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The Transfer Portal has been the great equalizer over the past few seasons...
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:33 pm
Prior to the advent of the portal and the expansion of the CFP, it was an undeniable fact that if a team had the Jimmy's and the Joe's, no matter how well you schemed as a team with inferior talent, the Jimmys and Joes triumphed over the X's and the O's. Saban was among the first to really get this and dominated on the recruiting trail. That domination ended up showing up on the field. Other schools followed and it became a routine data point that if you had at least one Top 10 recruiting class on your roster, your chances of winning a national championship were better than those programs that did not.
That calculus has now changed. With the advent of the transfer portal in 2021, it didn't take long for the first team to buck that trend (2023 Michigan) to come along. Now in 2025 there is only one team left standing in the CFP with a Top 10 roster (Oregon). And while they relied heavily on the transfer portal (over 40% of its roster is made up of transfers), they aren't anywhere near the likes of Ole Miss, Indiana, and Miami. All three of those schools have rosters that are over 50% transfer players. I think Indiana and Ole Miss are both in the sixty-percentile but I'll need to re-check that.
Bottom line, the transfer portal has definitely added a new wrinkle to the game that wasn't there before and is allowing less talented, but more experienced players to lead non-traditional schools to heights yet unseen. It'll be interesting to watch this going forward and also to see if reform closes this "loophole" for these smaller schools.
That calculus has now changed. With the advent of the transfer portal in 2021, it didn't take long for the first team to buck that trend (2023 Michigan) to come along. Now in 2025 there is only one team left standing in the CFP with a Top 10 roster (Oregon). And while they relied heavily on the transfer portal (over 40% of its roster is made up of transfers), they aren't anywhere near the likes of Ole Miss, Indiana, and Miami. All three of those schools have rosters that are over 50% transfer players. I think Indiana and Ole Miss are both in the sixty-percentile but I'll need to re-check that.
Bottom line, the transfer portal has definitely added a new wrinkle to the game that wasn't there before and is allowing less talented, but more experienced players to lead non-traditional schools to heights yet unseen. It'll be interesting to watch this going forward and also to see if reform closes this "loophole" for these smaller schools.
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Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:37 pm to RollTide1987
Experience wins in today’s college football. You have to have the perfect balance of experience and talent but Cignetti understood that he didn’t need a team full of five/four stars when he’s got a team full of fifth and sixth year seniors.
It’s no coincidence that the remaining teams for the most part dominated the portal and used it to acquire key pieces.
It’s no coincidence that the remaining teams for the most part dominated the portal and used it to acquire key pieces.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:37 pm to RollTide1987
Unlimited transfers without sitting out is an abomination, but it has provided parity.
They need to put guardrails on it. Maybe 1 transfer without sitting out, or you must stay at a school for 2 years once enrolled, or something like that.
ETA:
Players wanted to be treated like professionals. They now get big NIL dollars to reward their talents and popularity. However, pros sign contracts. Imagine if players could just switch NFL teams every year?
Continuity in rosters is important for the game as much as parity is, IMO. Without any roster continuity, fan bases will lose devotion. I know that has happened with me and LSU.
They need to put guardrails on it. Maybe 1 transfer without sitting out, or you must stay at a school for 2 years once enrolled, or something like that.
ETA:
Players wanted to be treated like professionals. They now get big NIL dollars to reward their talents and popularity. However, pros sign contracts. Imagine if players could just switch NFL teams every year?
Continuity in rosters is important for the game as much as parity is, IMO. Without any roster continuity, fan bases will lose devotion. I know that has happened with me and LSU.
This post was edited on 1/2/26 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:37 pm to RollTide1987
Schools that still rely mostly/exclusively on recruiting are still dealing with the ebbs and flows of roster building that you had before NIL, but now it's kicked into overdrive.
You'd have years where your offense was there and your defense wasn't, and vice versa based on hits and misses, attention, etc. Then every few years everything might come together all at once.
