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Path to the S16, per .NET
Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:46 am
Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:46 am
Alabama - Robert Morris, #139; St. Mary's, #21
Auburn - Alabama St, #274; Creighton, #30
Florida - Norfolk St, #183; UConn, #32
Tennessee - Wofford, #131; UCLA #27
Ole Miss - North Carolina #36, Iowa State #9
Kentucky - Troy, #99; Illinois #17
Arkansas - Kansas, #20; St. John's #13
Order of difficulty:
Arkansas - Average ranking 16.5; next opponent - #7
Ole Miss - Average ranking 22.5; next opponent - #11
Kentucky - Average ranking 58; next opponent - #5
Tennessee - Average ranking 79; next opponent - #14
Alabama - Average ranking 80; next opponent - #25
Florida - Average ranking 107.5; next opponent - #10
Auburn - Average ranking 152; next opponent - #23
Path to E8 comparisons (based on other SEC teams and their opponents):
Example: Kentucky played the 3rd toughest 1st round opponent, 3rd toughest 2nd round opponent, and toughest E8 opponent for an average of 2.3
Arkansas - 1.6
Kentucky - 2.3
Ole Miss - 2.3
Tennessee - 4
Alabama - 5.3
Florida - 5.7
Auburn - 6.3
Interesting tidbits:
Ole Miss plays the #11 team - 4th toughest of all teams in the S16 going against SEC teams.
Auburn played the 7th toughest (weakest) in the opening round, then the 6th toughest, and will play the 6th toughest for their E8 bid.
Arkansas will play no one under 20th in NET for this tournament run.
It also means that Kentucky, Arkansas, and Ole Miss will not have played a team below 100 in NET since conference play started (since December).
Auburn - Alabama St, #274; Creighton, #30
Florida - Norfolk St, #183; UConn, #32
Tennessee - Wofford, #131; UCLA #27
Ole Miss - North Carolina #36, Iowa State #9
Kentucky - Troy, #99; Illinois #17
Arkansas - Kansas, #20; St. John's #13
Order of difficulty:
Arkansas - Average ranking 16.5; next opponent - #7
Ole Miss - Average ranking 22.5; next opponent - #11
Kentucky - Average ranking 58; next opponent - #5
Tennessee - Average ranking 79; next opponent - #14
Alabama - Average ranking 80; next opponent - #25
Florida - Average ranking 107.5; next opponent - #10
Auburn - Average ranking 152; next opponent - #23
Path to E8 comparisons (based on other SEC teams and their opponents):
Example: Kentucky played the 3rd toughest 1st round opponent, 3rd toughest 2nd round opponent, and toughest E8 opponent for an average of 2.3
Arkansas - 1.6
Kentucky - 2.3
Ole Miss - 2.3
Tennessee - 4
Alabama - 5.3
Florida - 5.7
Auburn - 6.3
Interesting tidbits:
Ole Miss plays the #11 team - 4th toughest of all teams in the S16 going against SEC teams.
Auburn played the 7th toughest (weakest) in the opening round, then the 6th toughest, and will play the 6th toughest for their E8 bid.
Arkansas will play no one under 20th in NET for this tournament run.
It also means that Kentucky, Arkansas, and Ole Miss will not have played a team below 100 in NET since conference play started (since December).
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Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:48 am to skrayper
Incredible run by OM, UK, and Arky
Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:51 am to REBEL5 AC
So the lower seeded teams played tougher teams than the higher seeded teams?
That's kind of the way it works.
That's kind of the way it works.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:56 am to Murph4HOF
Alabama state was super weak and drags the average down. I’d argue that Creighton team was playing above their Net in the tournament though.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 10:58 am to Murph4HOF
quote:
So the lower seeded teams played tougher teams than the higher seeded teams?
Yes, but not quite equally.
For example Tennessee and Alabama have played nearly identical levels of competition, and started both at 2 seeds; however, Florida's significantly tougher 1st round opponent places a much larger gap in average difficulty between them and Auburn.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:00 am to skrayper
quote:
Florida's significantly tougher 1st round opponent places a much larger gap in average difficulty between them and Auburn.
Which is all pretty silly, because Norfolk State and Alabama State are both cannon fodder regardless of whether one is #201 or #278.
The odds of a loss to #201 is about 0.8% while the odds of a loss to #278 is about 0.4%.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
Yea, there are only 64 (well 68) teams in the field, so you have to hae a ranking of 1-68. Anything else is just nonsensical tbh.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:12 am to TTOWN RONMON
quote:
Yea, there are only 64 (well 68) teams in the field, so you have to hae a ranking of 1-68. Anything else is just nonsensical tbh.
