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re: SOS according to the CFP committee
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:19 pm to RT1941
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:19 pm to RT1941
quote:
A 2 loss Auburn or 1 loss OleMiss' chances for the CFP will be determined after Saturday.
Kind of. Ole Miss would still need help.
Auburn's path is crazy difficult and very unlikely, but nevertheless, if they beat Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Miss St., S. Carolina, Bama, and Georgia.... they are for sure in.
Ole Miss could beat Auburn and win out, but I think they still need a bunch of help mainly because Bama is still the favorite to win the division. They would need to win out and hope Bama lost to Auburn, Arky, or LSU.
Certainly possible, but they do not control their own destiny.
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Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:20 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
Why?
Because Baylor or Oklahoma State would have 1 or 2 wins over Oklahoma at that point and their conference will be at least 3rd out of the 5 in difficulty. Oregon would actually be in a little danger if not for that @OSU win since the PAC 12 is down some.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:24 pm to Gator Fever
quote:
ou forgot Oregon, OK State and Baylor as they fully control their own destinies.
No they do not. One loss teams from their leagues are not automatics.
quote:
Oregon wont be left out with that @ OSU win and a 1 loss Big 12 Champion is 100% getting in.
It's very possible, but certainly not a guarantee. They lost to Stanford, so its not like their resume would be blemish-free.
Say Michigan goes on to beat Ohio State and win the Big 10.... that win over Ohio State would not look as strong. Also let's just pretend that Georgia wins out but loses to Bama in the SEC Championship Game.... at the same time Oklahoma runs the table. The rankings would likely look like this:
1. Michigan (13-0); Big 10 Champs
2. Alabama (12-1); SEC Champs
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. Oklahoma (13-0): Big 12 Champs
----
5. Oregon (12-1) Pac 12 Champs
No way Oregon gets in over those 4 resumes above. And for that matter, if Cincinnati is sitting at 13-0 with a win over 11-1 Notre Dame in South Bend, I think those of those teams could finish ahead of the Ducks..... not to mention the possibility of a 13-0 Wake Forest who could certainly get in as well.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:24 pm to meansonny
quote:
You bitch about metrics more than any other posters on the trant.
Congrats, i guess.
Because I understand their flaws.
Do you think every team that is 7-5 is the same strength? Because common sense says that a team that goes 7-5 while playing in the SEC is likely much stronger than a team that goes 7-5 while playing in the MWC.
Yet, win% base SoS metrics claim these teams are equal. They aren't.
Furthermore, do you think rushing for 100 yards against Georgia is easier or more difficult than rushing for 100 yards against Arkon? Because common sense says that doing that against Georgia is much more difficult.
Yet, so many times people post raw stats that treat them as being equal. They aren't.
Then going back to SoS metrics, most all of them use average team strength. This is just a flawed way of looking at it.
2 schedules. Team A plays the #1 and #100 team. Team B plays the #50 and #51 teams. If you average them, as most metrics do, you come to the result they are equal schedule strengths.
But they aren't even close to being equal. Team A has played a MUCH more difficult schedule. Half the SEC could go undefeated on Team B's schedule, but almost all would lose 1 game on Team A's schedule.
Knowing all this, how in the frick am I supposed to take metrics that have these flaws seriously?
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:29 pm to Mulkey Man
"Eye Test"=TV ratings. You can bet they will spin as hard as possible to prevent another all SEC Championship. Best scenario for them is a team from 4 of the P5 conferences. Cincy might spark a little David vs. Goliath type interest but would probably be short-lived. The spin will begin after this weekend.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:29 pm to ronricks
quote:
If you were trying to sell me on Georgia's resume up to this point who would you point to as your best win?
Thing is, we don't have to sell you shite. Just win the games in front of us. It's what we've done, and hopefully continue to do.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:40 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
Every top 10 team's record against FBS winning teams:
5-0 Georgia
2-0 Cincinnati
3-1 Alabama
2-0 Oklahoma
2-1 Ohio State
3-0 Michigan
3-0 Oregon
0-0 Michigan State
3-1 Iowa
2-1 Ole Miss
5-0 Georgia
2-0 Cincinnati
3-1 Alabama
2-0 Oklahoma
2-1 Ohio State
3-0 Michigan
3-0 Oregon
0-0 Michigan State
3-1 Iowa
2-1 Ole Miss
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:59 pm to deltaland
Ohio State is somehow more overrated than OU.