Now you have that plus some of those guys who would have been the next man up left chasing earlier playing time or a bigger check.
But let's not let 3 teams having success with it this year overshadow the numerous teams who use similar tactics and flame out. Florida State comes to mind for the past two years.
You'd have years where your offense was there and your defense wasn't, and vice versa based on hits and misses, attention, etc. Then every few years everything might come together all at once.
Now you have that plus some of those guys who would have been the next man up left chasing earlier playing time or a bigger check.
But let's not let 3 teams having success with it this year overshadow the numerous teams who use similar tactics and flame out. Florida State comes to mind for the past two years.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:39 pm to RollTide1987
If I'm a head coach right now, I'd lean heavily on the portal as well. If I'm having to pay 800k to a CB, I'd rather pay it to a player that's already proven it at the college level than a kid coming out of high school.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:40 pm to CatfishJohn
quote:
They need to put guardrails on it. Maybe 1 transfer without sitting out, or you must stay at a school for 2 years once enrolled, or something like that.
Any limitation they try to put in place someone will sue them about, and the current SCOTUS has shown a clear preference to the player over the school.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:42 pm to skrayper
quote:
Any limitation they try to put in place someone will sue them about, and the current SCOTUS has shown a clear preference to the player over the school.
That's why they just need to make these guys school employees and have them sign a contract that allows them to share in the profits from these TV deals. That's where their salaries should come from. They should sign a two-year contract with stiff penalties imposed on them should they try to transfer early.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:44 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
That's why they just need to make these guys school employees and have them sign a contract that allows them to share in the profits from these TV deals. That's where their salaries should come from. They should sign a two-year contract with stiff penalties imposed on them should they try to transfer early.
You're going to have to overpay them for a longer commitment as it stands now. Or give them a performance based "out" where they can renegotiate if they play well. But yeah I think this is the way..but who will be brave/stupid enough to do it?
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:46 pm to skrayper
P4 conferences can maybe get around the NCAA ruling. Also NIL contracts can be structured a certain way with clawbacks, etc.
There has to be some sort of guardrail.
There has to be some sort of guardrail.
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:48 pm to RollTide1987
Indiana is in another category when it comes to what they did this season in the portal. Everyone thought since they were losing so many transfers he brought in the year before that the team would take a big step back and he went out and got a portal class with only about 3 guys they had to pay big money for I think, The others doing the work are transfers that were just rated high 3 stars even in their transfer ranking which you can get a few of those for the same money a basic 4 star transfer will cost you. That coach must have a real good eye for talent that will work in college even if their physical numbers arent the type to bring NFL hype.
This post was edited on 1/2/26 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:50 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
I'd rather pay it to a player that's already proven it at the college level than a kid coming out of high school.
This is common sense and I'm with you here but don't ever think that a program won't spend a stupid amount of money to bring in a high school "phenom" either because of FOMO or just to keep a close rival or other team from getting them.
The money these people are spending is evidently nothing to them.
This post was edited on 1/2/26 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 1/2/26 at 12:58 pm to RollTide1987
When teams (particularly in the South) could stockpile talent on the bench for 4 years and develop/compete for spots in one program, the less talented teams could not overcome that disparity. Now, those bluechippers are going to 4 different schools and are spread out all over the country.
I truly believe this was by design to allow college football to regain national appeal and break the strangle one region had on it. Call me a conspiracy theorist.
Now? You better have older, more cerebral players with a few blue chips sprinkled in. The game is becoming more cerebral and less talent based.
It’s very similar to college basketball coming out of the one-and-done phase. Older, headier teams started outdoing the younger blue chips simply looking for payday.
I truly believe this was by design to allow college football to regain national appeal and break the strangle one region had on it. Call me a conspiracy theorist.
Now? You better have older, more cerebral players with a few blue chips sprinkled in. The game is becoming more cerebral and less talent based.
It’s very similar to college basketball coming out of the one-and-done phase. Older, headier teams started outdoing the younger blue chips simply looking for payday.
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