Eh, sometimes you get a mid-major that gets hot enough at the end of the season to win their conference tournament but won't necessarily be a threat in the larger NCAAT field. So understandable to look at it with a broader brush.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:13 am to skrayper
There are some computer trickers in there (both ways).
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:14 am to skrayper
quote:
It also means that Kentucky, Arkansas, and Ole Miss will not have played a team below 100 in NET since conference play started (since December).
This part of it is the wildest to me. But absolutely confirms that iron sharpens iron.
I can say with some confidence that while Illinois is a good team, it was a night and day difference playing them versus the defenses (especially the way games have been called between conference and NCAAT) we saw in the SEC.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:26 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Which is all pretty silly, because Norfolk State and Alabama State are both cannon fodder regardless of whether one is #201 or #278.
The odds of a loss to #201 is about 0.8% while the odds of a loss to #278 is about 0.4%.
I don't disagree; more to the point of complaints about how one team had an "easier" path than the others. When you really break it down, all 4 of the teams that made 1 and 2 seeds had roughly equal difficulty, with only the first game being significantly different. Both Alabama and Auburn, when contrasting against everyone else, got the "easiest" S16 matchups - but both teams are in the top 25 and are still capable of beating either team.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:28 am to skrayper
quote:
I don't disagree; more to the point of complaints about how one team had an "easier" path than the others. When you really break it down, all 4 of the teams that made 1 and 2 seeds had roughly equal difficulty, with only the first game being significantly different. Both Alabama and Auburn, when contrasting against everyone else, got the "easiest" S16 matchups - but both teams are in the top 25 and are still capable of beating either team.
Oh yea, it's laughable. And frankly, it doesn't matter. After 40 years of seemingly always playing the hottest mid major or the best team in the tournament in the 2nd round or the Sweet 16 to destroy a chance at a magical season, I don't give two shites if we play an entire bracket of double digit seeds. For one, it's part of the deal and for two, if a double digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 then they are playing pretty damn good basketball.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:31 am to skrayper
quote:Being the overall #1 seed has it's advantages....
For example Tennessee and Alabama have played nearly identical levels of competition, and started both at 2 seeds; however, Florida's significantly tougher 1st round opponent places a much larger gap in average difficulty between them and Auburn.
Atlanta should be nothing but orange and blue!
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:32 am to BluegrassBelle
quote:
This part of it is the wildest to me. But absolutely confirms that iron sharpens iron.
I can say with some confidence that while Illinois is a good team, it was a night and day difference playing them versus the defenses (especially the way games have been called between conference and NCAAT) we saw in the SEC.
Yep - we've been almost effortlessly throwing lobs to Cliff for 2 straight games now, including against a team with multiple 7 footers. Some of our fans started asking "where has this been all year?" and the answer was pretty simple ----- um, it wasn't possible because the teams we were playing had Amari Williams, Felix Okpara, Johni Broome, Caldwell, the entire Florida front line, Mark Mitchell, Kadin Shedrick, Jonas Aidoo, and KeShawn Murphy. Turns out most teams don't!
This post was edited on 3/24/25 at 11:33 am
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Oh yea, it's laughable. And frankly, it doesn't matter. After 40 years of seemingly always playing the hottest mid major or the best team in the tournament in the 2nd round or the Sweet 16 to destroy a chance at a magical season, I don't give two shites if we play an entire bracket of double digit seeds. For one, it's part of the deal and for two, if a double digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 then they are playing pretty damn good basketball.
Well and the Committee always throws some seeding wrenches in there too.
We took out some really, really good teams on the way to the National Championship game as an 8 seed in 2014. I'm pretty sure Wichita State and Louisville would've happily played any other higher seeded team in the bracket at that point.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:36 am to BluegrassBelle
The first weekend of the tourney really didnt matter all the much for the top of the SEC.
Maybe affected the ease of the path to the S16 or E8, but everyone is going to have to win a few games against elite teams to win it all.
Maybe affected the ease of the path to the S16 or E8, but everyone is going to have to win a few games against elite teams to win it all.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 11:38 am to BluegrassBelle
quote:
We took out some really, really good teams on the way to the National Championship game as an 8 seed in 2014. I'm pretty sure Wichita State and Louisville would've happily played any other higher seeded team in the bracket at that point.
Yep - teams like you guys that year, Gonzaga this year, even Arkansas this year that were either better than their resume suggested or were banged up during the year and got better late in the year and are a better team than their seeding (correctly based on resume) suggested.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 12:06 pm to REBEL5 AC
quote:
Incredible run by OM, UK, and Arky
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