re: What is Each Program’s Biggest Threat?

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Biggest threats?

1. Choosing an unsuitable replacement for our head coach after he leaves.
2. Becoming satisfied with mediocrity.
3. The Missouri State Bears.

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What has the highest probability of derailing your program?

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Probably hiring an established, competent head coach with experience.

That has a pretty high probability of completely knocking our program off its course

Complacency

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For Alabama, it is a fanbase with unrealistic expectations who have forgotten what the Mike years were like.

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That could be LSU's problem, too. And I would adjust it a little for both programs- not "fanbase", it's the big money boosters with those demands.

Let's look at the Kelly situation from a distance:
LSU had fallen off significantly. They'd run Les Miles off for being 9-3 and no further challenging for national titles after 2011. Got stuck with Orgeron in an embarrassing development, and to his credit 2019 happened. But then the wheels fell off- 2 straight .500 seasons, players leaving, good assistants leaving and not being replaced at comparable levels, Orgeron meddling with the schemes his coordinators tried to use, and Orgeron being completely unhinged and having a midlife crisis instead of focusing on the program.
LSU raided Notre Dame for the next coach, and Kelly got the team respectable again. Made it to Atlanta his first seaosn. 34-14 record at LSU, 10, 10, and 9 wins his first 3 seasons, with a Heisman winner he pulled from the portal.
Did that get him some slack? No, he got fired in the middle of the 4th season, despite still having a winning record (5-3) and a $50 mil buyout.

Let's be straight up here: his record and achievements are comparable to Kiffin at Ole Miss, and DeBoer at Bama is tracking at the same pace. Grumblings are now surfacing, but that seems par for any firing... the point is that LSU didn't accept "good". If it's not Kirby/UGA level or better, LSU is going to find reasons to fire you.

It might work out, or it might drive the program into the ditch for a long time. There's a lot of SEC teams that can jump you in a heartbeat.

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You have Alabama fans today on this message board saying Deboer should be fired. They don’t know where the $61 million dollars to pay the buyout will come from. And they don’t have an idea who a better replacement coach would be. But they are certain Deboer should be fired. Friend, that is not an asset

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This is how I feel. And I mean, nothing happens in a vacuum. The sport is nearly unrecognizable from where it was 3-5 years ago, and it’s continuing to evolve at the same rate. KD has been a good coach everywhere he’s been, and (to our knowledge) he’s not slapping around secretaries or banging boys. It’s an absolute cluster frick out there right now and who knows who the best coaches are going to be going forward. Assuming player acquisition remains solid and we’re just stuck in this playoff bubble world for now, best to sit tight with KD for at least 4-5 years and see how things shake out. It seems so obvious, yet here we are.