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re: SOS according to the CFP committee
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:29 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:29 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
SoS has not mattered in ages.
2
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:45 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
I think the playoff should be fairly straight forward in terms of seeding unless there are some unexpected upsets. I think the below teams control their own destiny for the Playoff, in order of likelihood.
Teams that Control their own destiny for the playoff:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Michigan State
5. Oklahoma
6. Wake Forest
7. Alabama
8. Iowa
9. Auburn
Those are the only teams that I believe can rest assured that if they win out, they'll be in the Playoff no matter what... meaning they don't need any help from other teams. As far as I can tell, those are the teams that still control their own destiny to win the conference title of either the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, or ACC.... with the exception of Big 12 and ACC teams that already have 1 loss. I don't think a 1-loss champ from those leagues are likely to make the playoff. It's possible but I don't think they control their destiny even if they win out and win their league (i.e. Pitt, Oklahoma State, Baylor).
All of the above are currently undefeated or have just 1 loss except for Auburn. The only reason Auburn makes the list is because they still control their own destiny to win the SEC, and the SEC Champ is going to make the playoff even with 2 losses.
Teams that could still certainly make the playoff but need a bit of help:
10. Cincinnati
11. Notre Dame
12. Oregon
13. Ole Miss
14. Kentucky
15. Texas A&M
16. Baylor
17. Oklahoma State
18. Pitt
All of these teams can win out and have a shot of making the playoff, but they'd have to depend upon others losing in order to have a path.
It just so happens that these 18 teams make up the current AP Top 18.
I think Cincinnati has a very good shot of making the playoff. I think the SEC Champ and the Big 10 Champ are basically assured of a spot ahead of Cincinnati. I think an unbeaten Cincinnati likely goes ahead of a 1-loss Big 12 or ACC Champ, especially if Notre Dame wins out. The only other team that could mess things up for the Bearcats is Oregon..... if Ohio State and Oregon both win out, then I think Oregon has a very real shot of making the playoff. The Ducks won't go in front of an unbeaten Oklahoma or maybe even an unbeaten Wake Forest, but they would go ahead of an unbeaten Cincinnati, IMO.
Teams that Control their own destiny for the playoff:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Michigan State
5. Oklahoma
6. Wake Forest
7. Alabama
8. Iowa
9. Auburn
Those are the only teams that I believe can rest assured that if they win out, they'll be in the Playoff no matter what... meaning they don't need any help from other teams. As far as I can tell, those are the teams that still control their own destiny to win the conference title of either the SEC, Big 10, Big 12, or ACC.... with the exception of Big 12 and ACC teams that already have 1 loss. I don't think a 1-loss champ from those leagues are likely to make the playoff. It's possible but I don't think they control their destiny even if they win out and win their league (i.e. Pitt, Oklahoma State, Baylor).
All of the above are currently undefeated or have just 1 loss except for Auburn. The only reason Auburn makes the list is because they still control their own destiny to win the SEC, and the SEC Champ is going to make the playoff even with 2 losses.
Teams that could still certainly make the playoff but need a bit of help:
10. Cincinnati
11. Notre Dame
12. Oregon
13. Ole Miss
14. Kentucky
15. Texas A&M
16. Baylor
17. Oklahoma State
18. Pitt
All of these teams can win out and have a shot of making the playoff, but they'd have to depend upon others losing in order to have a path.
It just so happens that these 18 teams make up the current AP Top 18.
I think Cincinnati has a very good shot of making the playoff. I think the SEC Champ and the Big 10 Champ are basically assured of a spot ahead of Cincinnati. I think an unbeaten Cincinnati likely goes ahead of a 1-loss Big 12 or ACC Champ, especially if Notre Dame wins out. The only other team that could mess things up for the Bearcats is Oregon..... if Ohio State and Oregon both win out, then I think Oregon has a very real shot of making the playoff. The Ducks won't go in front of an unbeaten Oklahoma or maybe even an unbeaten Wake Forest, but they would go ahead of an unbeaten Cincinnati, IMO.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:46 pm to 3down10
quote:
It's disappointing they use such a shitty version of that metric.
