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Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:00 am to AUTiger789
quote:
LSU: 9-3
I think a 9-3 season and missing the playoff would make some folks be disappointed, but at the end of the day it's a first year coach taking over a team that went 7-6 and lost to Houston in a bowl game last season. I think 8-4 would probably wake LSU fans up enough to realize the circus they have to endure probably isn't worth it. There'd be some disgruntled Cajuns.
I expect 9-3 or 10-2. I have a hard time seeing us be above or below that, but this is college football, anything can happen, especially if there are injuries.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:04 am to AUTiger789
quote:
That's fine. Let's see how the fans react if he goes 8-4 and takes Bama to the Music City Bowl. I'm sure fans would be 100% supportive.
Unless the fans are able to shell out the 60 plus million dollars he'd be owed if he's fired plus the money to hire a better coach to replace him then how they react doesn't really matter.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:06 am to AUTiger789
One man's ceiling is another man's floor.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:13 am to AUTiger789
Ole Miss is 8-4, tough schedule, tough road games, loaded sec, extremely high expectations
I could also see 10-2 as ceiling
I could also see 10-2 as ceiling
Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:16 am to VFL67
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He has had one 5 loss season at TN
What??
quote:
not counting his first year
Ahh. So multiple? Including one in Year 5. And yet he's not at all on the hot seat.... not even close.
quote:
Only 2 coaches at Auburn since 1920 have had higher winning percentages than Heupel.
That's because we fired almost every single one of them when they started tanking the program.
Chizik had a 75% win% through three seasons (way higher than Heuple's now)... then he had a disastrous Year 4 so we fired him (plus he had a National Title!)
Tuberville had a 71% win% through 9 seasons (better than Heuple's now). Then he had a disastrous Year 10 so we fired him.
Take Gus Malzahn. Through 2019 he 62-31 (.667) which is very much in line with where Heupel is now (.692). The only difference is that Gus had already won an SEC Title, played for a National Title, and played in two SEC Championship Games. He also faced a MUCH more difficult strength of schedule compared to the ease of that Heupel has faced....
Through 2019, 16% of all opponents Malzahn faced at Auburn finished in the AP Top 5 (Heupel is currently at 10.8%). A total of 26% of Gus' opponents finished in the AP Top 10 (Heupel is currently at 17%).
Considering Gus' hardware and SOS he faced, he had a far better resume compared to what Heupel has now. Yet Gus entered the 2020 season on the hot seat and was ultimately fired after he finished 5th in the SEC standings that season.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. Auburn pulls the trigger when coaches aren't meeting expectations while Tennessee celebrates a coach for doing even less.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:24 am to AUTiger789
Stupid thread. You started out talking about each teams 'floor expectation', and then instead talked about something completely different, i.e. what is the lowest number of wins for each team without triggering a hot seat for the coach.
Again, stupid thread.
Again, stupid thread.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:37 am to NFLSU
quote:
The two programs have fallen off the face of the earth in the last decade plus… Are you going to try and explain why or just hope for something different while doing the exact same thing?
Buddy some of us are old enough to remember LSU in the early '90s...
1989: 4-7
1990: 5-6
1991: 5-6
1992: 2-9
1993: 5-6
1994: 4-7
You guys went through that drought and then hired Vandy's head coach who never had a winning record in four seasons with the Dores.
Programs go through droughts. Auburn fans were fortunate that until this recent stretch, we had never had a single stretch of finishing outside the Top 25 for longer than 4 seasons since 1953.
Alabama was the only program that could say they'd not experienced a drought like that since the 1950s. Georgia isn't too far off either... their last drought of finishing unranked for more than 4 seasons last occurred from 1960-1965 (6 seasons).
Florida went 8 straight seasons finishing outside the Top 25 from 1975-1982.
LSU went 8 straight seasons finishing outside the Top 25 from 1974-1981... then turned around and had another 7 year drought of finishing unranked from 1989-1995.
Tennessee had a 10-year drought... finishing unranked each season between 1975-1984. Then had a 7-season drought from 2008-2014 and another 5-year drought from 2017-2021.
Texas had a 6-year drought from 1984-1989... and a 5-year drought from 2013-2017.
Oklahoma had a 6-year drought from 1994-1999.
Since 1953, Auburn had never experienced a drought like that. From 1953-2019 (67 seasons), Auburn ranked 10th nationally in the AP Top 25 finishes... ahead of LSU, Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee. Our program was probably due for a drought. We're here now. But as evidenced by those other examples (except for Tennessee), good programs go through these seasons and find their way out of them. Every single one of the aforementioned programs (again, except for Tennessee) came out of their drought and went on to win a national title. Auburn will too in time.
The last time Auburn's program had a long drought was from 1943-1952... 10 seasons outside the Final AP rankings. We came out of that and won a national title five years later in 1957.
Auburn will recover again. It's inevitable.
This post was edited on 9/3/26 at 10:39 am
Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:39 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Ahh. So multiple? Including one in Year 5. And yet he's not at all on the hot seat.... not even close.
You are the one on here saying that if Golesh goes 7-5 in year one, it will be a success, given what he inherited. Why is Heupel's 7-5 in year 1 not a success then? Outside of a successful year 1, he has had one other 5-loss season
quote:
we fired almost every single one of them when they started tanking the program.
