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Strength of Schedule rankings through week 13

Posted on 11/25/25 at 12:41 pm
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
36247 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 12:41 pm
Using the FEI ELS metric. Pretty much the only SoS I consider valid since it's not based on averages.

Strength of schedule ratings represent the number of losses a team two standard deviations above average would expect to have against the schedule of opponents.

Only for games played thus far, doesn't count future games. Listed in order by overall rank, expected losses to the right.

#3 Florida - 2.75
#5 South Carolina - 2.67
#7 Texas - 2.53
#8 Alabama - 2.51
#9 Missouri - 2.43
#10 Arkansas - 2.42
#10 Kentucky - 2.42
#12 Auburn - 2.36
#14 Oklahoma -2.34
#18 LSU - 2.15
#19 Miss St - 2.09
#22 Georgia - 1.84
#23 Tennessee - 1.83
#31 Vanderbilt - 1.57
#32 Texas A&M - 1.50
#36 Ole Miss - 1.47

Other Notables:

#25 Oregon - 1.77
#29 BYU - 1.62
#33 Indiana - 1.50
#34 Notre Dame - 1.48
#51 Texas Tech - 1.22
#53 Miami - 1.15
#56 Ohio St - 1.04

That Ole Miss schedule gonna get Lane paid. Vandy and Texas A&M also benefit from easier schedules, however still better than the majority of contenders from other conferences.

Ohio St finally gets to 1 expected loss on their schedule, but still has a pathetic schedule. That shite is G5 level.

Alabama is the only team that has a top10 schedule and is also a top10 team.

Oklahoma is next on the list as the only top10 team with a top15 schedule.

Georgia and Oregon round it out with schedules in the top25.

No other contender has a SoS in the top25 - unless Texas pulls off a miracle as a 3 loss team.

Posted by theballguy
Bama Park
Member since Oct 2011
28480 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 1:43 pm to
SOS matters to the committee unless the team is Alabama
This post was edited on 11/25/25 at 1:44 pm
Posted by Whentheleveebreaks
Member since Aug 2020
2753 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 1:56 pm to
Will this be your moral victory when Auburn knocks you out of playoff contention?
Posted by Boomer65
Norman
Member since Sep 2022
1037 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

SOS matters to the committee unless the team is Alabama


You forgot Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Taco Tech. I might be forgetting few others.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
34154 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

#8 Alabama - 2.51

quote:

#14 Oklahoma -2.34


Only potential playoff teams in the top 20 in SOS.

quote:

#51 Texas Tech - 1.22
#53 Miami - 1.15
#56 Ohio St - 1.04


fricking pathetic.
Posted by halfadolla50
Member since Oct 2015
513 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

Ohio St finally gets to 1 expected loss on their schedule, but still has a pathetic schedule. That shite is G5 level.


Ohio State had the preseason number 1, 2, 12 and 14 on their schedule. Not their fault everyone shite the bed. the only thing they can control is dominate everyone and they have. 10-1 against the spread and the 1 loss was a late touchdown against the 3rd string defense.
Posted by BuckeyeGoon
Member since Jan 2025
862 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

Only potential playoff teams in the top 20 in SOS.

Good teams hurt their own strength of schedule by handing out so many loses to the teams they play. Its not a coincidence that both Alabama and Oklahoma have a questionable loss and a higher strength of schedule than the other top ranked teams. The key to a great strength of schedule is losing a lot, so that your opponents have a lot more wins.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
34154 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

Good teams hurt their own strength of schedule by handing out so many loses to the teams they play. Its not a coincidence that both Alabama and Oklahoma have a questionable loss and a higher strength of schedule than the other top ranked teams. The key to a great strength of schedule is losing a lot, so that your opponents have a lot more wins.





Posted by Gifman
Member since Jan 2021
17001 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:22 pm to
Pretty sure ole Miss has had the weakest SOS for two years straight
Posted by MrGumshoes
I see you
Member since Dec 2024
850 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:25 pm to
Did Georgia beat Bama? ??
Posted by Soonerd78
Member since Sep 2024
2547 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:25 pm to
OUs real sos is 5th or 6th I believe .
This post was edited on 11/25/25 at 2:26 pm
Posted by bayou85
Concordia
Member since Sep 2016
10730 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:35 pm to
quote:

#32 Texas A&M - 1.50


How are they this high? Texas is the only SEC team they will play this year with more than 3 conference wins.
Posted by Colonel Ingus
Houston
Member since Nov 2021
5608 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

How are they this high? Texas is the only SEC team they will play this year with more than 3 conference wins.

Because all of the teams on our schedule that were supposed to be good this year quit and fired their coaches after we blew them out. That’s not A&M’s fault.
This post was edited on 11/25/25 at 2:41 pm
Posted by Boomer65
Norman
Member since Sep 2022
1037 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

Good teams hurt their own strength of schedule by handing out so many loses to the teams they play. Its not a coincidence that both Alabama and Oklahoma have a questionable loss and a higher strength of schedule than the other top ranked teams. The key to a great strength of schedule is losing a lot, so that your opponents have a lot more wins.


Are you retarded? Genuine question.
Posted by bayou85
Concordia
Member since Sep 2016
10730 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:44 pm to
quote:

Because all of the teams on our schedule that were supposed to be good this year quit and fired their coaches after we blew them out. That’s not A&M’s fault.


No, they were just bad teams. Ole Miss had a harder schedule (not hard though) and is below A&M
Posted by BuckeyeGoon
Member since Jan 2025
862 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:46 pm to
Its honestly not that hard to understand. If two 12-0 teams play, who's strength of schedule improves? The team who gets to add a 13-0 team to their opponents played or the team that gets to add a 12-1 team to their opponents played? Now apply that same logic to every game played throughout the course of a season.
Posted by scottydoesntknow
Member since Nov 2023
9582 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:49 pm to
Id love to know how many SEC team that if they played OSU schedule, wouldnt be at least 10-2. I think all 16 would be
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
10685 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:51 pm to
Looks like A&M @ ND is the biggest OOC win across the country this season. That’s boosting the SOS.
Posted by bfpri
Member since Jul 2014
689 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:53 pm to
I agree . This is too high . A&M has only played one ranked team . Seems sus
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
36247 posts
Posted on 11/25/25 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

Pretty sure ole Miss has had the weakest SOS for two years straight


I keep track of them by the week, so luckily I have the answer.

Texas had the easiest one last year. Ole Miss had a pretty easy one too. In terms of the expected losses, their schedule last year was even weaker than this year.

One thing I notice is that schedule difficulty is much higher for the majority of SEC teams this year. Probably means the SEC as a whole is stronger this year.

2024:

1. Florida 2.71
3. Oklahoma 2.48
4. Kentucky 2.47
5. Georgia 2.36
8. Miss St 1.96
11. Arkansas 1.89
12. LSU 1.86
12. Vandy 1.86
14. USC 1.71
16. Alabama 1.66
24. Texas A&M 1.39
25. Ole Miss 1.37
28. Tennessee 1.28
31. Missouri 1.22
37. Auburn 1.09
40. Texas 1.04
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