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Torvik's "Wins Above Bubble" aka how the committee seeded (w/ some exceptions....)
Posted on 3/15/21 at 7:50 pm
Posted on 3/15/21 at 7:50 pm
Torvik's metric gives a pretty decent idea of how a team performed and what their strength of resume is.
It also becomes very obvious that the selection committee HEAVILY used this metric in their seeding
Torvik Wins Above Bubble
Rank - Team (WAB) (NCAAT Seed)
#1 - Illinois (+8.9) (1)
#2 - Gonzaga (+8.5) (1)
#3 - Michigan (+7.2) (1)
#4 - Alabama (+6.8) (2)
#5 - Baylor (+6.6) (1)
#6 - Ohio State (+6.0) (2)
#7 - Iowa (+5.6) (2)
#8 - Arkansas (+4.6) (3)
#8 - Oklahoma State (+4.6) (4)
#10 - Kansas (+4.2) (3)
#10 - Texas (+4.2) (3)
#25 - Tennessee (+2.4) (5)
#26 - LSU (+2.4) (8)
#31 - Missouri (+2.1) (9)
#36 - Florida (+1.4) (7)
#69 - Ole Miss (-1.3) (NIT)
#84 - Auburn (-2.2)
#84 - Georgia (-2.2)
#98 - Mississippi St (-3.0) (NIT)
#127 - Kentucky (-3.9)
#132 - Texas A&M (-4.1)
#160 - South Carolina (-5.5)
#168 - Vanderbilt (-5.8)
It also becomes very obvious that the selection committee HEAVILY used this metric in their seeding
Torvik Wins Above Bubble
Rank - Team (WAB) (NCAAT Seed)
#1 - Illinois (+8.9) (1)
#2 - Gonzaga (+8.5) (1)
#3 - Michigan (+7.2) (1)
#4 - Alabama (+6.8) (2)
#5 - Baylor (+6.6) (1)
#6 - Ohio State (+6.0) (2)
#7 - Iowa (+5.6) (2)
#8 - Arkansas (+4.6) (3)
#8 - Oklahoma State (+4.6) (4)
#10 - Kansas (+4.2) (3)
#10 - Texas (+4.2) (3)
#25 - Tennessee (+2.4) (5)
#26 - LSU (+2.4) (8)
#31 - Missouri (+2.1) (9)
#36 - Florida (+1.4) (7)
#69 - Ole Miss (-1.3) (NIT)
#84 - Auburn (-2.2)
#84 - Georgia (-2.2)
#98 - Mississippi St (-3.0) (NIT)
#127 - Kentucky (-3.9)
#132 - Texas A&M (-4.1)
#160 - South Carolina (-5.5)
#168 - Vanderbilt (-5.8)
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Posted on 3/15/21 at 7:54 pm to SummerOfGeorge
It's pretty clear Florida's win @ West Virginia basically vaulted them 2 seeds. Nothing else makes sense.
Florida
#36 WAB
#37 KenPom
#31 NET
5 Q1 wins
3 Q2 wins
8 Q1/Q2 wins
1 Q3 loss
#112 OOC SOS
#50 Overall SOS
LSU
#26 WAB
#29 KenPom
#28 NET
5 Q1 wins
3 Q2 wins
8 Q1/Q2 wins
0 Q3 loss
#75 OOC SOS
#6 Overall SOS
Florida
#36 WAB
#37 KenPom
#31 NET
5 Q1 wins
3 Q2 wins
8 Q1/Q2 wins
1 Q3 loss
#112 OOC SOS
#50 Overall SOS
LSU
#26 WAB
#29 KenPom
#28 NET
5 Q1 wins
3 Q2 wins
8 Q1/Q2 wins
0 Q3 loss
#75 OOC SOS
#6 Overall SOS
This post was edited on 3/15/21 at 7:57 pm
Posted on 3/15/21 at 7:55 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#25 - Tennessee (+2.4) (5)
#26 - LSU (+2.4) (8)
#31 - Missouri (+2.1) (9)
#36 - Florida (+1.4) (7)
Yet Tennessee was 3 seeds better and Florida a seed better than LSU.
Posted on 3/15/21 at 7:56 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Except Oklahoma State. They got screwed.
Posted on 3/15/21 at 9:14 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It's pretty clear Florida's win @ West Virginia basically vaulted them 2 seeds. Nothing else makes sense.
