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Record against common opponents
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:28 pm
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:28 pm
Everyone knows transitive wins are BS -eventually every conference has a circle of suck - but record against common opponents is legit enough that every conference uses it as a tiebreaker. This is especially true if you have at least 3 common opponents which minimizes the impact of lucky results. So how do the SEC contenders for the last spot stack up?
Ole Miss vs Bama
LSU - Bama +32 big advantage Bama
UGA - Ole Miss +11 advantage ole Miss
Scar- Ole Miss +22 advantage ole Miss
Oklahoma- Ole Miss +33 big advantage ole Miss
Final score: 3-1 ole Miss (+34 aggregate)
Ole Miss vs SCar
UK - SCar +28 big advantage SCar
LSU - Even Tie
Head to Head - Ole Miss + 24 big advantage Ole Miss
Final score 1-1-1. Tiebreaker is head to head. Ole Miss wins.
Bama vs SCar
Mizzou - Bama +30 big advantage Bama
LSU - Bama +32 big advantage Bama
Scar - Bama +2 advantage Bama
Vandy- SCar +26 big advantage SCar
Final Score: 3-1 Bama (+38 aggregate) plus head to head.
So while SCar is super close to Ole Miss, they lose because of head to head and trail Bama significantly even though the head to head game was close. Ole Miss should get the last spot with a clear lead among common opponents compared to Bama.
Ole Miss vs Bama
LSU - Bama +32 big advantage Bama
UGA - Ole Miss +11 advantage ole Miss
Scar- Ole Miss +22 advantage ole Miss
Oklahoma- Ole Miss +33 big advantage ole Miss
Final score: 3-1 ole Miss (+34 aggregate)
Ole Miss vs SCar
UK - SCar +28 big advantage SCar
LSU - Even Tie
Head to Head - Ole Miss + 24 big advantage Ole Miss
Final score 1-1-1. Tiebreaker is head to head. Ole Miss wins.
Bama vs SCar
Mizzou - Bama +30 big advantage Bama
LSU - Bama +32 big advantage Bama
Scar - Bama +2 advantage Bama
Vandy- SCar +26 big advantage SCar
Final Score: 3-1 Bama (+38 aggregate) plus head to head.
So while SCar is super close to Ole Miss, they lose because of head to head and trail Bama significantly even though the head to head game was close. Ole Miss should get the last spot with a clear lead among common opponents compared to Bama.
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Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:29 pm to Dixie.Reb
The horse is Dead!!’
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:30 pm to Dixie.Reb
No way in hell Ole Miss gets in over their beloved tide 
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:30 pm to Dixie.Reb
We gave up on transitive BS about 3 weeks into this season.
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:34 pm to Dixie.Reb
You're effectively trying to use the transitive property using margin of victory/defeat in your analysis.
That's worse than just using the transitive property, not better.
Teams "play to win the game". Not to put up more points on a team they are ahead of. While fans like to see it, most coaches take the win even when they could tack on more points because the points don't matter.
That's worse than just using the transitive property, not better.
Teams "play to win the game". Not to put up more points on a team they are ahead of. While fans like to see it, most coaches take the win even when they could tack on more points because the points don't matter.
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:37 pm to Vincenzo Pantangelli
quote:
No way in hell Ole Miss gets in over their beloved tide
And they shouldn’t.
Bama has a better strength of schedule, better strength of record, better FPI, higher SP+, higher Sagarin, higher rank average of losses, higher rank average of best wins, 2 more wins vs. Top 40 teams, no losses at home, etc.
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:39 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
Bama vs SCar
Mizzou - Bama +30 big advantage Bama
LSU - Bama +32 big advantage Bama
Scar - Bama +2 advantage Bama
Vandy- SCar +26 big advantage SCar
You left out Oklahoma. That's, y'know, kinda important.
+47 SC.
This post was edited on 12/3/24 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:41 pm to Dixie.Reb
The aggregate score doesn’t really matter.
The facts are:
1- UGA - Ole Miss 3 score clear victory vs Bama 1-score game decided late in the fourth.
2- USC - Ole Miss 3 score clear road victory vs Bama 1-score game decided late in the fourth.
