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National Team ranking - recruting avg - 2016
Posted on 2/19/16 at 9:20 am
Posted on 2/19/16 at 9:20 am
Food for thought in the off-season
This is the national ranking for the 2016 CFB season based on average recruiting-class rank 2012-16. I've found this to be moderately useful to predict wins and losses. Generally, teams within about 10 avg. points are close to being a toss-up.
Of note is how dominant the SEC is in recruiting. Mississippi State (for instance) is in the same general recruiting category as Stanford, Nebraska, Baylor, Miami, and Michigan State. Let that sink in for a moment... last year Miss State was theoretically as talented as the B1G conference winner!
Of course this ranking is just for freshman recruits and makes no adjustment for development, age, experience. Nor does it take into account the increasing effect of Jr. College players and graduate transfers. Nor does this ranking account for coaching and game planning, or details such as the effect of an exceptional QB, lack of serviceable players at key positions, failure to recruit a well-rounded team, internal leadership, etc.
AND... teams do get upset all the time regardless of recruiting rank differential (example: see Houston over FSU bowl game last year)...which is why we play the game.
This is the national ranking for the 2016 CFB season based on average recruiting-class rank 2012-16. I've found this to be moderately useful to predict wins and losses. Generally, teams within about 10 avg. points are close to being a toss-up.
Of note is how dominant the SEC is in recruiting. Mississippi State (for instance) is in the same general recruiting category as Stanford, Nebraska, Baylor, Miami, and Michigan State. Let that sink in for a moment... last year Miss State was theoretically as talented as the B1G conference winner!
Of course this ranking is just for freshman recruits and makes no adjustment for development, age, experience. Nor does it take into account the increasing effect of Jr. College players and graduate transfers. Nor does this ranking account for coaching and game planning, or details such as the effect of an exceptional QB, lack of serviceable players at key positions, failure to recruit a well-rounded team, internal leadership, etc.
AND... teams do get upset all the time regardless of recruiting rank differential (example: see Houston over FSU bowl game last year)...which is why we play the game.
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 10:51 am
14
Posted on 2/19/16 at 9:22 am to Jacknola
It would be interesting to see one with attrition taken into consideration
Posted on 2/19/16 at 9:23 am to UAtide11
Yep, very interesting. Good stuff.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 9:35 am to Jacknola
Would be interesting to see impact of 2012 guys too. Schools like Alabama and LSU rarely have redshirt seniors then there's schools like Wisconsin who seemingly redshirt everyone and they have a ton of redshirt seniors. Hard to weight that into this.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 9:36 am to UAtide11
In the gray-ed out area the 2012 rankings are shown. So you can calculate that impact somewhat. But now we are into "development" ... which is a different thing from recruitment rank. A DNA test to check for individual maturity would be useful.
Methodology may (or may not) be improved by taking the numerical grade 247sports gives each recruit and using that along with current rosters. However, when I've tried that I don't seem to get an improvement in predictability of team strength. I'm pretty sure that football being such a team game, an aggregate of individual strength might project potential but may not be that reliable head to head.
However, just the recruiting ranking may have some intangible advantages. One being the recruiting rank for a year may reflect the drive and competence of the coach staff and the organization of the entire program.
In any case, fun to look at.
Methodology may (or may not) be improved by taking the numerical grade 247sports gives each recruit and using that along with current rosters. However, when I've tried that I don't seem to get an improvement in predictability of team strength. I'm pretty sure that football being such a team game, an aggregate of individual strength might project potential but may not be that reliable head to head.
However, just the recruiting ranking may have some intangible advantages. One being the recruiting rank for a year may reflect the drive and competence of the coach staff and the organization of the entire program.
In any case, fun to look at.
