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SEC Blue Chip Ratios
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:20 am
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:20 am
Before season starts, I like to calculate Blue Chip Ratios for teams, as it is a good indication of the talent level per team.
Talent level isnt the only factor in a teams success, as coaching, gameplans, key matchups, good QB, leadership, etc factors in (ex. Kentucky had a low BCR last year and did very well.)
BCR is the amount of 4/5 star players divided by total active scholorships (in most cases - 85)
Note - No team has won a champion with less than a 52% BCR (Clemson 2017)
SEC EAST
1. Georgia - 71%
2. Florida - 45%
3. Tennessee - 42%
4. S. Carolina - 32%
5. Kentucky - 18%
6. Missouri - 10%
7. Vandy - 6%
SEC WEST
1. Alabama - 81%
2. LSU - 60%
3. Auburn - 54%
4. Texas A&M - 49%
5. Miss State - 25%
6. Arkansas - 22%
7. Ole Miss - 21%
Talent level isnt the only factor in a teams success, as coaching, gameplans, key matchups, good QB, leadership, etc factors in (ex. Kentucky had a low BCR last year and did very well.)
BCR is the amount of 4/5 star players divided by total active scholorships (in most cases - 85)
Note - No team has won a champion with less than a 52% BCR (Clemson 2017)
SEC EAST
1. Georgia - 71%
2. Florida - 45%
3. Tennessee - 42%
4. S. Carolina - 32%
5. Kentucky - 18%
6. Missouri - 10%
7. Vandy - 6%
SEC WEST
1. Alabama - 81%
2. LSU - 60%
3. Auburn - 54%
4. Texas A&M - 49%
5. Miss State - 25%
6. Arkansas - 22%
7. Ole Miss - 21%
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Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:21 am to SECUSC4
quote:
3. Tennessee - 42%
quote:
7. Vandy - 6%
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:22 am to SECUSC4
A few teams got some splainin’ to do.
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:30 am to SECUSC4
Wow...really shows how impressive Mizzou has been in spite of their lack of recruiting success. Must be the #poopswastikas
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:30 am to SECUSC4
This is a good article that goes over Bud Elliot’s version of the Blue Chip Ratio. I believe Elliot is the guy who really made the idea popular.
Elliot’s ratio removes transfers and walk ons from the numerator and denominator since these guys rarely affect teams in the same manner recruited guys do. Obviously, this is starting to change, especially with QB’s, but it’s still a valid adjustment.
With these adjustments, the following increases:
- Florida to 53% (above that coveted 50% threshold)
- LSU to 64%
- Georgia to 79%
- Auburn to 58%
Alabama actually decreases to 80%. Or maybe it was more of a rounding difference. I don’t know.
Either way, it’s an interesting metric to say the least.
Blue Chip Ratio 2019
Elliot’s ratio removes transfers and walk ons from the numerator and denominator since these guys rarely affect teams in the same manner recruited guys do. Obviously, this is starting to change, especially with QB’s, but it’s still a valid adjustment.
With these adjustments, the following increases:
- Florida to 53% (above that coveted 50% threshold)
- LSU to 64%
- Georgia to 79%
- Auburn to 58%
Alabama actually decreases to 80%. Or maybe it was more of a rounding difference. I don’t know.
Either way, it’s an interesting metric to say the least.
Blue Chip Ratio 2019
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:35 am to Red Beaulieu
quote:
Elliot’s ratio removes transfers and walk ons from the numerator and denominator since these guys rarely affect teams in the same manner recruited guys do
Yea but he also counts signees who don't get in school and also doesn't update players who quit or transfer out of the program.
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:35 am to Red Beaulieu
quote:
- Florida to 53% (above that coveted 50% threshold)
I had Florida at 52% in january, but with 6 4* Freshman leaving from their 2018 class, and several transfers leaving, they dropped to 45%.
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:38 am to SECUSC4
I would imagine the many special teams guys we keep on scholarship hurt us a bit here 
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:43 am to RD Dawg
I wasn’t trying to one up the OP or say that Elliot’s ratio is the be all end all, just adding another resource to the discussion.
But I did not know that, so point taken.
I just find the BCR and the annual adjustments to it fascinating. I’ll really be focusing on Ohio State this year because of it as well. Things could get ugly for Day quick following CUM and the BCR he’s inherited.
But I did not know that, so point taken.
I just find the BCR and the annual adjustments to it fascinating. I’ll really be focusing on Ohio State this year because of it as well. Things could get ugly for Day quick following CUM and the BCR he’s inherited.
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:53 am to SECUSC4
Is florida even calculable? seems as if they've lost too many players. Does not compute with irrational numbers. Don't come at me with any of that scientological BS auditing math either.
Posted on 8/23/19 at 9:56 am to SECUSC4
You should do just starting rosters. That would be a better gauge.
Posted on 8/23/19 at 10:00 am to AUCE05
Yeah cause depth has never mattered in football.
Posted on 8/23/19 at 10:07 am to AUCE05
Updated this month f/ Bud Elliot
Ohio State 81%
Alabama 80%
Georgia 79%
LSU 64%
Florida State 61%
Clemson 60%
USC 60%
Penn State 60%
Michigan 60%
Texas 60%
Oklahoma 60%
Auburn 58%
Washington 54%
Notre Dame 54%
Florida 53%
Miami 51%
Ohio State 81%
Alabama 80%
Georgia 79%
LSU 64%
Florida State 61%
Clemson 60%
USC 60%
Penn State 60%
Michigan 60%
Texas 60%
Oklahoma 60%
Auburn 58%
Washington 54%
Notre Dame 54%
Florida 53%
Miami 51%
Posted on 8/23/19 at 10:08 am to WestCoastAg
Tennessee is 7% behind Texas A&M. TF you laughing at?
Posted on 8/23/19 at 10:08 am to Nughuffer
LSU posters, everyone
Posted on 8/23/19 at 10:10 am to AUCE05
quote:
You should do just starting rosters. That would be a better gauge.
How tf would that be a better gauge. any team over 25% (22/85) would likely have a starting BCR of 100%.
Im not gonna just list 10 teams and say 100%. Comparability is a little diminished there. Depth is massively important in football.
Posted on 8/23/19 at 10:12 am to Nughuffer
quote:
Tennessee is 7% behind Texas A&M. TF you laughing at?
Really?
This is you:
Posted on 8/23/19 at 10:25 am to KaiserSoze99
I think this is a perfect representation of why most people think A&M is right on the cusp of being an annual contender. After this season, their BCR will likely jump well over the 50% threshold. And if they perform fairly well this season with that absurd schedule, they’ll likely bring a lot of confidence / momentum to go along with their overall stronger roster.
This post was edited on 8/23/19 at 10:27 am
Posted on 8/23/19 at 10:28 am to AUCE05
quote:
You should do just starting rosters. That would be a better gauge.
You seem to fundamentally misunderstand why Alabama has set itself apart from its rivals during this run.
Posted on 8/23/19 at 10:31 am to LMfan
More granular information could be useful.
For instance a breakdown of bluechip ration by position group compared to stats on BC racios for each position on playoff/championship teams.
OL and DL for instance compared to WR and Safety.
For instance a breakdown of bluechip ration by position group compared to stats on BC racios for each position on playoff/championship teams.
OL and DL for instance compared to WR and Safety.
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