No yall fired coaches after they tanked the program not just cause things weren't trending well or unhappy mid seasons:
Carl Voyles: 2-7 (year 4) program tanked
Earl Brown: 0-10 (year 3) program tanked
Shug Jordan: 4-6-1 (year 25) program tanked
Doug Bartfield: 5-6 (year 5) program tanked
Pat Dye: 5-5-1 (year 12) program tanked
Terry Bowden: 3-8 (year 6) program tanked
Tommy Tuberville: 5-7 (year 10) program tanked
Gene Chizik: 3-9 (year 4) program tanked
Gus: 6-5 (year 8) program idle
Bryan Harsin: 5-7 (year 2) program tanked
Hugh Freeze: 5-7 (year 3) program tanked
Every other coach except 1 has been fired for blowing up the program and massively tanking at the end of their tenure
The only coach you all fired for not being competitive enough in your eyes was Gus, and he has a worse winning percentage than Heup.
Auburn will always be the little program trying to throw punches at bigger programs, and instead, they whiff and fall
This post was edited on 9/3/26 at 10:41 am
Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:41 am to John somers
quote:
You started out talking about each teams 'floor expectation', and then instead talked about something completely different, i.e. what is the lowest number of wins for each team without triggering a hot seat for the coach.
Yes. Those are the same things. What is your team's floor of acceptability without leading to major fan uproar. That's it.
quote:
Again, stupid thread.
Feel free not to click on it.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 10:45 am to VFL67
quote:
You are the one on here saying that if Golesh goes 7-5 in year one, it will be a success, given what he inherited.
Yes. Just as Heupel's Year 1 was a relative success.
quote:
Outside of a successful year 1, he has had one other 5-loss season
Well that's kinda the whole point. Losing five games in Year 5 is way different than losing five games in Year 1.
Every coach in Auburn history who lost five games in Season 5 or later either was already fired or was majorly on the hot seat... especially if they had zero hardware to show for. Tennessee fans on the other hand are completely ecstatic about Heupel's 5-loss season with zero wins against ranked opponents. This is how we are different.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 11:05 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Tennessee: 7-5
The Vols went 7-5 last season without beating a ranked opponent and they still act like Heupel is the greatest coach since Knute Rockne. Obviously they will put up with this record.
quote:
Auburn: 7-5
A 7-5 season would not create excitement but it would be a nice page-turner from the Harsin/Freeze era... wild give Golesh something to build upon for 2027.
So...Tennessee had a QB that transferred in a Month after Spring practice and went 7-5...so, 7-5 is a reasonable floor this season.
Auburn went 5-7, but their floor is 7-5 because Golesh will use it to build upon for 2027. In reality...their floor should be 7-5 because they have the weakest schedule in the SEC per Phil Steele's 2026 College football strength of schedule rankings.
Pre-Season SOS:
1. Texas
4. Arkansas
5. Oklahoma
8. Mississippi State
10. Florida
11. Kentucky
15. LSU
16. Ole Miss
18. Georgia
19. Alabama
21. Missouri
22. Tennessee
23. Vanderbilt
25. South Carolina
28. Texas A&M
35. Auburn
Compare that to last year's rankings LINK
2. Florida
4. Arkansas
7. LSU
8. Alabama
9. Kentucky
10. South Carolina
11. Auburn
12. Texas
14. Texas A&M
17. Oklahoma
20 Mississippi St.
23. Georgia
32. Vanderbilt
40. Missouri
44. Tennessee
54. Ole Miss
Sure, the coaching staff changed...but the schedule got (from early comparison to the same time last year) significantly easier.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 11:22 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Yes. Those are the same things.
No. They are not.
One is an actual analysis, whereby, based on skill level and schedule toughness (and other intangibles), a probable ceiling and floor can be determined for any given team in any given season. It is totally unrelated to a coach's seat being hot or not.
The other is stupid smack, without analysis, based on OP's narrow minded and shallow understanding of football.
They are not the same, and you're an idiot.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 11:24 am to John somers
p.s. Auburn sucks and will always suck.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 11:28 am to madmaxvol
For some reason Vol fans are incapable of understanding that reasonable people have different expectations for Year 1 of a head coach and Year 5 and 6 for a coach.
It's mind boggling.
It's mind boggling.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 11:28 am to John somers
quote:
They are not the same, and you're an idiot.
Again, feel free to not click on it. Go enjoy a pedicure.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 11:30 am to John somers
quote:
p.s. Auburn sucks and will always suck.
And yet Auburn is 44-39-2 against the Gators all-time. So what does that make Florida?
LOL
Posted on 9/3/26 at 11:37 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Every coach in Auburn history who lost five games in Season 5 or later either was already fired or was majorly on the hot seat
That's just not true lol
Mike Donahue in year 11: 2-5 (not fired) coached another 3 years
Jack Meagher in year 5: 4-5-1 (not fired) coached for another 5 years
Shug Jordan in year 15: 5-5-1 (not fired) coached for another 10 years
Pat Dye in year 11: 5-6-1 (not fired) coached for another year
Tommy Tuberville in year 5: 8-5 (not fired) coached for another 5 years
Gus Malzhan in year 6: 8-5 (not fired) coached for another 2 years
quote:
Tennessee fans on the other hand are completely ecstatic about Heupel
That's not true. But acting like Auburn would fire a coach who just had 8 wins is insane. Auburn has never fired a coach who just won 8 games
quote:
This is how we are different.
lol no this is how we are different
This post was edited on 9/3/26 at 11:43 am
Posted on 9/3/26 at 11:39 am to AUTiger789
Unless Ole Miss sustains a ton of injuries, 8-4 will not be impressive. It may be a floor record but Pete would be feeling some heat. If Trindad or several players go down and that leads to 8-4, different story.
Posted on 9/3/26 at 12:05 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Our floor is 9-3.
I think we'll be better than that, but OU/@bama/@OM are daunting regardless of how good I think we might be.
I agree that this would be the floor. I think 10-2 is reasonable, but expect 11-1.
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