3- Oklahoma - Ole Miss clear victory vs Alabama 3-score loss.
All overwhelmingly favor Ole Miss
So, the question is, does Alabama’s blowout win over LSU vs Ole Miss OT loss to LSU make up the overwhelming gap in the other three games????
I’d argue at best for Alabama, the OU-LSU results are a push with Ole Miss.
That leaves the fact that Ole Miss had convincing wins over UGA and at USC, compared to Bama’s games that came down to the wire.
The facts are:
1- UGA - Ole Miss 3 score clear victory vs Bama 1-score game decided late in the fourth.
2- USC - Ole Miss 3 score clear road victory vs Bama 1-score game decided late in the fourth.
3- Oklahoma - Ole Miss clear victory vs Alabama 3-score loss.
All overwhelmingly favor Ole Miss
So, the question is, does Alabama’s blowout win over LSU vs Ole Miss OT loss to LSU make up the overwhelming gap in the other three games????
I’d argue at best for Alabama, the OU-LSU results are a push with Ole Miss.
That leaves the fact that Ole Miss had convincing wins over UGA and at USC, compared to Bama’s games that came down to the wire.
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:43 pm to lsusa
quote:
The facts are:
Your “facts” are pretty much irrelevant.
Bama is better in almost every single metric, including but not limited to SOS, SOR, FPI, etc.
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:44 pm to lsusa
quote:
lsusa
I'd advise you just go ahead and mentally prepare for Alabama to make it into the playoffs.
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:46 pm to lsusa
quote:
The aggregate score doesn’t really matter.
The facts are:
1- UGA - Ole Miss 3 score clear victory vs Bama 1-score game decided late in the fourth.
2- USC - Ole Miss 3 score clear road victory vs Bama 1-score game decided late in the fourth.
3- Oklahoma - Ole Miss clear victory vs Alabama 3-score loss.
All overwhelmingly favor Ole Miss
So, the question is, does Alabama’s blowout win over LSU vs Ole Miss OT loss to LSU make up the overwhelming gap in the other three games????
I’d argue at best for Alabama, the OU-LSU results are a push with Ole Miss.
That leaves the fact that Ole Miss had convincing wins over UGA and at USC, compared to Bama’s games that came down to the wire.
If you did this process for Alabama vs Georgia
Alabama beat Georgia at home. Slight Bama.
Georgia won a hard fought game at home vs Tennessee. Alabama lost a hard fought game on the road vs Georgia. Slight UGA.
Georgia beat Auburn at home by 18. Alabama beat Auburn at home by 14. Push.
Well, if that is all that really matters then it's clear that Alabama and Georgia should be neck and neck to get into the playoffs.
This of course, does not make sense, because defining an entire season of games on the 3-4 crossovers isn't a good process as it ignores 2/3 of the rest of the season. It ignores Georgia beating Texas and Clemson. It ignores Alabama losing to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt as well as beating South Carolina and Missouri. It's a silly way to compare seasons.
This post was edited on 12/3/24 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:49 pm to Dixie.Reb
So what you are saying is that Ole Miss is clearly better than Bama and barely better than South Carolina.
This makes the most sense and I can get behind that
This makes the most sense and I can get behind that
Posted on 12/3/24 at 2:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt won at Kentucky by 7. Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky by 3. Big Vandy.
Vanderbilt lost to South Carolina by 21. Ole Miss won at South Carolina by 24. Big Ole Miss.
Vanderbilt lost at LSU by 7. Ole Miss lost at LSU by 3. Push.
Looks like Vandy and OIe Miss should be neck and neck per this common opponent analysis.
Ole Miss vs LSU
Ole Miss lost to LSU by 3 on the road. Slight LSU.
Ole Miss won at South Carolina by 24. LSU won at South Carolina by 3. Ole Miss.
Ole Miss won at Arkansas by 32. LSU won at Arkansas by 24. Push.
Ole Miss lost at Florida by 7. LSU lost at Florida by 11. Push.
Ole Miss beat Oklahoma by 12. LSU beat Oklahoma by 20. Slight LSU.
Looks like LSU and Ole Miss are neck and neck using the unquestioned number one way to compare teams, which LSU moving ahead due to winning the head to head game.
