re: The computers pick South Carolina over Georgia.

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Yep..all those low scoring UGA SEC wins..42, 53, 48, 41, 31..

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Stop being disrespectful and talking to Lonnie like that

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Their model indicated the fewer the yards SC gains the more points they score. Seriously.
Their algorithm might have few flaws. I love their weekly YouTube predictions though, good stuff.

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Their model (as far as I can tell) doesn't account for how many short fields we've had due to our high turnover margin. When you need less yards to hit the end zone, yeah your offensive stats won't be quite as impressive. The game that we didn't capitalize on short fields with was most definitely UK. We had 3 takeaways in the first half that put us on the UK side of the 50. Score on just 2 of those chances (not to mention the field goal problems) and we're 7-1.

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Could potentially be calculating short fields/turnovers? Otherwise, yeah... probably flawed model.

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As I said before, yeah it's not taking this into account in a meaningful way which is why his model is doing that.

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I didn't say uga didn't score a lot of points. I said that a run first game plan inherently shortens the game. UGA has been fortunate that they've gotten lots of explosive run plays.

But look at ND game as a preview to this one.

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You did say that such a game plan leads to low scoring affairs..it hasn't for us in SEC play.

You think SC has a defense as good as ND or you predicting us having a couple of TDs called back?

And what's "fortunate" about those explosive plays on runs? When you bring 8 in the box (and SC will after we force them to) there aren't many folks to stop a back who makes in past the LOS.

No. Because of similar game plans

I just ran my silly model, which uses a lot of the same ideas as theirs (production vs opponent average), but I guess they don't use any sort of Yards Per Point measurement or something. Anyway, I came up with this

GEORGIA - 29
SOUTH CAROLINA - 9

Georgia
429 Total Yards (6.85 YPP)
164 Pass Yards (10.8 YPA)
265 Rush Yards (5.6 YPA)

South Carolina
155 Total Yards (2.53 YPP)
108 Pass Yards (3.6 YPA)
47 Rush Yards (1.5 YPA)


South Carolina has run for less YPA than their opponent averages in their last 5 P5 games. They have passed for less YPA in their last 3 P5 games. Combine that with UGA's defense being stingy and it's not a pretty picture.

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No. Because of similar game plans

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Everybody that has defended Georgia has had the same basic plan. ND was more successful because of their talent.

Ruthless computers won’t even give the dawgs 24 hours to celebrate their 1st week 1 CFP ranking National Championship before they piss on their parade

The UGA offensive stats are about what we do against the conference.

I don't know scar enough to know what they average.

We typically put up more points because of favorable field position and pretty dang good coaching (1st and 3rd quarters are dominant point differentials. We haven't had a lot of missed opportunities at those times ).

Pretty cool. Thanks for running it.

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I don't know scar enough to know what they average.

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They have an above average defense for sure. My guess is Georgia won't rip off as many huge plays, but that they will start wearing USCe down once USCe starts going 3 and out.