updates
Shadrach Banks -0.0037
Eli Stowers -0.0118
Jahzion Harris -0.0009
Trey Zuhn -0.0007
Victory Vaka -0.0158 (and again 5/18 -0.0074) - 5th time they've dropped him since Feb.
Matthew Wykoff -0.0009
Fernando Garza +0.0069
Kaci Seegars +0.0094
Posted on 5/20/20 at 6:32 pm to Farmer1906
All the LSU recruits dropped also.
What school is getting all the bump ups and why?
What school is getting all the bump ups and why?
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