Whether you agree with it or not, it's the only one that matters.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:49 pm to BHMKyle
How do you have Bama #7 on a list of teams that control their own destiny? They win out, they are in 100%.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:51 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
Let's all just take a moment to appreciate the fact that Cincinnati is actually going to have an easier path to the playoff in the Big 12 than they do now as a G5 program. 
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:55 pm to RoscoeHarper
quote:
How do you have Bama #7 on a list of teams that control their own destiny? They win out, they are in 100%.
He said teams that both control their own destiny and the likelihood of them fulfilling that destiny.
He's a UGA fan. For Alabama to control it's own destiny, they'd have to beat UGA and he understandably doesn't think or want that to happen.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:56 pm to BHMKyle
quote:A 2 loss Auburn or 1 loss OleMiss' chances for the CFP will be determined after Saturday.
All of the above are currently undefeated or have just 1 loss except for Auburn. The only reason Auburn makes the list is because they still control their own destiny to win the SEC, and the SEC Champ is going to make the playoff even with 2 losses.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:59 pm to ronricks
quote:
What is your Best win? Clemson? Kentucky? Who?
We kicked Auburn's arse pretty good.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 12:59 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
quote:
#Georgia 29th
#Alabama 36th
If, and I mean if, these two teams meet in the SECCG, both of these numbers will fall.
IDK if anyone else has too much left to affect it that greatly, except maybe Ohio State and Michigan?
(Certainly not Cincinnati.)
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:00 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
quote:
Whether you agree with it or not, it's the only one that matters.
Can't argue that, can only point out that using averages and win% is about the worst possible SoS metric you can have.
You would think that these people in charge, the so called "experts" who decide and set up these things could do better, but really it kind of highlights how stupid the people we put in charge of things really are. They don't know shite, they are only there for making money deals.
On the other hand, it's not like they really give a shite about SoS anymore anyway. They don't even consider it unless records are even to start with.
This post was edited on 10/25/21 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:01 pm to 3down10
You bitch about metrics more than any other posters on the trant.
Congrats, i guess.
Congrats, i guess.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:05 pm to ronricks
quote:It'd have to be the Auburn or Kentucky arse kicking wouldn't it?
I'm aware of that. If you were trying to sell me on Georgia's resume up to this point who would you point to as your best win?
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:05 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Teams that Control their own destiny for the playoff:
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Michigan State
5. Oklahoma
6. Wake Forest
7. Alabama
8. Iowa
9. Auburn
You forgot Oregon, OK State and Baylor as they fully control their own destinies. Oregon wont be left out with that @ OSU win and a 1 loss Big 12 Champion is 100% getting in.
This post was edited on 10/25/21 at 1:06 pm
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:10 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
Georgia will finish in the top of this group by a large margin after playing in the SECCG.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:12 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
They left a 0 off of Cincinnati's
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:13 pm to RoscoeHarper
quote:
How do you have Bama #7 on a list of teams that control their own destiny?
Because they already have a loss and their path includes having to beat Auburn in Jordan-Hare (which always seems to be a problem for them, especially with the West on the line) and then they have to beat Georgia in Atlanta the very next week. That's a very difficult path.
I think the Big 10 teams have a much easier path since whoever emerges from the East gets to play Iowa in their conference championship game as opposed to Georgia.
Would you like to argue that playing Iowa is more difficult?
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:15 pm to Prof
quote:
SoS has not mattered in ages.
This.
At the end of the day, the committee just picks teams based on bias and cites the "eye test."
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:15 pm to JustGetItRight
quote:
He's a UGA fan. For Alabama to control it's own destiny, they'd have to beat UGA and he understandably doesn't think or want that to happen.
Bingo. The chances of Bama winning at Auburn and against Georgia in Atlanta are likely smaller than any of those Big 10 East teams winning out. Certainly a more difficult path than Oklahoma or Wake Forest winning out.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:16 pm to Gator Fever
quote:
Oregon wont be left out with that @ OSU win and a 1 loss Big 12 Champion is 100% getting in.
Why?
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:18 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
Why?
I agree with Kaiser. A one-loss Big 12 champ would need some help to get in.
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