PEAR
Posted on 3/15/21 at 10:26 pm to SummerOfGeorge
So your post shows LSU got the shaft on seeding. Ok
Posted on 3/15/21 at 10:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
LSU choked away a couple games that would easily put us in that 6th seed range
But those numbers are rough to look at
But those numbers are rough to look at
Posted on 3/16/21 at 7:17 am to SummerOfGeorge
The formula is something like SOR(.5) + Kenpom(.2) + conference bias(.15) + Bad loss avoidance (.15) = final seed rank.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 7:59 am to beaverfever
quote:
The formula is something like SOR(.5) + Kenpom(.2) + conference bias(.15) + Bad loss avoidance (.15) = final seed rank.
Interesting.
Are you basing that on some legit formula from the selection committee, or just speculating?
Posted on 3/16/21 at 8:13 am to paperwasp
Haha no I have no inside info I just keep up with the process every year and I know they punish teams for bad losses. The baseline is definitely your SOR. Slight adjustments after those two items IMO are basically just biases for or against the conference or school.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 8:23 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It's pretty clear Florida's win @ West Virginia basically vaulted them 2 seeds. Nothing else makes sense.
The committee for some odd reason has WVU has a high 3 seed.
Basically UF has only 1 path to make it far in the tournament, and that is Tre Mann going full Carmelo Anthony for 6 straight games.
Which is not going to happen if coaches watch the physical Tennessee defense on him.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 8:37 am to beaverfever
quote:
Haha no I have no inside info I just keep up with the process every year and I know they punish teams for bad losses. The baseline is definitely your SOR. Slight adjustments after those two items IMO are basically just biases for or against the conference or school.
That really is interesting though.
I'm sure they do have a formula like this as a starting metric at least, and it probably could be deduced with enough data.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 8:45 am to Sun God
quote:
LSU choked away a couple games that would easily put us in that 6th seed range
But those numbers are rough to look at
3 games stand out for LSU. Blown game to Tech, losses to Kentucky and Georgia are likely what hurt.
Win those three and LSU is probably a 4 seed.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 9:03 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It's pretty clear Florida's win @ West Virginia basically vaulted them 2 seeds. Nothing else makes sense.
Big wins are always overvalued because they are the few games a year that people actually watch. B12 vs SEC challenge was watched by more people so more value was put on those games.
Tenner is the perfect example of that. They haven't been playing that well at all lately but the Kansas win got them a 5 seed.
Neither has Florida but that W. Virginia win vaulted them up a few seeds.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 9:09 am to boXerrumble
quote:
The committee for some odd reason has WVU has a high 3 seed.
quote:
Except Oklahoma State. They got screwed.
Lunardi mentioned this...
From ESPN:
Did the committee lose its cable signal while Oklahoma State was playing? The Cowboys were much closer to being a 2-seed than the No. 4 they received. West Virginia, whom the Cowboys beat twice in the past two weeks, got a No. 3 seed despite trailing Oklahoma State by 14 spots in the NET. This is a clear seeding error.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 10:09 am to Choupique19
quote:
Yet Tennessee was 3 seeds better and Florida a seed better than LSU.
You clowns lost to Saint Louis.
Posted on 3/16/21 at 11:33 am to OldPete
Oklahoma State got punished for getting swept by TCU. WVU’s losses were all to top teams. A loss to a one or two seed is basically irrelevant.
IMO, the strangest seeding was Houston as a two seed. They had two bad losses and very few wins to redeem themselves. There’s no way you can justify Houston as a two seed and simultaneously say that Memphis isn’t a tournament team. Houston’s brand is apparently improving because they had a 3/4 seed resume at best. But again, Kenpom liked them so they got a boost there. Apparently one win against Texas Tech is the difference in Houston as a 2 seed and Loyola as an 8 seed. Otherwise their resumes are the same to me.
IMO, the strangest seeding was Houston as a two seed. They had two bad losses and very few wins to redeem themselves. There’s no way you can justify Houston as a two seed and simultaneously say that Memphis isn’t a tournament team. Houston’s brand is apparently improving because they had a 3/4 seed resume at best. But again, Kenpom liked them so they got a boost there. Apparently one win against Texas Tech is the difference in Houston as a 2 seed and Loyola as an 8 seed. Otherwise their resumes are the same to me.
This post was edited on 3/16/21 at 11:39 am
Posted on 3/16/21 at 11:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
#25 - Tennessee (+2.4) (5)
#26 - LSU (+2.4) (8)
So LSU had the same Wins Above Bubble that UT had and finished higher in the standings and won the head to head and was only one spot behind UT yet they get a 5 seed and we get an 8. Hmmmmm.
There surely is no personal vendetta against us in the eyes of the committee. A load of crock shite is what it is.
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