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re: Oklahoma only -5.5 ???
Posted on 9/10/26 at 2:21 pm to paperwasp
Posted on 9/10/26 at 2:21 pm to paperwasp
quote:
Personally I think it's too early to discern trends, but most predictive systems still have Michigan covering this (with Oklahoma winning).
Fair take. As most teams do, Michigan will improve from week 1 to week 2.
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Posted on 9/10/26 at 2:38 pm to Lptigerfan
One thing I've learned about Vegas. When they release a spread that seems too good to be true, they are trying to steer people to bet that spread. They clearly want everyone betting the Sooners. That would make me nervous. They know something.
This doesn't always hold true. Sometimes it really IS too good to be true but Vegas isn't in the business of losing money. I think OU wins but I suspect this will be a lot closer than people think.
This doesn't always hold true. Sometimes it really IS too good to be true but Vegas isn't in the business of losing money. I think OU wins but I suspect this will be a lot closer than people think.
Posted on 9/10/26 at 2:45 pm to Lptigerfan
it would be OU -8.5 on a neutral field. Mich is getting 3 for being the home team
Posted on 9/10/26 at 3:08 pm to hookem33
Vegas knows as much as you or I do. I don’t know how the lines are established other than that the objective is to figure out what will generate the most action.
Vegas isn’t the counterparty, they’re merely the market maker.
I’d hammer -5.5. Anyone with eyes can see Michigan is incapable of throwing a forward pass.
Vegas isn’t the counterparty, they’re merely the market maker.
I’d hammer -5.5. Anyone with eyes can see Michigan is incapable of throwing a forward pass.
Posted on 9/10/26 at 3:14 pm to Soonerd78
quote:
Think the lowest anyone held OU was like 13-18 points last year and we are light years better on offense
Oklahoma scored
6 against Texas
17 against LSU
17 against Missouri
They had the 12th worst scoring offense in the SEC last year. In SEC games, they only averaged 21 ppg. They scored greater than 26 points once against a P4 team, 33 against Tennessee who had one of the worst coring defenses in the SEC.
I don't think it's unreasonable to expect this to be a low scoring game regardless of how bad the Michigan offense looked last weekend
Posted on 9/10/26 at 3:21 pm to Lptigerfan
Should be a defensive game
Give me Oklahoma 23-13
Give me Oklahoma 23-13
Posted on 9/10/26 at 3:27 pm to OKinTX21
quote:
I’d hammer -5.5. Anyone with eyes can see Michigan is incapable of throwing a forward pass.
“Vegas doesn’t know any more than we do” confuses having access to the same information with being equally good at evaluating it. Their business depends on pricing probabilities and understanding bettor biases. That doesn’t mean Michigan will cover, but “Oklahoma is free money because Michigan looked awful last week” probably isn’t an angle the bookmakers overlooked.
Posted on 9/10/26 at 3:40 pm to NaturalStateReb
Idk if I’d say he is bad, but he has not been developed. Dude would have been shitty at lsu (until this year) or anywhere else that didn’t have an emphasis or excellent qb coach.
It just shows lack of development guy has the tools for the right system, but it may be to late for him to develop it between the ears now he needs a fresh start
It just shows lack of development guy has the tools for the right system, but it may be to late for him to develop it between the ears now he needs a fresh start
Posted on 9/10/26 at 3:44 pm to Lptigerfan
Did a parlay of OU -5.5 and the under. Feeling good.
Posted on 9/10/26 at 4:04 pm to hookem33
quote:
This doesn't always hold true. Sometimes it really IS too good to be true but Vegas isn't in the business of losing money. I think OU wins but I suspect this will be a lot closer than people think.
The line isn't based on Vegas insiders. It's based on how people are betting. The line shifts accordingly
Posted on 9/10/26 at 4:39 pm to LagunaTide
quote:
The line isn't based on Vegas insiders. It's based on how people are betting. The line shifts accordingly
That’s only half true.
Sportsbooks absolutely do move lines based on betting action, but the opening line is not created by public betting. There is no public betting yet. It’s created by oddsmakers using power ratings, matchup data, injuries, home field, models, market expectations, and what they believe will attract action.
And even after betting starts, books are not simply trying to get exactly 50% of the money on each side. If they believe their number is good, they can and do tolerate lopsided action. What they care about is managing risk and setting the most efficient price possible.
So when Oklahoma is only -5.5 in a matchup where the average fan thinks, “How is this not Oklahoma -10? Free money,” that is exactly when I pay attention. It doesn’t mean Vegas has some secret insider telling them Michigan is going to cover. It means a very sophisticated betting market has had every opportunity to hammer an apparently obvious number, and yet the number is still sitting there.
The better question isn’t “Does Vegas know the final score?” Of course not.
It’s: Why is Vegas willing to keep selling Oklahoma -5.5 when seemingly everybody thinks Oklahoma is the obvious side?
This post was edited on 9/10/26 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 9/11/26 at 6:38 am to T1gerNate
It moved to OU -5. Who are these people putting money on Michigan? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Posted on 9/11/26 at 6:46 am to T1gerNate
quote:
Who are these people putting money on Michigan
some schools have huge alum bases that wear rose colored glasses. Same reason ND is always overhyped
Posted on 9/11/26 at 8:03 am to Lptigerfan
Easy money
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