Why doesn’t transitive property work?

2014 Ole Miss beat Bama by 6.

2014 Bama beat Arkansas by 1.

Transitive property said Rebs should beat Arkansas by more than 1 because they beat Bama who beat Arkansas.

Hogs beat the Rebs 30-0.

Florida beat Tennessee
Kentucky beat Florida
Tennessee beat Kentucky

Why doesn’t it work?

Because there are a thousand variables that do not remain consistent week to week

Because football is sometimes about individual matchups rather than overall record, etc.

Team A might be incredible against the run but be a mess against the pass.

If they play team B who is a run based offense that can’t throw the ball they will look great.

If they play team C who can’t run but throws the ball effectively team C will probably have a huge day even if their record is the same as team B.

It’s why any effective algorithm to predict scores has to take into account relative performance down to the run/pass level on both offense and defense to perform well.

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But the most important variables are ALL the same

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I disagree. All of these variables vary week to week.

Individual skill matchups (at each position)
Injuries
Location
Weather
Mental state

Each day is different. If you accomplished x number of tasks today then tomorrow you should be able to do the same but we don’t.

Joe Pendry used to say every game he coached was like the opening game of the season. You don’t know how players will respond this week.

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Why doesn’t transitive property work?

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The context of each game, variables from weather to player energy/prep/mistakes/successes, and matchups all matter. It is literally called a game of inches for a reason. A few plays made or missed here or there could have major impacts to the outcome and momentum.

Even two talented, evenly-matched teams can have drastically different outcomes from one game to the next against each other. Just look at the history of CFB matches in the same season or to the NFL.

The outcomes against common opponents have even less bearing as a predictor of a future match between the teams that played that common opponent.

There is a complexity and level of dynamism inherent in all human activity that makes it uncertain. While the %s may show a favorite, the teams still get a vote, so it's why they play the games.

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All of these variables vary week to week.

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Most vary half to half, quarter to quarter, series to series, and play to play.

I asked this before and got laughed at. You will too

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It’s just strange that it doesn’t.

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It’s really not