Vanderbilt won at Kentucky by 7. Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky by 3. Big Vandy.
Vanderbilt lost to South Carolina by 21. Ole Miss won at South Carolina by 24. Big Ole Miss.
Vanderbilt lost at LSU by 7. Ole Miss lost at LSU by 3. Push.
Looks like Vandy and OIe Miss should be neck and neck per this common opponent analysis.
Ole Miss vs LSU
Ole Miss lost to LSU by 3 on the road. Slight LSU.
Ole Miss won at South Carolina by 24. LSU won at South Carolina by 3. Ole Miss.
Ole Miss won at Arkansas by 32. LSU won at Arkansas by 24. Push.
Ole Miss lost at Florida by 7. LSU lost at Florida by 11. Push.
Ole Miss beat Oklahoma by 12. LSU beat Oklahoma by 20. Slight LSU.
Looks like LSU and Ole Miss are neck and neck using the unquestioned number one way to compare teams, which LSU moving ahead due to winning the head to head game.
This post was edited on 12/3/24 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 12/3/24 at 3:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Ole Miss beat Oklahoma by 12. LSU beat Oklahoma by 20. Slight LSU.
quote:
Ole Miss won at Arkansas by 32. LSU won at Arkansas by 24. Push.
You can’t even troll right. How is an 8 point win for LSU a slight advantage but an 8 point win for ole miss is a push?
The actual math would be 1 big advantage for ole miss, one slight advantage for lsu and 3 pushes. Big advantage > small advantage so head to head doesn’t come in. Also they don’t have the same record like the 3 actual contenders so no tiebreaker is even needed
Posted on 12/3/24 at 3:05 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
You can’t even troll right. How is an 8 point win for LSU a slight advantage but an 8 point win for ole miss is a push?
because a 32 point win and 24 points win are both blowouts.
A 12 point win is not a blowout, but a 20 point win is.
Posted on 12/3/24 at 3:06 pm to Dixie.Reb
quote:
You can’t even troll right. How is an 8 point win for LSU a slight advantage but an 8 point win for ole miss is a push?
Because the difference in winning by 4 scores and 5 scores when the game is over at the end of the 3rd quarter is negligible. There is a reason stat models don't include garbage time stats and garbage time is defined as when a game is "over" and everything after that is not a true measure of the game going on - just teams playing out the clock.
Alabama beat WKU 66-0. Alabama beat Mercer 52-7. Equating WKU as being more impressive than Mercer because the final was technically a bigger margin is idiotic.
This post was edited on 12/3/24 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 12/3/24 at 3:07 pm to Tuscaloosa
Somebody droppin' RECEIPTS!!!
Posted on 12/3/24 at 3:09 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
This of course, does not make sense, because defining an entire season of games on the 3-4 crossovers isn't a good process as it ignores 2/3 of the rest of the season.
According to a graphic posted in another thread, the selection committee uses:
1- strength of schedule
2- head to head
3- outcome vs common opponents
Alabama and Ole Miss didnt play each other, and the difference in SOS is negligible. Meaning that outcome vs common opponents is probably the best area to compare.
There are certainly areas, down the line, where you can say that Alabama’s blowout win over Missouri was better than Ole Miss’s blowout win over Arkansas, or Alabama’s loss to Vandy was “better” than Ole Miss’s
loss to Kentucky. Alabama’s win over Wisconsin was better than Ole Miss’s win over “Wake Forrest”.
Of course, I’d offer that head-to-head is direct, common opponents is one level down though less valid, and the validity decreases at each level.
Posted on 12/3/24 at 3:16 pm to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Bama has a better strength of schedule, better strength of record, better FPI, higher SP+, higher Sagarin, higher rank average of losses, higher rank average of best wins, 2 more wins vs. Top 40 teams, no losses at home, etc.
Bama's teh clear playoff choice
Posted on 12/3/24 at 3:17 pm to lsusa
I mean who would be favored for each in the 12 team playoff if Bama was to play each of them?
Only 3 or 4 would be favored to beat Bama by a few points at best
Only 3 or 4 would be favored to beat Bama by a few points at best
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