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SEC West vs. East

Posted on 10/2/19 at 11:11 am
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 11:11 am
The West is off to a 3-0 start in head-to-head matchups, and this weekend is a big one in terms of what the final East vs. West tally might look like at the end of the year.

According to ESPN FPI, Auburn has a 53.2% chance of beating Florida and Ole Miss has a 69.4% chance of beating Vanderbilt.

If the West jumps to 5-0, it becomes nearly impossible for the East to catch up in terms of head-to-head record by the end of the season. We still have Alabama vs. Tennessee left to play (97.4% chance of a Tide win according to FPI) as well as a few others with the Western team likely being a huge favorite.

How long does this go on before the SEC decides to finally tackle the issue of imbalanced divisions?
Posted by Hailstate15
ForeverGator's mom's
Member since Nov 2018
21466 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 11:12 am to
Just wait till next weekend. We have the battle of the Shitty and even More shitty in Knoxville
Posted by PorkSammich
North FL
Member since Sep 2013
14222 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 11:15 am to
Well overdue to move Auburn to the East.
Posted by Wolfhound45
Hanging with Chicken in Lurkistan
Member since Nov 2009
120000 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 11:22 am to
quote:

Well overdue to move Auburn to the East.
Posted by notsince98
KC, MO
Member since Oct 2012
17954 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 11:23 am to
This is revenge for the East pounding the west last year.
Posted by RT1941
Member since May 2007
30193 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 11:25 am to
In 2018, the East went 9-5 vs the West. Hell 4 SEC West teams (ArK/AU/MSU/OM) went 0-2 vs the East.

Posted by SCgamecock2988
Member since Oct 2015
14056 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 11:39 am to
3-0... lets see:

Alabama/South Carolina
LSU/Vanderbilt
MSU/Kentucky

Two of these aren't even fair comparisons.
Posted by Ted2010
Member since Oct 2010
38958 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 11:42 am to
I wonder if Vandy can drop 38 on Ole Miss?
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

In 2018, the East went 9-5 vs the West. Hell 4 SEC West teams (ArK/AU/MSU/OM) went 0-2 vs the East.


One season in a decade the East had a better record.

Since 2009, the West is 113-53 in head-to-head meetings against the East, for a winning percentage of 68.1%.

No Division should ever have a 68.1% winning percentage against the other during a time frame that is longer than a decade. Period. When you're talking about 10+ year periods of time, divisions ought to be within a 55-45 type of margin between eachother. 68-32 is unacceptable.
Posted by CollegeFBRules
Member since Oct 2008
24238 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:05 pm to
Wonder if Ole Miss can drop 31 on Vandy.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

3-0... lets see:

Alabama/South Carolina
LSU/Vanderbilt
MSU/Kentucky

Two of these aren't even fair comparisons.


Which is the entire point. More often than not, when a West team plays an East team is not a fair comparison.

When South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vandy are all in one division it creates a lot of these "unfair comparisons"
This post was edited on 10/2/19 at 12:06 pm
Posted by Ted2010
Member since Oct 2010
38958 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:07 pm to
38>31 so if Vandy drops 38 on OM then yes they would have dropped 31 too.


But there is no way Vandy will drop 38 on an SEC team
Posted by Rabern57
Alabama
Member since Jan 2010
13361 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

How long does this go on before the SEC decides to finally tackle the issue of imbalanced divisions?
If Mullen works out and Tennessee gets a coach the divisions would be even. The East was better in the 90's.
This post was edited on 10/2/19 at 12:12 pm
Posted by Born to be a Tiger1
Somewhere lost in Texas
Member since Jan 2018
586 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

When South Carolina, Kentucky, and Vandy are all in one division it creates a lot of these "unfair comparisons"


I know Tennessee hasn't played a west team yet, but you have got to add them into your statement above within the quotation marks.
Posted by remaster916
Alabama
Member since Oct 2012
12214 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:16 pm to
Ole Miss will beat Vandy, this is Vandy worst team in years.

Auburn/ Florida is a toss up
Posted by PalJoey256
Member since Aug 2019
31 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:18 pm to
I think Tennessee has a problem with recruiting base. The same problem since south Carolina came in the sec and with Clemson winning it makes even harder
Posted by LouisvilleKat
Member since Oct 2016
18190 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

How long does this go on before the SEC decides to finally tackle the issue of imbalanced divisions?
Teams are up an down all the time. Its impossible to balance. Anyone have an all-time stat for east vs the west?
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:23 pm to
Auburn for Missouri would balancd the divisions more.

Though Missouri is a yearly decent team but still. Would put four of the big six in the East as well
Posted by Rabern57
Alabama
Member since Jan 2010
13361 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

Auburn for Missouri would balancd the divisions more.

Missouri has won the division. More like Vandy for Auburn.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 10/2/19 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

If Mullen works out and Tennessee gets a coach the divisions would be even. The East was better in the 90's


As I said a million times, the '90s is never going to happen again.

You had Florida and Tennessee simultaneously living in their programs' respective Golden Ages while at the very same time, Alabama and LSU were at program historic lows.... not to mention Auburn was completely meh from 1995-2001.

All of that is never going to happen again at the same time.

Look at it in these terms:

# of Weeks ranked in the AP Top 25 (1936-2019):

797- Alabama
623- LSU
606- Florida
585- Georgia
582- Tennessee
572- Auburn
450- Texas A&M
417- Arkansas
289- Ole Miss
253- Missouri
202- Miss St.
187- S. Carolina
90- Kentucky
31- Vanderbilt

The three weakest programs historically are all on one side. That's your first problem.

Total Weeks Ranked in AP Top 25:
Current SEC West teams: 3,350
Current SEC East teams: 2,334

That breaks about 59% of all weeks for SEC West teams to 41% for East teams.

The problem was that everything turned on its head during the 1990s with LSU, Alabama, and Auburn being relatively down and Florida and Tennessee being at the very top... far better during that time frame than their historical performance.

Here's how it looked from 1992-2001:

171- Florida
153- Tennessee
117- Alabama
99- Georgia
98- Auburn
62- Miss St.
58- LSU
32- Arkansas
26- S. Carolina
19- Ole Miss

From 1992-2001, the East totaled 449 total appearances in the Top 25 to the West's 386.... that's about a 54-46 advantage for the East.

That flies in defiance of the way things have typically gone for around 80 years. Everyone wants to take an 8-year snapshot and act like that is actually the norm of the past when historically speaking those days were not normal.

Had divisions existed prior to 1992, the West would have dominated for the majority of the time as well.

Let's stop pretending the '90s was normal. It wasn't.
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