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 9:42 am
Posted on 2/19/16 at 9:39 am to Jacknola
Yea, I posted something like this a month or so ago and a lot of us talked about how the best way would probably be to only take 75% of the current senior class and add in 25% of the redshirt senior class from the year before and also take down freshman rating to 25-50% since most of them do not contribute a whole lot their first year.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 10:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
One thing that jumps out at me is the athletic potential of USCw. The opener for Alabama against Southern Call will be no gimme. It might be one of the best season-opening national matchups in a long time.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 10:34 am to SummerOfGeorge
Bama-Avg of 1.0 
I mean, college football right now is kinda pointless. One team is getting the number 1 class every single year. It also makes it hard to judge the "coaching abilities" of anyone on Bama's staff. The talent gap just inst fair They have nothing to feel sorry about but geez it just sucks for everyone else
I mean, college football right now is kinda pointless. One team is getting the number 1 class every single year. It also makes it hard to judge the "coaching abilities" of anyone on Bama's staff. The talent gap just inst fair They have nothing to feel sorry about but geez it just sucks for everyone else Posted on 2/19/16 at 10:47 am to lsupride87
quote:
Bama-Avg of 1.0 I mean, college football right now is kinda pointless. One team is getting the number 1 class every single year. It also makes it hard to judge the "coaching abilities" of anyone on Bama's staff. The talent gap just inst fair They have nothing to feel sorry about but geez it just sucks for everyone else
If recruiting rankings and individual talent were the deciding factor in football, you might be right. But recruiting rankings are a trap...they measure the ability to contribute immediately, not the up-side of development because there is no way to measure physical maturity as yet.
And the game is so complex that the individual component is hard to quantify, unlike "flow" games such as basketball and soccer, or "all-star" games such as baseball.
Plus the rankings don't reveal holes in the team, such as a failure to recruit certain positions. And then there are the intangibles of team building. Coach Bryant was famous for team building.
“You must learn how to hold a team together. You must lift some men up, calm others down, until finally they’ve got one heartbeat. Then you’ve got yourself a team.”
This post was edited on 2/19/16 at 10:50 am
Posted on 2/19/16 at 10:54 am to Jacknola
Texas should never be outside the top 5. That is pathetic really.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 10:57 am to Jacknola
21st in the country but 10th in the conference and 6th in the division. FML. 
Posted on 2/19/16 at 10:59 am to Jacknola
Rebels went from 21 to 11 
Hey NCAA
Hey NCAA
Posted on 2/19/16 at 10:59 am to TheCheshireHog
SECw aint no fun
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:02 am to TheCheshireHog
quote:
21st in the country but 10th in the conference and 6th in the division. FML
bruh, I feel ya
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:04 am to TheCheshireHog
quote:
21st in the country but 10th in the conference and 6th in the division. FML
Life in the SEC. Mississippi State (for instance) can have a top team based on recruiting and even coaching in several conferences ... and be at the bottom of the SEC west. Someone has to lose.
Still, Arky was no better last year yet beat LSU, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. What is surprising is that they did not improve their recruiting ranking this year, which is probably why Bert was so peeved...
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:07 am to Jacknola
quote:
What is surprising is that they did not improve their recruiting ranking this year, which is probably why Bert was so peeved
Bert is never going to have a high ranking imo based on the kind of guys he wants to recruit. He isn't afraid to go after some unknown kids. I'm not saying he would turn down 5 stars but he does have a different approach.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:13 am to Jacknola
quote:
It might be one of the best season-opening national matchups in a long time.
Great way to open up CFB and get people talking
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:17 am to Jacknola
Pinkel was an incredible coach.
Mizzou is in for some hurt.
Mizzou is in for some hurt.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:18 am to Jacknola
For all the squawking about how coach Boom did a great job recruiting in the last class for USC it seems he was below their recent average.
The only other surprising thing is what adding in 2012 does to Ole Miss.
The only other surprising thing is what adding in 2012 does to Ole Miss.
Posted on 2/19/16 at 11:21 am to cardboardboxer
quote:
For all the squawking about how coach Boom did a great job recruiting in the last class for USC it seems he was below their recent average.
I noticed this as well. For some reason I was thinking they were top 20.
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