They have played 1 Top 25 Team and lost to Oregon at home without their guy that will be the Overall #1 Draft Pick.
Their best win? An ugly road win over unranked Minnesota. Other wins against this Murderers Row:
Tulsa
Akron
Rutgers
Maryland
Indiana
Yet they are #5 and on ESPN's College Football Final they gave them a Power Rating of #2 behind Georgia.
How messed up is that?
In reality this is a year we could use a 16 Team Playoff, lots of good teams but UGA is the only team that has shown they are great with Bama right behind.
They have played 1 Top 25 Team and lost to Oregon at home without their guy that will be the Overall #1 Draft Pick.
Their best win? An ugly road win over unranked Minnesota. Other wins against this Murderers Row:
Tulsa
Akron
Rutgers
Maryland
Indiana
Yet they are #5 and on ESPN's College Football Final they gave them a Power Rating of #2 behind Georgia.
How messed up is that?
In reality this is a year we could use a 16 Team Playoff, lots of good teams but UGA is the only team that has shown they are great with Bama right behind.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 1:59 pm to BHMKyle
A. SEC champ (likely Georgia or Alabama)
B. Big Ten champ (who knows)
C. Wide open (probably Cinn if they beat SMU and win AAC championship game, or one from below)
D. Wide open (probably Big 12 champ, Pac 12 champ or SEC runner-up)
B. Big Ten champ (who knows)
C. Wide open (probably Cinn if they beat SMU and win AAC championship game, or one from below)
D. Wide open (probably Big 12 champ, Pac 12 champ or SEC runner-up)
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:02 pm to paperwasp
quote:If these numbers only reflect teams they’ve already played, its certain that Bama’s SOS will be higher than UGa’s by the end of the regular season.
#Georgia 29th #Alabama 36th
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:14 pm to aggressor
quote:
How messed up is that?
LINK
You're right it is messed up. SP+ has them #1.
I actually agree that OSU is getting a ton of love right now and wish they weren't. It's better to be under the radar for a bit longer but they are doing things to teams that no one else is really doing right now. If OSU beats MSU/Michigan/PSU and wins the B1G I feel like no one will argue if they are one of the top 4.
However, they have looked better than basically everyone playing bad teams. Tennessee isn't that good and they hung with Bama for 3 quarters, Cincy was in a 1 possession game with a 1-5 team, OU was down in the 3rd quarter to Kansas. Compare that with OSU who was up 44-7 at the half in a road game where it was pouring in Indiana and it's easy to see why people are starting to think highly of them.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:18 pm to Krampus
So the AAC is now stronger than the BDF? Interesting
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:21 pm to Prof
quote:
SoS has not mattered in ages.
This is the problem with the "committee" approach, they just change the requirements when they want according to how the "top" teams are looking. Can't let nobodies crash the party!
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:21 pm to 3down10
quote:
2 schedules. Team A plays the #1 and #100 team. Team B plays the #50 and #51 teams. If you average them, as most metrics do, you come to the result they are equal schedule strengths.
I've been making this argument for years. It's a flaw in the system but it is better than not taking anything into account I think.
Is it better to beat 23, 25, 27 and 30 or 2, 4, 70 and 100? It is harder to go 4-0 against the 2nd but the first shows consistency.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:22 pm to EKG
quote:
Dang.
Buncha yankees on that list.
I guess “even a blind squirrel ...” and whatnot.
B1G bias rears its ugly head
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:30 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
If all of the favored teams win this week. First Playoff breakdown will look like this....
1. UGA
4. Michigan
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
5. Cinncy
6. Oregon or OK
1. UGA
4. Michigan
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
5. Cinncy
6. Oregon or OK
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:33 pm to tyler925
quote:
Georgia is gaining insecurity at an exciting level
Yeah, and we're all sure your nipples are hard as a rock.
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:35 pm to aggressor
quote:
Other wins against this Murderers Row
Man I miss that pic from the old B12
:(
Posted on 10/25/21 at 2:35 pm to Junkyard Super Dawg
Any team who almost loses to Kansas should be removed from playoff contention. If no other SEC team makes the playoffs, then UGA is going to take whoever they play to the woodshed.
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