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re: Percent of AP Polls appeared in
Posted on 6/7/19 at 2:17 pm to The_Ultimate_Warrior
Posted on 6/7/19 at 2:17 pm to The_Ultimate_Warrior
quote:
Always enjoy your angles my man. Absolutely solid.
Thank you. I appreciate that.
quote:
I haven’t looked too deeply into it, but I wonder about the different variables impacting Arkansas. I don’t want to be deliberately obtuse and claim “cuz dey joined the ESS E SEE!”
From 1936-‘91 Arkansas was ranked in 45.7% of all AP Polls. That was 12th best in the nation and trailed ONLY Alabama and Tennessee (among SEC schools) up to that point.
I think the root cause of the collapse of Arkansas football is probably very similar to what has caused Nebraska to collapse.
1. Relatively small state
*2nd smallest in the SEC footprint
2. Relatively slow growth
Since 1980, Arkansas has grown its population 31.8% compared to the entire SEC footprint growing at a rate of 68.1%.
3. Cold Weather
Sure, its not as bad as Nebraska or the Midwest states, but Fayetteville is colder in the winter than say Gainesville, College Station, Baton Rouge, and pretty much everyone in the SEC except for Missouri and Kentucky. How do you attract kids from the recruiting hotbeds of Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana to come north for the winter?
4. Loss of a Legend
How do you replace Frank Broyles? From 1958-1976 he led Arkansas and had them as a nationally recognized program. All the preceding factors are what makes it even harder to find a solid replacement. This is similar to Nebraska with Tom Osborne. The issues were all there in Nebraska (cold weather, small state, distance from the coasts, lack of African Americans nearby, etc.)... but Tom Osborne overcame those obstacles and kids still came to Nebraksa to play for a legend. Once he retired, they lost that x factor that helped the program overcome those difficulties.
This post was edited on 6/7/19 at 2:19 pm
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Posted on 6/7/19 at 2:20 pm to The_Ultimate_Warrior
If you play the best 5 teams in the SEC the fewest of the big 6 it’s gonna give you an easier path to be ranked. As far as LSU playing the second most ranked opponents it would help to know when in the season they played them, if it was ranked at time or final ranking, ranked teams record, etc. etc.
That can be spun a million different ways.
What can’t be spun is that LSU has only played Alabama, Auburn. UGA, Tenner, and UF a Big 6 low 265 times, with 1/3 being against one of those teams.
You could play the 19th and 20th ranked teams, but dodge 3 of the big 6 ranked at around 26,27,28 and still be better off competition wise.
That can be spun a million different ways.
What can’t be spun is that LSU has only played Alabama, Auburn. UGA, Tenner, and UF a Big 6 low 265 times, with 1/3 being against one of those teams.
You could play the 19th and 20th ranked teams, but dodge 3 of the big 6 ranked at around 26,27,28 and still be better off competition wise.
Posted on 6/7/19 at 2:31 pm to cajunbama
quote:
As far as LSU playing the second most ranked opponents it would help to know when in the season they played them, if it was ranked at time or final ranking, ranked teams record, etc. etc.
Ok. Let us play that game... LSU has played 82 teams that finished in the AP Top 5 all-time. That is the 6th most in College Football. Only Tennessee has played more in the SEC. LSU has the 8th most wins vs those teams (3rd in SEC).
LSU has played 152 teams that finished in the AP Top 10 all-time. That is 8th most in College Football. Only Tennessee and Florida have played more in the SEC. LSU has the 9th most wins vs those teams (3rd in SEC).
but muh big 6
Posted on 6/7/19 at 4:40 pm to The_Ultimate_Warrior
I did this awhile back for final rankings and mine also includes the Coaches poll.
ALABAMA
Top 05: 19-62
Top 10: 50-96-1
Ranked: 150-149-10
AUBURN
13-71-1, 34-109-5, 93-196-8
FLORIDA
16-66-1, 41-117-4, 113-194-12
GEORGIA
9-53, 25-93-3, 85-181-9
LSU
16-65-2, 34-117-3, 101-194-9
TENNESSEE
15-70-4, 32-117-9, 100-172-16
ALABAMA
Top 05: 19-62
Top 10: 50-96-1
Ranked: 150-149-10
AUBURN
13-71-1, 34-109-5, 93-196-8
FLORIDA
16-66-1, 41-117-4, 113-194-12
GEORGIA
9-53, 25-93-3, 85-181-9
LSU
16-65-2, 34-117-3, 101-194-9
TENNESSEE
15-70-4, 32-117-9, 100-172-16
Posted on 6/7/19 at 4:46 pm to The_Ultimate_Warrior
quote:
If Auburn can stay ranked for the next 19 consecutive polls, all Big 6 teams will have appeared in the AP Poll at least 50% of the time.... pending Tennessee also, I guess.
Haha, well that won't happen most likely.
In seriousness, it is interesting that this looks like one of the first Big 6 metrics where Tennessee is possibly poised to slip toward the back of the Big 6. Some of the other metrics seem like they'll keep UT higher in that category for longer just because they were so close to the top for so long.
Posted on 6/7/19 at 5:12 pm to cajunbama
quote:
cajunbama
We get it. Your hated of LSU outweighs your interest in historical statistical analysis.
But in the end, your logic is flawed. You disregard others' arguments that LSU played a very high number of ranked team as "spin." Then you follow that up by posturing the hypothetical that playing the number 19th and 20th ranked teams is not as good as the 26th, 27th, and 28th teams if they are Big 6 SEC teams, thereby creating phantom scenarios to spin the stats in your favor. For that I call you out as a hypocrite as well.
Posted on 6/7/19 at 5:27 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
I think the root cause of the collapse of Arkansas football is probably very similar to what has caused Nebraska to collapse.
It is similar to Nebraska, but also unique. I attribute several factors, including some I won't mention, because they'll certainly be controversial.
State population size doesn't have much to do with it. We just recently overtook Mississippi in population and we only have one school. I believe the high growth rate for the SEC footprint that you mentioned, is mostly due to Georgia, Florida and Texas, and that Arkansas fares well against the rest. Someone posted these numbers recently, and IIRC, Arkansas was in the upper tier in the SEC.
The bigger issues are that we have a smaller black population (about half the percentage of typical SEC states) and that there are far fewer great athletes near Fayetteville, compared to your average SEC town. Tulsa and Kansas City are nearby, but Oklahoma and Nebraska dominate recruiting in those cities. DFW/East Texas was our recruiting nexus in the past, but we began struggling there after we left for the SEC.
Poor leadership from our PTB has been another factor. Most fans believe our problems began after Hatfield left for Clemson, which happened in 1990 -- the same year we accepted our invitation to join the SEC. Almost every coaching hire since has been a circus of troubled mistakes.
The media has changed and small population size does play into that. While we have more sports coverage today, the big sports outlets spend most of their time covering schools in more populated states, which has hurt schools like Arkansas, Nebraska and Ole Miss. Sadly, media coverage today is more about how many fans you have, then how many games you've won. Schools with more media coverage obviously fare better in recruiting.
Replacing Broyles was difficult, but Holtz and Hatfield still fielded top-15 teams in most years. I'm not sure that I'd count cold weather at all, since you have successful teams in far colder climates, like Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Washington, etc.
Anyhow, that's my opinion and thanks for the great post!
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